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2019年09月18日 07:30:35来源:百姓爱问

  • A problem as old as humanity has been solved. We all need to know how we look with a full face of make-up; but we are too lazy to apply it. L’Oréal’s Makeup Genius app allows users to try different looks without getting messy. Among the most enthusiastic adopters of this breakthrough? The Chinese.一个自人类诞生以来就有的问题解决了。我们都想知道我们上完妆的脸会是什么样子;但我们又懒得化妆。欧莱雅(L’Oréal)的一款应用——“千妆魔镜”(Makeup Genius)让用户不必把脸画得乱七八糟就可以尝试不同妆容。哪些人最热衷于使用这项突破性技术?中国人就是其中之一。This is not the only area where the Chinese shopper is leading. In 2013, China’s ecommerce market overtook that of the US, according to a PwC and EIU report, and more than half of China’s internet shoppers are now mobile. Yet overall retail growth has been slowing, and even ecommerce bellwether, US-listed Alibaba, is showing the strain. This week the company cut its top line outlook for the coming quarter, saying that the total value of goods sold will only grow in the mid-single digits.中国消费者领先的不仅仅是这个领域。根据普华永道(PwC)和经济学人智库(EIU)的一份报告,2013年,中国电商市场的规模超过了美国。目前,超过一半中国网购者使用移动端购物。然而,整体零售增长呈现放缓趋势,即使是电商行业的领头羊——在美国上市的阿里巴巴(Alibaba)——日子也不轻松。上周,该公司调低了即将结束的这个季度的业绩预期,称商品交易总额(GMV)将比最初的预期低5%左右。It is tempting to interpret Alibaba’s caution as a sign of broader malaise. It could, however, be that e-consumers’ tastes are simply changing. Chinese millennials, those born since the 1980s, are particularly influential in this regard — and this influence will grow. Those aged 16 to 35 make up nearly a third of China’s population. They outnumber the same cohort in the US by five times. Although they command less aggregate spending power than their US peers, Goldman Sachs estimates that over the next decade the income of this group will grow by tn.阿里巴巴的谨慎很容易被解读为一种更大范围内出现问题的征兆。然而,问题也可能只是网购者的口味在变化。上世纪80年代后出生的中国千禧一代在这方面格外有影响力——而且这种影响力还将继续上升。中国16岁到35岁的人占总人口的近三分之一,数量是美国同代人的5倍。尽管他们的总出能力不如美国的同龄人,但高盛(Goldman Sachs)预测,下一个十年中国这一群体的收入将增长3万亿美元。They are not buying the same items as their parents. More young Chinese choose experience and lifestyle expenditure over tangible status goods; travel and entertainment, for instance, are increasingly popular. Expenditure on “fun” is still less than a tenth of total outlay, compared with around a sixth in the US and Japan. This suggests that companies such as US-listed online travel companies Ctrip and Qunar and mall developer Dalian Wanda — which emphasises entertainment in its shopping centres — stand to benefit. L’Oréal should, too: on a night out, virtual make-up is no substitute for the real thing.他们和他们的父母买的东西不一样。中国年轻人更爱把钱花在体验和生活方式方面,而不是购买彰显地位的有形产品;比如,旅游和正变得越来越受欢迎。该人群在“乐趣”方面的开依然不到总开的十分之一,而在美国和日本,这个比例约为六分之一。这表明,在美国上市的在线旅游公司携程(Ctrip)、去哪儿(Qunar)以及在开发购物中心方面重视体验的开发商大连万达(Dalian Wanda)等公司,很可能会获益于这股潮流。欧莱雅也应该会获益:在外出的夜晚,虚拟化妆可没法替代真正的化妆。 /201509/398790。
