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2018年07月22日 12:35:40 | 作者:医护养生 | 来源:新华社
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un...is this beginning of a beautiful bromance?普京和金正恩,这是一段美好兄弟情的开始吗?Increasingly isolated from the leaders ofmajor world powers, Russian President Vladimir Putins governme nt announced on Wednesday that it had entered into a ;Year of Friendship; with nuclear-armed pariah state North Korea.由于渐渐受到世界主要强国的领导人孤立,俄总统普京政府周三宣称已经与拥有核武器的国家朝鲜进入了“朝俄友好年”。Russia and North Korea announced thearrangement through their respective government-owned media outlets. The Korean Central News Agency said the move ;was caused by their joint bid to achieve ahigher level in political, economic and cultural relations.;俄罗斯和朝鲜通过各自的媒体宣布了这个安排。朝中社说这个举动是为了;加强政治,经济和文化方面的关;。Russias ambassador to North Korea, Alexander Matsegora, said that Putin and North Korean leader KimJo un are in frequent contact. ;An active political dialogue ismaintained at the highest and high level,; Ma tsegora told Russian news agency TASS. ;The leaders of the two countries regularly exchange messages.;俄罗斯驻朝鲜大使说普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩正在频繁接触。“双方的政治会谈以最高的级别在进行着,”他对俄塔社说:“两国领导人经常交换信息”。Matsegora said that Russia believes thereis room for significant expansion of the economic relationship between the two countries. ;Taking into account the considerable unused potential, we are not yet satisfied with the level of its development,; he said. ;A lot has to be done in this direction in the future.; This would include financial cooperation, as well as trade and investment deals.他说俄罗斯方面相信两国在经济合作方面还有很大的扩展空间;考虑到还有很多的潜力没有被利用到,所以我们对目前的合作水平还不是很满意。”他说;在这方面未来还有很多的事情需要做。”这将包括金融合作,以及贸易和投资协议。来 /201503/364171August 1914 was a descent into hell. May 1945 was an escape from hell. July 2015, the month of a surreal Greek referendum that had no clear question and an answer whose meaning is disputable, will go down in history as a continuation of hell for Greece, and for Europe.1914月欧洲坠入地狱945月,欧洲逃离地狱015月将作为希腊乃至整个欧洲再次滑入地狱的日子载入史册——在这个月里,希腊举行了离奇公投,这次公投没有提出明确的问题,而给出的是否有何意义也颇具争议。Policy makers in some eurozone capitals will shed crocodile tears and explain the No vote as a regrettable, but voluntary act of Greek self-exclusion from Europe’s monetary union. They will unfold a prepared narrative according to which Greece’s European creditors a more accurate term than allies or partners bear no blame whatsoever for this debacle.欧元区一些国家的政策制定者将会流下鳄鱼的眼泪,并把希腊人对国际救助条款说“不”的投票结果解释为,希腊令人遗憾、但自愿地选择从欧洲货币联盟自我排除。他们将拿出已经事先准备好的说辞,而在这种说辞中,希腊的欧洲债权人——比盟友或伙伴更为精确的说法——对这场灾难不承担任何罪责。Secretly, or not so secretly, some will relish getting the head of Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s radical leftist premier, served to them on a platter. But the question to which they will have no convincing answer is what the Greek disaster implies for the cause of European unity or the stability of the Balkans.一些人将私下或公开地希望希腊激进的左翼总理亚历克西#8226;齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)的头颅盛在盘子里呈到自己面前。但是,有一个问题他们将无法令人信地回答:希腊灾难对欧洲一体化的大业或巴尔干地区的稳定意味着什么。In Greece the No vote will widen political fissures in a society knocked senseless by an economic slump. Greeks who voted Yes will treat the outcome as a calamity comparable to the 1922 military defeat at Turkish hands that resulted in the annihilation of Greek civilisation in Asia Minor. Greeks who voted No will rapidly learn that there is no salvation, only misery, ahead.在希腊,否决结果将扩大社会中的政治裂缝,而经济低迷已经把社会打击得失去了理智。投持票的希腊人将会把这种结果视为堪比1922年军事失利于土耳其之手的灾难,当时的失利导致了小亚细亚地区希腊文明的毁灭。投反对票的希腊人将很快明白未来不会有什么救赎,只有痛苦。The question to which no Greeks will have a convincing answer is how, at long last, to put their country on a path of modernisation in which political parties, business oligarchs, trade unions and ordinary citizens act, at least some of the time, in the public interest. As in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo, Greece is doomed to be a ward of Europe for many years to come, a condition that hardly encourages self-reliance and commitment to reform.