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2019年10月21日 23:11:23|来源:国际在线|编辑:中华中文
The price of oil rose on Thursday as Saudi jets bombed Houthi rebels in the Yemeni capital, raising fears that the civil conflict in the Gulf state could escalate into a regional war.油价周四上涨。沙特飞机轰炸也门首都萨那的胡塞(Houthi)反政府武装,外界担心这个海湾国家的国内冲突升级为一场地区性的战争。Saudi Arabia, backed by a 10-country Sunni coalition, launched the air strikes early on Thursday against targets in Houthi-controlled Sana’a, including the airport and a military air base.在由10个国家组成的逊尼派联盟的持下,沙特阿拉伯周四凌晨对胡塞控制的萨那目标(包括机场和空军基地)发动空袭。The Houthis responded by firing rockets across the northern border into Saudi territory.作为回应,胡塞组织在北部边境向沙特境内发射了火箭弹。The Saudi attacks marked a big escalation of the Yemen crisis, in which the Shia Houthis, who are backed by Iran, are fighting to oust the country’s president, Abd Rabbuh Hadi, who is backed by Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies.沙特的袭击标志着也门危机的一大升级。在这场危机中,伊朗持的什叶派的胡塞武装试图推翻也门总统阿卜拉布#8226;哈迪(Abd Rabbuh Hadi),而后者得到沙特及其逊尼派盟友的持。Oil prices rose as much as 6 per cent on Thursday in response to the strikes, though they later fell back slightly. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose .36 to .84 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, rose .62 to .83.空袭发生后,油价周四一度上%,尽管后来略有回萀?国际基准布伦特原油(Brent crude)上涨2.36美元,至每桶58.84美元,而美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)上涨1.62美元,至每桶50.83美元。The fighting has raised concerns about the vulnerability of the Bab el-Mandeb strait between Yemen and Djibouti, which has been identified by the US Department of Energy as a potential “chokepointin the global oil market.这场战火引发了人们对于也门和吉布提之间的曼德海峡(Bab el-Mandeb strait)脆弱性的担忧,美国能源部认为这里是全球石油市场一个潜在的“阻塞点”。On average, almost 4m barrels of oil pass daily through the strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea and is only 18 miles wide at its narrowest point. Tankers carrying crude from Saudi Arabia, the ed Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq have to pass through it to reach the Suez Canal and Europe.平均而言,每天有00万桶石油通过这一连接红海与亚丁湾和阿拉伯海的海峡,其最窄处的宽度只8英里。从沙特、阿联酋、科威特和伊拉克出发的油轮,必须通过这个海峡才能抵达苏伊士运河乃至欧洲。But analysts say neither side in the Yemen conflict has the kind of weaponry that would pose a serious threat to tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb.但分析师们表示,也门冲突双方都没有足以对曼德海峡的油轮构成严重威胁的那种武器。Richard Mallinson, geopolitical analyst at Energy Aspects, said he doubted the Houthis could carry out a “sustained campaign against shipping and also noted there was “no real threat to Saudi territory or oil productionEnergy Aspects的地缘政治分析师理查#8226;马林Richard Mallinson)表示,他对胡塞武装“对航运展开持续攻击”的能力表示怀疑,并指出,“沙特境内或石油生产并未真正受到威胁”。However, the overnight strikes set the stage for a broader, more direct confrontation between Shia Iran and Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC).然而,这波夜间空袭为什叶派的伊朗与沙特及其逊尼派盟友在海湾合作委员GCC)展开更广泛、更直接的对抗搭起了舞台。来 /201503/367315

Argentina’s 12-year dispute with a group of hedge funds holding out for full payment on defaulted Argentine bonds is proving to be one of the most wasteful debt restructurings in history.阿根廷与一群坚持要求全额偿付其违约债券的对冲基金长2年的争执,已明是历史上最耗神耗力的债务重组之一。During the past few years an unedifying legal battle waged in New York courtrooms has steadily unpicked the restructurings that allowed Argentina to pick up the pieces after its bn default in 2001. Basing their rulings on a tight definition of the so-called pari passu clause that guarantees equal treatment for bondholders, US judges have declared it illegal for Argentina to make payments to the holders of restructured bonds unless it includes full payments to holdouts too.过去几年里在纽约法庭上展开的不光的诉讼战,逐步破坏了阿根廷的债务重组努力,后者本会让阿根廷在200150亿美元债务违约之后重整旗鼓。按照他们对所谓的同等权益条款(pari passu clause)的严格定义,即所有债券持有人有权得到同等对待,美国法官宣布阿根廷向接受重组的债券持有人偿付是不合法的,除非偿付也包括向拒绝重组的债权人全额偿付。This week, the unresolved dispute reached its doleful climax. Unwilling to bow to the demands of the holdouts, and consequently unable to keep the restructured bonds current either, Buenos Aires threw up its hands and gave up on its attempts to pay its creditors under US law.