  • The crisis in Ukraine has revived memories of the cold war and sparked fears of a new one. But as vulnerable as the country looks – with Crimea annexed and Russian troops on its borders – many are equally discouraged by its economic fragility, including slow growth and a fiscal deficit exceeding 5 per cent of gross domestic product.乌克兰危机再度勾起了人们对冷战的回忆,并引发了人们对新冷战的担忧。然而,就像乌克兰看上去不堪一击(克里米亚被俄罗斯吞并,同时俄罗斯大军压境)一样,很多人对于该国的经济脆弱同样感到失望,包括增长缓慢以及财政赤字对国内生产总值(GDP)的比例高于5%。Yet Ukraine’s economic plight does not mean its economic future has to be bleak. Like Poland in 1989, it has great potential for improvement. And if it addresses its problems with the right reforms it can still release that potential as Poland did quarter of a century ago.然而,乌克兰当前的经济困境并不意味着,其经济未来肯定一片黯淡。与1989年的波兰一样,乌克兰具有经济转好的巨大潜力。如果能够借助适当的改革解决好各个问题,乌克兰仍能像25年前的波兰那样把潜力释放出来。Since the collapse of communism, huge variations in long-term growth have appeared in the former Soviet block While Poland’s gross domestic product had doubled by 2013, that of Ukraine remains below its initial level. Institutional change, or the lack of it, is a key to this divergence. Poland and most other former Soviet countries swiftly restructured state machinery to enable the growth of dynamic, politically autonomous private companies in competitive domestic markets. By contrast in Ukraine, as in Russia, crony capitalism took hold. Politically connected businesspeople can use political patronage to take over the assets of less fortunate entrepreneurs while some politicians use their power to enrich themselves.自从共产主义制度倒台以来,前苏联共和国的长期增长出现巨大差距,到2013年,波兰的GDP翻了一番,而乌克兰仍不及最初水平。体制变革(或者未进行体制变革)是导致这种差距的关键。波兰和其他多数前苏联共和国迅速改组了国家机器,使得活力十足、政治自主的私营企业在有竞争性的国内市场实现了增长。相比之下,乌克兰就像在俄罗斯那样,裙带资本主义生根发芽。有政治人脉的商人可以利用政治保护伞,夺取不那么幸运的企业家的资产,同时一些政客利用手中的权力发财致富。This limits competition, efficiency and structural change, works against small and medium enterprises, curbs investment and fosters a shadow economy. The ensuing poor economic performance and blatant unfairness lead to deep distrust of politicians, who respond by competing for popularity with fiscally disastrous policies such as fuel subsidies. These features of Ukraine’s regime grew worse under President Viktor Yanukovich, ejected last month after the protests in Kiev’s Maidan Square.这限制了竞争、效率和结构性改革,不利于中小企业,同时阻碍了投资并培育了一个影子经济。继而出现的经济表现疲弱和明目张胆的不公平,导致人们对政客的极度不信任,政客们的回应是用能源补贴等有损财政健康的政策来争夺选民的持。在总统维克多#8226;亚努科维奇(Viktor Yanukovich)的领导下,乌克兰政府的这些特点变得更为糟糕,在基辅独立广场爆发抗议后,亚努科维奇在上月遭到驱逐。However, there is no cause for condescension towards Ukrainians. The conditions they inherited from the Societ era, including high inflation and poor state structures, were tougher than those in Poland. Western economies have their own problems arising from mistaken policies. For example, the availability of easy credit led to costly boom-and-bust episodes in the US, Britain, Greece, Spain and Ireland and to delays in structural reforms in Italy and France. So it is no surprise that both problems cropped up in Ukraine, the fastest-growing country in Europe between 2002 and 2008.然而,我们没有理由在乌克兰人面前表现得高人一等。他们从前苏联时代所继承的状况(包括高通胀以及疲弱政府结构),要比波兰更为严峻。西方经济体本身有着因错误政策引发的问题。例如,宽松信贷政策导致美国、英国、希腊、西班牙和爱尔兰出现代价高昂的荣衰期,并导致意大利和法国推迟了结构性改革。因此,这两个问题突然出现在乌克兰就毫不奇怪了,2002年至2008年,乌克兰是欧洲增长最快的国家。More importantly, even though embarking on comprehensive and radical reforms immediately after the collapse of communism has proved more effective, reforms undertaken later have also worked. In the late 1990s Bulgaria rid itself of hyperinflation and recovered from financial collapse by introducing a currency board. It has since displayed impressive fiscal and monetary stability. Poland accelerated privatisation, reformed its pension system and strengthened local government in 1998-2000. A small but competent, cohesive group of reformers with a clear leadership can turn a country around given a political mandate and sufficient time.