而希腊人将无法确切回答的问题是,终究该如何让自己的国家走上现代化的正途,使各政党、商业寡头、工会和普通公民至少在某些时候采取符合公众利益的行动。就像波黑和科索沃一样,希腊注定将在未来很多年成为欧洲的一个病区,在这种情况下将很难鼓励其自力更生并下定决心推进改革。Mr Tsipras and his ruling Syriza party were too cunning to phrase the referendum question as “in or out of the euro a wording that would have permitted Greeks to understand that what was really at stake was their modern European identity. As a result, the outcome does not resolve the fundamental conundrum: that most Greeks want to stay in the eurozone but detest the austerity that has bled them dry since 2010.齐普拉斯及其领导的执政党激进左翼联盟党(Syriza)太过狡猾,没有将此次公投的问题描述为“留在还是退出欧元区”,而这种描述本可以让希腊人明白公投真正攸关的是他们的现代欧洲身什?结果,公投并未解决根本问题:多数希腊人希望留在欧元区,但痛恨自2010年以来逐渐榨干他们的紧缩政策。Mr Tsipras and his government will forever bear the responsibility for having thrown away the best cards he had, upon winning Greece’s parliamentary elections in January, for negotiating a new rescue deal with the creditors. Greece had, and still has, a strong case for debt relief. Greece had, and still has, a strong case for shifting the emphasis of a new rescue deal away from austerity and towards economic growth.齐普拉斯及其政府将永远背负罪责——他们在1月一赢得希腊议会选举,就扔掉了与债权人就新的援助协议进行谈判的最好的牌。希腊过去曾经有、现在仍然拥有有力理由,要求债务减免;希腊过去曾经有、现在仍然拥有有力理由,要求新援助协议的重心由紧缩转向经济增长。But with what Loukas Tsoukalis, a Greek economics professor, calls “a lethal combination of arrogance and the diplomatic grace of an elephant the Syriza leadership alienated everyone else in the 19-nation eurozone. It is some feat to unite Europe’s squabbling political leaders just think of the continuing, acrimonious rows over how to handle the refugee crisis in the Mediterranean but Mr Tsipras and his colleagues managed it, bringing catastrophe to their nation.但是,凭借希腊经济学教授劳卡#8226;楚卡里斯(Loukas Tsoukalis)所称的“大象的傲慢和外交优雅的致命组合”,激进左翼联盟党的领导层疏远了由19国组成的欧元区中的所有其他国家。如果能把欧洲争吵不休的政治领导人团结起来,那可算是某种壮举——只需要想想围绕地中海难民危机如何解决的持续不断的激烈争吵便可以明白——但是齐普拉斯及其同僚做到了,只不过给他们自己的国家带来了灾难。Europe’s other leaders should take no comfort from this. Their anti-Greek unity is hollow. In theory, the Greek horror show ought to inspire them with the will to grasp the nettle of building the more cohesive banking, economic, fiscal and political union that is essential to the survival of the monetary union launched in 1999. There are, indeed, concrete policy proposals to this effect: the so-called Five PresidentsReport, published by Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission chief, last month.欧洲其他领导人不应该对此感到幸灾乐祸。他们的反希腊联盟是没有意义的。从理论上讲,希腊的恐怖秀应该激起他们迎难而上、打造更有凝聚力的、经济、财政和政治联盟的决心——这对这个于1999年建立的货币联盟的存续至关重要。现在的确有以此为目的的具体政策提议—欧盟委员European Commission)主席克洛#8226;容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)于上个月公布的所谓的“五总管报告Five PresidentsReport)。But in reality each European government is pulled this way and that by the national public opinion from which each, ultimately, derives its legitimacy. This might have been less of a problem if, as Wolfgang Sch#228;uble, Germany’s finance minister, suggested in 1994, European monetary union had been limited to a “hard corecentred on Germany and a small group of advanced, neighbouring countries.但是事实上,每一个欧洲国家政府都被各自的国内公众意见拽向不同方向,因为它们最终都从后者获得合法性。如果如德国财长沃尔夫冈#8226;朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Sch#228;uble) 1994年建议的,欧洲货币联盟被限制在以德国为中心的“中坚核心”以及少数邻近的发达国家内,上述情况可能问题没那么大。But the expansion of the eurozone into central, eastern and southern Europe changed the picture. Some of the governments that advocate the strictest possible line in the Greek debt crisis are former communist countries that joined the EU in 2004 and, remaining short of western European levels of prosperity, voice outrage at the notion of special treatment for Greece.但是欧元区扩大至欧洲中部、东部和南部,改变了这种局面。一些主张对希腊债务危机采取最严厉立场的政府,是在2004年加入欧EU)的前共产主义国家的政府,这些国家仍然没赶上西欧的繁荣水平,它们对给予希腊特殊待遇表达了愤怒。Too many eurozone policy makers are complacent about the risks of political and financial contagion from the Greek nightmare. Arguably, these risks will not emerge in the short term, with the European Stability Mechanism firewall in place and the European Central Bank committed to whatever emergency action is required to protect the eurozone.太多的欧元区政策制定者对希腊噩梦带来的政治和金融蔓延风险掉以轻心。