本周,久拖不决的争执达到了令人沮丧的顶峰。由于不愿屈从那些拒绝重组债权人的要求,从而也无法推进偿付接受重组的债券持有人,阿根廷政府放弃了按照美国法律偿付债权人的努力。Neither side can claim the moral high ground. Central to the holdoutscase has been that in two restructurings, Argentina strong-armed creditors into accepting a savage haircut worth just 25 cents on the dollar. Yet if warrants linked to economic growth are added, the payouts have in some cases been worth much more.双方都不能说占据了道德高地。拒绝重组债权人的核心论点是,在两次重组中,阿根廷都威逼债权人接受折后仅余债券面5%的野蛮折haircut)。然而,如果加上与经济增长挂钩的权,某些情况下的偿付价值要高得多。Of greater systemic concern, the points of law in the hedge fundsfavour have led to a situation where it will be easier for other holdouts to block future sovereign restructurings. This is an unwelcome possibility, however difficult Argentina’s behaviour has been.就更大的系统性担忧来说,有利于对冲基金的法律观点已导致一个情况,即其他拒绝重组的债权人将更容易阻碍未来的主权债务重组。这是一个不受欢迎的可能性,无论阿根廷的行为多么令人不快。President Cristina Fernández has revelled in her “won’t pay, can’t payattitude. While this is central to her political image as someone who takes on financiers and wins, it is also a fiction. Argentina’s restructurings have not reopened international markets. The bigger worry is that her intransigence poses a real threat to the economic wellbeing of her compatriots. Although the initial reaction has been muted, Argentina’s default is likely to lead to a squeeze in trade finance and higher borrowing costs. Argentina has no easy options. Restructuring all of its debt into bonds issued under local law would be one way of thumbing its nose at the pesky holdouts and the US courts. But the costs would be huge. A general default could lock the country out of capital markets for years at a time when it needs international capital to develop its deposits of shale gas.阿根廷总统克里斯蒂#8226;费尔南德Cristina Fernández)沉迷于其“不会偿付、偿付不了”的态度。尽管这对她塑造与金融家较量并取得胜利的政治形象至关重要,但这种态度也只是个幻想。阿根廷的债务重组没有重新打开国际市场。更大的担忧在于,费尔南德斯的不妥协对其同胞的经济福祉造成了实实在在的威胁。尽管市场反应最初波澜不惊,但阿根廷违约可能导致贸易融资紧张和借款成本上升。阿根廷没有轻松的选择。将所有债务重组为按照当地法律发行的债券,将是向恼人的拒绝重组债权人和美国法庭表达蔑视的一种方式。但这样做的代价将是巨大的。全面违约将让阿根廷在需要国际资本以开发页岩气资源之际,多年无法进入资本市场。That leaves settling, which has difficulties too. For instance, it exposes Argentina to claims from other holdouts, which Buenos Aires costs at bn. Another problem is the so-called RUFO clause in the restructured bonds. This prohibits Argentina from offering investors more than the 30 cents on the dollar it paid holders that accepted the restructuring.那么就只剩下和解,但这也很困难。例如,阿根廷将面对其他拒绝重组债权人的索偿,阿根廷政府估计索偿规模50亿美元。另一个问题是债务重组中所谓的“未来发行权利”条Rights upon Future Offers,简称RUFO)。之前阿根廷向接受重组的债券持有人偿付面值的30%,而RUFO条款规定,阿根廷现在向投资者付的赔偿不得超过这一比例。Allowing the stand-off to continue profits no one. Meanwhile, the holdouts are racking up legal fees and must want to settle. The outlines of a deal exist. Argentina could meet the holdoutsclaim, or some compromised figure, with fresh bonds, issued on a deferred basis to sidestep the RUFO clause which expires at the end of 2014. All the holdouts could be invited in, settling the problem for good.让僵局持续下去不会令任何人受益。与此同时,拒绝重组的债权人的诉讼费用不断攀升,他们必然希望和解。和解协议的轮廓是存在的。阿根廷可以以延期方式发行新债券,避开将于2014年底到期的RUFO条款,来满足拒绝重组债权人的索偿要求,或达成一个折中数字。所有拒绝重组的债权人都可以受邀加入,彻底解决这个问题。Whether this can be agreed swiftly, if at all, is another matter. Indeed the case once again illustrates the need for a better way of managing sovereign defaults. The collective action clauses since introduced into many bond contracts, which oblige minorities to accept majority writedowns, are no fail safe. The pari passu clause should be scrapped, even at the price of higher borrowing costs.这一方案能否迅速达成一致(如果真的会达成一致的话)则是另一回事。实际上,此案再次说明亟需一种更好的方式来管理主权债务违约。后来很多债券合约中引入的集体行动条款也并非万全之策,这种条款迫使少数债权人接受多数债权人同意的减记比例。应取消同等权益条款,就算以更高的借款成本为代价也在所不惜。In the absence of clarity, well-paid lawyers to hedge funds will continue to exploit the confusion in other debt workouts, and perhaps other jurisdictions. Debt bondage of this kind is the last thing the world needs.在没有明确解决方案的情况下,对冲基金聘请的收入不菲的律师,将继续利用其他债务重组方案、乃至其他司法管辖地区的含混之处。这种债务奴役是这个世界最不需要的。来 /201408/319456

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