更为重要的是,尽管事实明,在共产主义倒台后立即启动全面且彻底的改革是更有效的,但以后实行的改革也起到了作用。上世纪90年代末,保加利亚引入了货币发行局制度,消除了恶性通胀并从金融危机中复苏。此后,该国展现出了不俗的财政和货币稳定局面。1998年至2000年,波兰加速了私有化进程,改革了养老金制度并增强了地方政府的实力。如果获得政治授权并假以一定时日,一个规模小但有能力和凝聚力的改革者团队,再加上清晰的领导权是能够让一个国家脱胎换骨的。The general goal of the necessary reforms is clear to many Ukrainians, regardless of which part of the country they live in: replace the existing unfair and inefficient system with the one that increases economic freedom for all; and respect the rule of law, thus generating more rapid and sustained economic growth.对于很多乌克兰人而言,不管他们生活在该国的哪个地区,必要改革的总体目标是清晰的:用一套扩大为全民经济自由的制度来取代目前不公平且低效率的制度;尊重法治,从而实现更快、更长久的经济增长。It is not intellectually difficult to suggest what form a proper package of reforms should take. It has to be broad and introduced rapidly. It should include measures that make both economic and political sense, such as deregulation to smooth the establishment of enterprises, quick auditing and, following appropriate investigation, dissolving the most corrupt parts of the state. The gas sector, a focus of high-level corruption, needs to be restructured; and the stolen assets recovered from officials. Introducing these measures would reduce resistance to the elimination of massive fuel subsidies.从学术上指出一份像样的改革计划应采取何种形式,不是一件难事。它必须覆盖范围广,而且应快速推出。它应该包括在经济上和政治上都行得通的举措,例如放松监管,为企业创立提供便利、快速审核以及在适度调查后,消除政府最腐败的部门。天然气行业(腐败最严重的焦点领域)需要接受重组;被窃取的资产应从官员手中收回。引入这些举措将减小取消巨额燃料补贴所面临的阻力。Many economists and politicians in Ukraine know what should be done. The key is the politics – and there are hopeful signs. A society that produced the Maidan movement shows an impressive capacity for self-organisation. Most Ukrainians know a huge gap has appeared in their standard of living relative to that of, say, Poland, and want it to be bridged. Many understand this requires radical reforms and that such reforms are also crucial for strengthening Ukraine’s position relative to Russia. Finally, most oligarchs do not relish the prospect of operating in a subservient position in a Ukraine dominated by Russia.乌克兰的很多经济学家和政界人士都知道应该采取什么措施。关键是政治,目前的迹象让人充满希望。一个制造了独立广场运动的社会,表现出了了不起的自我组织的能力。多数乌克兰人明白,他们的生活水平与波兰等国存在巨大差距,他们希望弥补这一差距。很多人认为,这需要彻底的改革,而且这种改革对于提高乌克兰与俄罗斯的相对地位至关重要。最后,多数寡头并不期待在一个由俄罗斯主宰的乌克兰低声下气地经商。Which brings me to the final remark. Mr Yanukovich’s downfall has increased Ukraine’s chances of rule of law and democratic reform. This is the most likely reason Vladimir Putin is trying to destabilise the country. The Russian president’s annexation of Crimea has created geopolitical risks that call for a decisive response from a united west. Such a response is also needed to discourage further attempts to destabilise the country and thus obstruct its reforms.接下来是我的结束语了。亚努科维奇的下台扩大了乌克兰实行法治和民主改革的几率。这是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)试图搅乱该国的最有可能的原因。普京吞并克里米亚之举引发了地缘政治风险,需要西方联合起来做出果断回应。要阻止俄罗斯进一步搅乱乌克兰从而阻碍其改革的企图,也需要这种回应。The writer is a former deputy prime minister of Poland and former president of the Polish central bank本文作者是波兰前副总理、波兰央行前行长 /201404/284529。