或许,有欧洲稳定机European Stability Mechanism)防火墙,有欧洲央ECB)承诺采取任何必要的紧急行动来保护欧元区,这些风险短期内不会出现。But in years to come, the dangers will become all too evident. Unless a stronger union is built, on solid democratic foundations, Europe’s hell will persist.但是在未来数年,这种危险将变得十分明显。除非在坚实的民主基础上建立更强大的联盟,否则欧洲将会持续在地狱中煎熬。来 /201507/384633This winter Jim Ratcliffe, the British billionaire founder of Ineos, the chemicals group, is trying to spark a local shale gas revolution. He has offered to share 6 per cent of future revenues with communities or landowners if they work with Ineos to develop the energy source far more than anything offered in the UK before.今年冬季,英国亿万富翁、化工制造商英力Ineos)的创始人吉姆#8226;拉特克里Jim Ratcliffe)希望掀起一场本土的页?气革呀?他提出,如果社区或土地所有者与英力士合作开发页岩资源,就会给予他们6%的未来收益,这远远超过英国以前的分成比例。“This will be a game changer,he argues, explaining that he copied the idea of a 6 per cent pledge from America, where similar handouts have helped start a dramatic expansion of shale gas extraction since 2010.他表示:“这将改变局面,”并解释称,6%分成的想法是从美国照搬过来的。自2010年以来,美国类似的分成计划帮助启动了页?气的大规模开采。In truth, the chances of this offer being widely accepted are not high: extracting shale gas remains so contentious in the UK that it has hitherto largely been blocked. But Mr Ratcliffe deserves a cheer for trying. To understand why, take a look at the latest World Economic Outlook report from the International Monetary Fund, released this week.实际上,这种分成承诺得到广泛认可的几率并不高:在英国,页岩气开采仍备受争议,迄今为止基本上遭到否决。但我们有必要为拉特克里夫的尝试欢呼。要明白这一点,先让我们看一看国际货币基金组IMF)上周公布的最新的《世界经济展望World Economic Outlook)报告吧。Buried in the document is a sidebar which tries to calculate the impact of the shale revolution on US industry. The results are sobering, not just for European industrial groups, but taxpayers and politicians too.该报告中有一份不起眼的补充阅读,试图计算出页岩革命对美国行业的影响。无论对欧洲工业集团还是对纳税人和政界人士来说,其结果均发人深省。As the IMF points out, the revolution in the US has caused natural gas prices to fall sharply there, even as they have risen in Europe and Japan. This is because gas, unlike oil, cannot be easily transported around the world, meaning that regional prices vary widely according to the location of the energy source.正如IMF所指出的那样,美国的页岩革命导致国内天然气价格大幅下跌,即便欧洲和日本的价格却在上涨。这是因为,与石油不同,天然气不容易在全球运输,这意味着,区域天然气价格可能会因资源位置不同而有极大的差异。Earlier this year a paper released by the US Federal Reserve calculated that these price variations had boosted the output of American manufacturers by 3 per cent since 2006, while raising investment by 10 per cent and jobs by 2 per cent; the impact on specific energy-linked industries was far higher. However, the IMF’s research suggests that the difference in energy costs has boosted US manufacturing exports by 6 per cent, and it argues that each 10 per cent fall in the relative price of natural gas in the US will boost US industrial production by a further 0.7 per cent, compared to that of Europe.今年早些时候,美联Fed)在其发表的一篇文章中估计,自2006年以来,这种价格差异使得美国制造商的产出扩%,投资增0%,就业增%;具体的能源相关行业受到的影响则更大得多。然而,IMF的研究显示,能源成本的差异导致美国制造业出口增长6%,并辩称,美国天然气价格相对欧洲每下0%,工业产出就会高.7%。At first glance, this 0.7 per cent differential may not sound important. But if this gap is maintained over several years, the impact for competitiveness and output will be significant. It is not just the productivity statistics that matter; what the shale gas revolution has also done is create something that the IMF report does not mention: a transatlantic gap in psychology.乍一看,这个0.7%的差距可能听上去不太重要。但如果这个差距维持多年的话,它对竞争力和产出的影响将是巨大的。重要的不仅仅是生产率数据;页?气革命还产生了一些IMF报告没有提及的东西:大西洋两岸的心理差距。For many business leaders in America today, shale gas has not merely lowered energy costs; it has also fostered new respect for technological innovation. Think about it. A decade ago it seemed almost impossible to imagine that America might ever break its dependence on Middle East oil imports, let alone see some rust-belt industries become competitive.对于如今美国很多的企业领袖而言,页岩气不仅降低了能源成本;它还培育出人们对技术创新的新的尊重。想想看,就在十年前,美国打破对中东石油进口的依赖还几乎是不可想象的,更别提让一些“锈带”行业获得竞争力了。Shifting attitudes are helping to spur a second change: as American businesses enjoy the benefits of lower energy costs, a new spirit of collaboration is taking hold among environmentalists, politicians and energy groups. Take Colorado. Previously, environmental groups were strongly opposed to the expansion of shale gas. But some, such as the Environmental Defense Fund, are now working with John Hickenlooper, the governor, to find ways to deal with issues such as methane gas leakage or water contamination. “There is a recognition now that people need to work together,observes Fred Krupp, head of EDF. “This is sping to other states.”态度的转变帮助激发了第二种变化:随着美国企业享受到能源成本下降带来的好处,环保主义者、政界人士以及能源组织升腾起一种新的合作精神。以科罗拉多州为例。此前,环保组织强烈反对大规模开采页岩气,但现在美国环保协会(Environmental Defense Fund)等一些环保组织正与该州州长约#8226;希肯卢珀(John Hickenlooper)合作,以设法解决甲烷气泄漏或水资源污染等问题。“现在的共识是人们需要合作,”美国环保协会负责人弗雷#8226;克鲁珀(Fred Krupp)认为,“这种共识正扩大到其他州。”Not so in Europe; or not yet. This week Nick Clegg, the leader of Britain’s Liberal Democrat party, threw his weight behind shale gas. But many British politicians remain suspicious of fracking, and environmental groups are stridently opposed. In France and Germany, antipathy is even more intense. “There is a such a big gap [in attitudes],laments Edmond Alphandéry, a former French finance minister.欧洲则并非如此,或者说迄今尚未如此。最近,英国自由民主党领袖尼#8226;克雷Nick Clegg)表态持页岩气,但英国的很多政界人士仍对压裂技术存有疑虑,环保组织也表示强烈反对。法国和德国对页岩气的反感甚至更为强烈。法国前财长埃德#8226;阿尔方戴Edmond Alphandéry)哀叹道:“(欧美态度)天壤之别。”This gap partly reflects differences in geography: Britain is a crowded island, and in France the main shale gas reserves are found in places such as Paris and Provence. There are big differences in the legal structure of landholding too. But the other problem, it seems, is one of zeitgeist. American business leaders (and voters) have an incentive to gamble on bold technological change; in Europe, it is harder to dream about pleasant surprises.这种态度上的差异一定程度上反映出地理上的差异:英国是一个人口众多的岛国,而在法国,页岩气储量集中在巴黎和普罗旺斯等地。关于土地所有权的法律架构也存在巨大差异。但另一个问题似乎在于当下的一种时代思潮。美国企业领导人(以及选民)愿意押注于大胆的技术革新;而在欧洲,则很难奢望此类惊喜。Perhaps a few bold pioneers such as Mr Ratcliffe can help change this. It would be nice to hope so. But the longer shale gas remains a dirty word in Europe, the more the transatlantic gap in productivity and psychology will widen. And that is bad news for Europe, at a time when the continent needs every iota of growth it can find.或许,拉特克里夫等少数大胆的开拓者能够帮助改变这种局面。这样想当然不错。但欧洲对页岩气的反感时间越长,欧美生产率(和心理)的差距就会越大。在欧洲亟需任何增长机遇之际,这是一个坏消息。来 /201410/336810

I blame Sebastian Junger. The success of The Perfect Storm, the journalist’s 1997 book about a doomed fishing boat gave embattled corporate titans the perfect metaphor for what went wrong on their watch.我要责怪塞巴斯蒂安#8226;容格(Sebastian Junger)。这名记者撰写了一本关于一艘渔船沉没的小说。这997年出版的《完美风暴The Perfect Storm)的成功给陷入困境的企业巨头提供了一个完美比喻,用来描述发生在他们眼皮底下的变故。So here is Dick Fuld, former head of Lehman Brothers, in his first voluntary public appearance since its collapse, explaining last week why the bank went down in 2008: “It isn’t just one single thing, it’s all these things taken together: I refer to it as a perfect storm.And here is Sepp Blatter, Fifa president, as he prepared the way for his re-election at football’s governing body in Switzerland. Last week’s arrests of Fifa officials, he told delegates, “unleashed a real storm于是雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)前掌门人迪克#8226;富尔Dick Fuld)上周(自2008年雷曼破产以来首次自愿公开露面)解释该行为什么破产时就有了这样的说法:“这不是单一事件造成的,是所有事件叠加在一起造成的:我把它称作一场完美风暴。”还有前些时候在瑞士为自己连任国际足Fifa)主席铺路的塞#8226;布拉Sepp Blatter)。他对与会代表称,上周国际足联官员遭逮捕事件“引发了一场真正的风暴”。((布拉特已在本周二宣布辞去国际足联主席一职——编者注))Blaming extreme weather is popular with controversial leaders, for good reason. The image of navigating through a tempest conveys personal authority and bravery but also lets them plead helpless innocence of the causes and consequences of what is happening. It is the false-heroic middle way between having to admit you are a fool, who had no idea what was going on, or a knave, who fostered the scandal. Instead, they can look like hard-bitten captains on the bridge, braced against the monstrous waves and wrestling with the wheel, while the elements conspire against them.受争议的领导者喜欢指责极端天气,而且还有充分的理由。