  • Pope Francis will call for a “drastic reduction” in carbon emissions and lash out against “economic powers” that are opposing efforts to combat climate change, according to an early draft of his forthcoming encyclical on the environment.教皇方济各(Pope Francis)即将发表的一则关于环境的通谕初稿显示,他将呼吁“大幅减少”碳排放,并抨击那些抵制抗击气候变化努力的“经济大国”。The Vatican was due to publish the document — which counts as the highest form of papal teaching in the Catholic Church — on Thursday, but Italian magazine L’Espresso released a 192-page version on Monday.梵蒂冈计划于周四发布这则通谕,但意大利杂志L’Espresso周一发布了一份192页的初稿文本。通谕是天主教会最高形式的教廷文书。Although Vatican officials warned that the text was not final, it nonetheless offered a clear and detailed picture of the 78-year-old Argentine pontiff’s message on the environment, which could emerge as the most enduring legacy of his tenure at the helm of the 1.2bn-strong Catholic Church.虽然梵蒂冈的官员警告说,这一文本并非最终版本,但它已清晰、详细地展现了这位78岁高龄的阿根廷籍教皇在环境问题上的立场,可能成为他执掌拥有逾12亿信徒的天主教会任期内留下的最永恒遗产。In the encyclical, which is timed to bolster the push for a global deal to cut carbon emissions in Paris at the end of 2015, Pope Francis writes that global warming has been caused “mainly by human activity”, even though other factors, such as changes in orbits and the eruption of volcanoes may have played a role.这则通谕是为持2015年底在巴黎达成一项全球削减碳排放协议的努力而发布。教皇方济各写道,全球变暖“主要是由人类活动”引起的,尽管地球运行轨道变化及火山爆发等其他因素可能也产生了影响。He laments that so far efforts to forge solutions to the “environmental crisis” have been stymied by “the refusal of the powerful, [and] the disinterest of the others”.他痛惜道,到目前为止,为解决“环境危机”的努力由于“大国的拒绝(以及)其他国家的漠不关心”而受到阻碍。“The attitudes that are blocking solutions — even among believers — range from denial to indifference to comfortable resignation or blind faith in technology,” he says.他说,“阻碍达成解决方案的态度(甚至在信徒中)包括拒绝、漠不关心、安逸地忍受或者盲目相信科技。”“Many of those who hold more resources and economic or political power seem to focus mainly on disguising problems and hiding their symptoms, and are merely trying to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change,” Pope Francis writes, adding that “speculation” and the “search for a quick profit” tend to ignore environmental impacts.教皇方济各写道,“许多拥有更多资源、经济或政治权力的人似乎主要把精力用在掩饰和隐瞒问题,只是在试着缓和气候变化的负面影响,”并补充说,“投机”和“对快速获利的追逐”往往忽视环境影响。“The submission of politics to technology and finance is proven by the failure of global summits on the environment,” he said.“政治对科技和金融的屈从已从全球环境峰会的失败得到了明,”他说。But Pope Francis is also calling on ordinary people — and not just Christians — to take action in their everyday lives. “Humanity must be conscious of the need to change its way of living, producing, and consuming,” he writes.但教皇方济各也呼吁普通民众(不仅是基督教徒)在日常生活中采取行动。“人类必须意识到改变自己生活、生产和消费方式的必要性,”他写道。Climate change sceptics, particularly in the US, have taken aim at Pope Francis, who is due to address the UN and the US Congress on sustainable development in September.教皇方济各将于9月就可持续发展问题在联合国和美国国会发表演讲。气候变化怀疑论者已将矛头指向教皇方济各,特别是在美国。US Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum, a Catholic and climate change sceptic, has said the Church would be “better off leaving science to the scientists”.美国共和党总统候选人里克#8226;桑托勒姆(Rick Santorum)是一名天主教徒,也是一位气候变化怀疑论者。他说,教会“最好将科学留给科学家处理”。 /201506/381121。
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