驾船穿越暴风雨的形象可以表现出他们个人的权威与勇气,也可以让他们对所发生之事的原因与后果辩称自己无助且无辜。正是这种介于虚伪和英勇之间的东西,让你不得不承认自己是一个不知道发生了什么的傻瓜,或是一个闹出丑闻的不诚实的人。相反,他们可以像站在船桥上的顽强船长一样,经受巨浪冲击,牢牢握紧船舵,虽然狂风暴雨在密谋反对他们。These are great days for collectors of leadership brass neck. In China, Li Hejun, chairman of Hanergy, the solar-panel maker, declared last week that talk of an investigation into the company was “purely rumour, there is no such possibilityand said he would be “the first to know if the authorities were really planning a probe Hours after Xinhua, China’s official news agency, aired the interview, the Hong Kong watchdog confirmed it was investigating the affairs of Hanergy Thin Film Power, the group’s listed entity, whose soaring share price crashed last month.如今是收藏家收集领导者“厚脸皮”的大好时期。在中国,太阳能电池板制造商汉能(Hanergy)董事局主席李河君上周宣称,有关该公司受到调查的传言“纯粹是谣言,绝对不可能”,并称,“如果有措施”,他将“第一时间知道”。就在中国官方新闻通讯社——新华社播发这一采访几小时后,香港监管机构实正在调查汉能集团旗下上市公司汉能薄膜发Hanergy Thin Film Power)的事务。该公司飙升的股价上月遭遇了断崖式暴跌。These are not necessarily lies. In Hanergy’s case, the Hong Kong investigation may have been covert, and it is not clear exactly when Mr Li recorded his interview. As for Lehman, it is true that no “one single thingdid for the bank. Mr Blatter’s earlier protest that he “cannot monitor everyone all of the timeis a statement of the obvious, familiar to anyone who has ever run a large organisation.这些未必都是谎言。就汉能而言,香港监会的调查很可能是秘密进行的,而且还不清楚李河君接受采访的确切时间。至于雷曼,的确并非“单一事件”毁了这家。布拉特先前的抗议——他“不可能每时每刻监控每个人的作为”——对于任何掌管过一个大型组织的人来说,都是一份平常而又熟悉的声明。But there is something more corrosive than leaders lying to the outside world and that is leaders deceiving themselves.但是,比起领导者对外界撒谎,还有影响更坏的问题,那就是领导者自欺。Self-belief is a vital part of being an effective leader. Admitting to weakness is taboo. But it is easy for leaders to become overconfident and to start governing just by asserting the facts as they understand them and ignoring otherslegitimate concerns: “Hanergy has never been so good in our history(Li); “Let this be the turning point(Blatter).自信是成为一名高效领导者的重要因素。承认自己的弱点是大忌。但领导者很容易变得过分自信,并开始在治理中坚持他们所理解的事实却忽略其他人的合理关切:“汉能处于历史上最好时期”(李河君语);“让此事件成为转折点”(布拉特语)。Mr Fuld has had nearly seven years since the financial crisis to ponder what really happened in 2008. But he is still trying to shape the narrative.自金融危机爆发以来,富尔德有年时间思008年究竟发生了什么。但他仍在试图编造叙事。Plenty of chroniclers of the meltdown do believe, like Mr Fuld, that the US government was partly responsible for what occurred. Few would agree, however, that Lehman was a model of prudence, protected, as Mr Fuld put it last week, by 7,000 risk managersin the form of its stockholding employees. On the contrary, as Bethany McLean and Joe Nocera wrote in All the Devils Are Here, instead of trying to limit exposure to the US housing market between 2006 and 2008, Lehman “decided to double down#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;by financing and investing in big commercial real estate deals像富尔德一样,很多此次金融崩盘的记录者都确信,美国政府对所发生的事情负有部分责任。但很少有人会同意,雷曼是谨慎的典范,而且受到.7万名风险经理”以持股员工的形式进行的保护(像富尔德上周所说的)。相反,正如贝塔#8226;麦克莱恩(Bethany McLean)与乔#8226;诺切Joe Nocera)在他们合著的《群魔乱舞All the Devils are Here)一书中所写的,在2006年至2008年期间,雷曼不但没有设法减少对美国住房市场的敞口,而是“决定通过融资和投资于大型商业地产交易……进行双倍下注”。Later, Hank Paulson, former US Treasury secretary, told the Lehman bankruptcy examiner that Mr Fuld was “a person who heard only what he wanted to hear Such self-delusion also plagues Mr Blatter. It is the signature trait of overreaching leaders and a clear signal of potential disaster ahead.后来,美国前财长汉克#8226;保尔Hank Paulson)告诉负责雷曼破产的审查员:福尔德是“一个只听悦耳言论的人”。这样的自欺欺人同样表现在布拉特身上。这是权力过度延伸的领导者身上的鲜明特征,也是未来可能发生灾难的一个苗头。Compare the Fifa president’s attempt to brazen out the scandal with the way key players reacted in 2001 as Enron imploded. Three weeks after the energy company filed for bankruptcy, but before the extent of the saga of its corruption and self-dealing became clear, Jeff Skilling, former chief executive, talked to the Houston Chronicle. Remember that Skilling, who was later jailed for his role in the affair, had cosigned Enron’s last letter to shareholders, calling it “the right company with the right model at the right time我们可以将布拉特厚颜无耻应对丑闻的做法001年安Enron)内爆后主要人物的反应方式进行对比。这家能源公司申请破产三周之后(但在其腐败和谋私交易的各项细节浮出水面之前),前首席执行官杰#8226;斯基Jeff Skilling)接受了《休斯顿纪事报Houston Chronicle)的采访。请记住他——后来斯基林因其在安然事件中的角色而入狱——联署了安然致股东的最后一封信,称这是“正确的公司在正确时间拥有的正确模式”。“What brought Enron down?the reporter asked him. “A perfect storm,he replied.“什么原因导致安然破产?”记者问他。“一场完美风暴,”他回答说。来 /201506/378953

Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras returned to Athens yesterday facing a rebellion within his own government after he accepted the most intrusive programme ever mounted by the EU as the price for a new 86bn bailout to keep Greece in the eurozone.希腊总理亚历克西#8226;齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras,见上图)昨日返回希腊。作为新获得860亿欧元救助资金以让希腊留在欧元区的代价,他接受了欧盟(EU)有史以来提出的干预性最强的计划,这使他在自己的政府内面临造反。Mr Tsipras was set to rely on opposition support to pass a swath of economic reform measures by tomorrow’s EU-imposed deadline or face bankruptcy, as a growing number of far-left MPs voiced opposition to the deal, Greece’s third bailout in five years. The ruling Syriza party’s extremist Left Platform called it a “humiliation of Greece这是希腊5年内的第三次救助方案,越来越多极左翼议员表示反对该协议,齐普拉斯要依靠反对派的持,以在欧盟设定的最后期限(本周三)内通过一系列经济改革措施,否则希腊将面临破产。执政党激进左翼联Syriza)中的激进派Left Platform称该协议是“希腊的耻辱”。The leader of the Independent Greeks, the rightwing coalition partner, also said that his party could not agree to the accord, calling it a “coup by Germanyand its hardline eurozone allies.作为激进左翼联盟的联盟伙伴,右翼的“独立希腊人Independent Greeks)的领袖同样也表示,他所属的政党不可能同意这项协议,称其为“德国(及其强硬的欧元区盟国)发起的偷袭”。The agreement eased the greatest crisis facing the EU and its eurozone core, fending off at least for now Greece’s exit from the single currency.这项协议缓解了欧盟和欧元区核心国面临的最大危机,至少暂时阻止了希腊退出单一货币。But the deal was reached only after a fraught 17-hour summit of eurozone leaders that pitched Mr Tsipras against German chancellor Angela Merkel. Officials said that “Grexitappeared imminent near 6am on Monday, when both prepared to walk away from talks, convinced that no deal was possible.但这项协议是在欧元区各国领导人进行了充满焦虑7个小时的峰会后才达成的,齐普拉斯和德国总理安格#8226;默克Angela Merkel)在会上针锋相对。官员们表示,周一早上点的时候,“希腊退欧”似乎即将成为现实,齐普拉斯和默克尔都准备离开谈判桌,认为根本不可能达成任何协议。Instead, they agreed terms that a diplomat from one German-allied country likened to turning Greece into an economic protectorate, including a plan to place the country’s most valuable publicly owned assets into a 50bn privatisation fund supervised by the EU.不过,他们最终达成了协议。一位德国盟国的外交官称他们商定的条款将希腊变成了一个经济受保护囀?条款包括将希腊一些最具价值的公共资产,纳入一00亿欧元的私有化基金,该基金由欧盟监管。Mr Tsipras accepted plans for a high level of domestic economic supervision by the bailout monitors, including the IMF, and a public administration overhaul overseen by Brussels.齐普拉斯接受了由包括国际货币基金组织(IMF)在内的救助方案监督者对希腊国内经济进行高级别监督,以及由欧盟监督希腊进行公共行政全面改革的计划。He must also implement a list of economic pledges including an overhaul of the country’s value added tax system and sweeping pension reforms by tomorrow as a precondition for formal negotiations this week on a financing package to stave off the bankruptcy of the fast-deteriorating economy.本周三结束之前,齐普拉斯还必须通过一系列经济承诺——包括彻底改革该国增值税体制,全面改革养老金——这是在本周对一揽子融资方案进行正式谈判的先决条件,该融资方案的目的是阻止希腊快速恶化的经济陷入破产。Ms Merkel said that once Greece took steps to legislate reforms there would be an agreement that she could “recommend with full convictionto the German parliament. French president Fran#231;ois Hollande said: “At some point we thought we might lose a member of the eurozone; but Europe would have retreated, we needed to succeed.”默克尔表示,一旦希腊设法对改革立法,就会有一份能够让她“充满信心地推荐给”德国议会的协议。法国总统弗朗索瓦#8226;奥朗Fran#231;ois Hollande)表示:“我们一度以为我们可能会失去欧元区的一个成员,但那样欧洲将退步,我们当时必须成功。”Investors welcomed the accord, pushing stocks in Europe up by nearly 2 per cent, but there was no euphoria, reflecting the political obstacles that still lie ahead, not least in Athens. Sovereign debt markets initially rallied before cooling later in the day.投资者对这项协议表示欢迎,推动欧洲股市上涨了%,但市场并没有一种欢欣鼓舞的情绪,反映出一些政治障碍仍然摆在眼前,尤其是在希腊。主权债务市场一开始出现上扬,但在当天晚些时候回萀?Greek political leaders said the legislation was not at risk of failing because it has wide support of mainstream opposition lawmakers. One EU official said that with Mr Tsipras’s status so unclear, eurozone ministers were likely to wait to see if he survives tomorrow’s vote before finalising a 7bn bridge-financing deal needed so Athens does not default on a bond owed to the European Central Bank yesterday.希腊政治领袖们表示,立法不存在失败风险,因为它得到了主流反对派立法者的广泛持。一名欧盟官员表示,齐普拉斯那边的情况如此不明确,欧元区部长们很可能会静观其变,看齐普拉斯能否挺过本周三的投票,之后才会最终敲0亿欧元的过渡性融资协议,该协议是避免希腊对欧洲央ECB)的债券违约所必需的。来 /201507/385712

Britain has irritated the US by opting to become a founding member of an institution that some view as a part of China’s answer to the World Bank. But this does not mean the decision is a bad one. On the contrary, it is sensible although not without risk.英国选择成为亚洲基础设施投资(Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,简称:亚投的创始成员国,此举激怒了美国。一些人将亚投行视为中国挑战世界(World Bank)计划的一部分。但这不等于说英国做出了一个糟糕的决定。相反,这个决定是合理的,尽管并非没有风险。The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is to have initial capital of bn, which may be doubled. It will finance for example roads and railways in the continent’s developing countries.亚投行的初期注册资本00亿美元,之后可能会增加一倍。该将为亚洲发展中国家的公路、铁路等项目提供融资。China is to be the biggest shareholder with many other Asian countries joining while non-Asian members are restricted to 25 per cent of the shares. Other European countries, including Germany and Italy, have decided to apply; Australia, Japan and South Korea are still in two minds .随着亚洲多个国家的加入,中国将成为亚投行最大股东,而非亚洲成员国的持股比例被限制在25%以内。其他欧洲国家(包括德国和意大利)已决定申请加入;澳大利亚、日本和韩国仍举棋不定。The lender is potentially valuable. Developing countries in Asia are in desperate need of such investment . Private funding of risky and long-term projects is often either expensive or non-existent. The resources of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank are grossly deficient, relative to the needs.亚投行可能意义重大。亚洲发展中国家亟需基建投资。长期高风险项目的私人融资通常要么代价高昂,要么根本就没有。相对于资金需求,世界和亚开ADB)的财力极度匮乏。Thus, the fact that China wishes to invest a part of its .8tn in foreign exchange reserves in the AIIB is good news. That it wishes to do so via multilateral institutions, in which its voice, however loud, will be one among many, is still better. The bank would have a global staff, which should make it less politicised than if China provided the money on its own.因此,中国希望拿出其3.8万亿美元外汇储备的一部分投资于亚投行是件好事。更令人高兴的是,中国希望通过多边机构实施这一投资——在这样的机构中,中国的声音不管多么强大,也将是众多声音中的一个。亚投行将拥有全球性员工,与中国独自提供资金相比,这应会减少该的政治色。For all these reasons, the US should also join. The White House might reply that, however much it would like to do so, it has no chance of getting approval from the current Congress. That may be true. But it is not an argument against participation by other countries.基于这些理由,美国应该也加入。但美国可能回答说:不管美国政府有多希望这么做,也不可能获得本届国会的批准。这或许没错,但不能成为其反对他国加入的理由。Still, the US does have an argument, although it is a baffling one. Western countries, it says, can have more sway by staying outside. That, argues one US official, would be better than “getting on the inside at a time when they can have no confidence that China will not retain veto powers美国还有一个理由,不过这个理由令人困惑。美国表示,西方国家不加入能够产生更大影响。一位美国官员辩称,“在他们无法确信中国不会保留否决权的情况下”,不加入要好于“加入进去”。Yet outsiders will have no influence over an institution that does not need their money. The only hope is from inside. True, it would have been better if the Europeans had agreed on conditions for entry. But it is too late for that.然而非成员不会对一个不需要它们的资金的机构产生任何影响。唯一的希望是加入进去,从内部发挥影响。确实,如果此前欧洲就加入的条件进行了协商,结果就会更好。但现在为时已晚。Jack Lew, US Treasury secretary, has voiced American concerns that the Asian bank would not live up to the “highest global standardsfor governance or lending.美国财长杰克#8226;Jack Lew)表达了美国的担忧:亚投行在治理、贷款方面可能达不到“最高全球标准”。As a former staff member of the World Bank, I must smile. Mr Lew might like to study the Bank’s role in funding Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire, one horrifying example among many.作为世界的一名前员工,听到这句话我就笑了。卢或许愿意研究一下世界在为扎伊尔总统蒙#8226;塞塞#8226;塞科(Mobutu Sese Seko)提供资金方面所扮演的角色,这是众多可怕例子中的一个。It would be good if China’s lender were as pure as the driven snow. But this is a fallen world. At the least, it would be better with a broad membership than without it.如果亚投行像白雪一样纯洁的话,那当然好。但这是一个堕落的世界。至少,拥有广泛的成员国要比没有强。Nor can the US argue with any credibility against competition to the existing institutions. Yes, a risk of a race to the bottom on standards remains. But a possibility also exists that needless red tape would be eliminated.美国也无法令人信地反对加大现有机构面临的竞争。成立新机构,确实可能引发竞相降低标准的风险,但有些多余的繁文缛节也可能因此被废除。The real American concern is that China might establish institutions that weaken the US influence on the global economy. To this I offer four replies.美国真正担心的是,中国建立的金融机构可能会削弱美国对全球经济的影响力。对此我有四点要说。First, the US, Europeans and Japanese treasure a degree of influence on global financial institutions that is increasingly out of line with their position in the world. Moreover, they have failed to exercise that stewardship as well as they ought to have done. Not least, they have insisted on the right to appoint leaders who have been far from consistently excellent.首先,美囀?欧洲和日本看重自身对国际金融机构的巨大影响力,而这种影响力与它们在世界上的地位日益脱节。此外,它们并不是称职的“管理者”。尤其是,他们坚决不放弃对这些机构领导人的任命权,而这些机构历任领导人并不总是优秀的。Second, it is five years since the Group of 20 leading economies agreed on new as that would moderate their outsized influence at the International Monetary Fund. The world is still waiting for the US Congress to ratify the changes. This is an abdication of responsibility.其次,二十国集团(G20)5年前就已同意实行新的配额制度,以降低上述几个国家(或地区)对IMF过大的影响力,而美国国会迄今仍未批准这一变革。这是不负责任的。Third, the world economy would benefit from larger flows of long-term capital to developing countries as well as from a bigger insurance fund than the IMF can offer to countries exposed to “sudden stopsin capital flows.第三,更多长期资金流入发展中国家,以及让面临资金流“突然中断”风险的国家能获得IMF无法提供的更大资金保障,这对世界经济是件好事。Foreign exchange reserves have risen to nearly tn, from about tn at the turn of the millennium, dwarfing the IMF’s resources of less than tn. This indicates the scale of the shortfall. China’s money could push the world in the right direction. That would be an excellent thing.千禧之交,全球外汇储备总额约为2万亿美元,如今已增至2亿美元,这使得IMF不到1万亿美元的资金能力显得微不足道。这种情况反映出资金缺口有多么大。中国的资金可推动世界朝正确的方向前进。这实在是件大好事。Finally, the US criticises the UK for its “constant accommodationof the rising superpower. But the alternative to accommodation is conflict. China’s economic rise is beneficial and inevitable. What is needed is intelligent accommodation.最后,美国批评英国“不断迁就”这个正在崛起的超级大国。但如果不选择迁就,就要选择冲突。中国在经济上的崛起是有益的、也是不可避免的。我们需要做到的是聪明地迁就。Where China offers proposals that make sense for itself and for the world, engagement is more sensible than carping from the sidelines. An erstwhile US policy maker once asked China to be a “responsible stakeholder With the creation of the AIIB, it is doing just that.当中国的提议对自身和世界都有意义的时候,接触比在一旁挑刺儿更明智。曾经有一位美国政策制定者要求中国做一个“负责任的利益相关者”。创立亚投行正是在做“负责任的利益相关者”。Thus, the approach of the UK and other European allies is to be applauded. Moreover, the UK’s decision to join the AIIB could even be a salutary shock to the US.因此,英国以及其他欧洲盟国的做法值得赞赏。此外,英国加入亚投行的决定,对美国甚至可能是个有益的刺激。Yes, it would be desirable if countries with similar interests and values, such as Britain and the US, could speak and act as one. And yes, the UK is taking risks in adopting a line different from that of its most important international partner. But support must not be slavish. That has proved to be in nobody’s interests.当然了,假如拥有相似利益和价值观的国家——比如英国和美国——不管说话还是行动都能一条心,那是可取的。没错儿,英国采取了与其最重要盟友不一致的立场,这是有风险的。然而,对盟友的持不能变味成奴才般的从。事实明,那样对谁都不奀?Moreover, if Britain’s choice makes clear to US policy makers that leadership is not a right but has to be earned, the decision could well prove beneficial. In the years after the second world war, in a fit of presence of mind, the US created the institutions of the modern world. But the world has moved on.此外,如果英国的选择能让美国政策制定者明白,领袖的位置不是一种权利,而是必须靠争取得来的,那么英国这个选择很可能是有益的。二战后那些年,美国凭借冷静的头脑创建起了当代世界的多个国际机构。但世界已经变了。It needs new entities. It must adjust to the rise of new powers. It will not stop, just because the US can no longer engage. If the results are not to America’s liking, it has only itself to blame.世界需要新的机构。它必须做出调整,以适应新的大国的崛起。它不会仅仅因为美国无法继续参与就停止前进。如果美国不喜欢这种结果,那只能怪它自己。来 /201503/366723

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