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兴化市妇科怎么样JEREMY GRANTHAM#39;S GOT A TRACK RECORD that#39;s impossible to ignore--he called the Internet bubble, then the housing bubble. While moves like those have earned the famed forecaster the nickname #39;perma-bear, #39; in early 2009 he also told clients at GMO, his 0 billion, Boston-based money-management firm, to jump back into the market. It was the same week that stocks hit their post-Lehman low.杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)拥有不容小觑的从业纪录─他成功地预言了互联网泡沫,接着又成功地预言了房地产泡沫。虽说这样的纪录为这位著名的预测大师赢得了“永远的熊市论者”(perma-bear)的绰号,他也曾在2009年初告诉GMO资产管理公司的客户杀回市场。就在那一周,股市正好创下了雷曼公司(Lehman)倒闭后的历史低位。GMO资产管理公司的总部位于波士顿,管理的资产总额为1,000亿美元。Now, however, the outspoken Yorkshireman, who is chief investment strategist at GMO, is making headlines with a new prediction: Dire, Malthusian warnings about environmental catastrophe. To hear him tell it, the world is running out of food. Resources will only keep getting more expensive. And climate change looms over it all. Indeed, at times he sounds like someone Greenpeace would send door-to-door with a clipboard. (He#39;s not above likening the coal-industry spin to the handiwork of Goebbels.) If it were anyone else, Wall Street would probably laugh him off. But because it#39;s Jeremy Grantham, they just might listen.不过现在这位坦率直言的约克郡人、GMO的首席投资策略师,再次用最新的预测抓住了媒体的眼球:他发出马尔萨斯式的悲惨警告,称可能出现环境大灾难。他的观点主要是:世界的食品供应即将告罄;资源的价格只会越变越贵;气候变化迫在眉睫。的确,格兰瑟姆有时候听起来像极了绿色和平组织派出去的拿着材料挨家挨户宣传的工作人员。(他未能免俗地将煤炭业的宣传比作是戈培尔的造势之作)。如果换成别人,华尔街很可能对此一笑置之。但因为他是杰里米·格兰瑟姆,华尔街很可能就会变得洗耳恭听。Q: You#39;ve been ringing alarm bells about commodity prices. Why all the worry?问:对于大宗商品的价格,你一直都在敲响警钟。你为什么会产生这种担忧?A: They came down for a hundred years by an average of 70 percent, and then starting around 2002, they shot up and basically everything tripled--and I mean, everything. I think tobacco was the only one that went down. They#39;ve given back a hundred years of price decline and they gave it back between #39;02 and #39;08, in six years. The game has changed. I suspect the game changed because of the ridiculous growth rates in China--such a large country, with 1.3 billion people using 45 percent of the coal used in the world, 50 percent of all the cement and 40 percent of all the copper. I mean these are numbers that you can#39;t keep on rolling along without expecting something to go tilt.答: 大宗商品的价格在一百年内平均下降了70%,而在2002年前后,大宗商品的价格却出现了井喷式的增长,基本上每种大宗商品的价格都涨到了原来的三倍──我的意思是,几乎没有例外。我认为烟草是唯一价格下降的大宗商品。大宗商品将一百年跌去的价格都涨回来了,而且是在02年至08年的六年间就涨回来了。游戏规则已经改变了。我猜测,游戏改变的原因是中国奇高的增长率──中国是如此庞大的国家,13亿人口消费了全球45%的煤炭、50%的水泥和40%的铜。我的意思是,这些数据不可能持续下去而不导致一些事情失控。Q: This led to some surprising conclusions, like your concerns about natural resources most of us have barely heard of.问:这会令人得出一些意想不到的结论,比如你对于自然资源的担忧。而大多数人还没有听说过这些担忧。A: We went through one by one, and we decided the most important, the most valuable and the most critical was phosphate or phosphorous. Phosphorous cannot be made, only placed. It is necessary for all living things. And we are mining it, and it#39;s depleting. And I like to say, if that doesn#39;t give you goosebumps, then you#39;re tougher than me. That is a terrible equation. So I went to the professors, and I said, what#39;s going to happen, and they said, #39;Oh, there#39;s plenty of phosphorous.#39; But what#39;s going to happen when it runs out? #39;Oh, there is plenty.#39; It#39;s a really weak argument. We do have a lot, but 85 percent of the low-cost, high-quality phosphorous is in Morocco...and belongs to the King of Morocco. I mean, this is an odd situation. Much, much more constrained than oil in the Middle East ever was--and much more important in the end. And the rest of the world has maybe 50 years of reserve if we don#39;t grow too fast.答: 我们对资源逐一进行了研究,我们认为最重要、最有意义以及最严峻的问题是磷酸盐或磷的问题。磷不能经由人工生产,只能自然存储。对于所有的生物来讲,磷都不可或缺。随着我们对磷的开采,这种原材料正在逐渐枯竭。我想说的是,如果这都不能令你感到恐惧的话,那你可比我坚强。这是一个可怕的等式(开采多少,储量就减少多少)。所以,我去向教授们讨教,问他们未来将会怎样。他们说:“哦!磷矿的储量非常丰富。”但是,当磷矿枯竭后又会怎么样呢?“哦,它的储量非常丰富。”这是一个相当无力的论据。我们的确拥有大量磷矿,但是85%开采成本低廉、品质较高的磷矿都位于洛哥……并归洛哥国王所有。我的意思是,这是一种微妙的状况。相较于历史上原油在中东最集中的程度,磷矿的集中程度要高得多;并且从长远来说,磷矿的重要性也高得多。如果实施有节制开采的话,全球其他地区的磷矿储备或许可以再撑50年。Q: What are investors supposed to do?问:投资者应该怎样做呢?A: The investment implications are, of course, own stock in the ground, own great resources, reserves of phosphorous, potash, oil, copper, tin, zinc--you name it. I#39;d be less enthusiastic about aluminum and iron ore just because there is so much. And I wouldn#39;t own coal, and I wouldn#39;t own tar sands. It#39;s hugely expensive to build coal utilities, and the plants they have to build for tar sands are massive, and before they get their money back I suspect that the price of solar and wind will have come down so much.答: 这对投资的潜在启示就是:要拥有地下储藏的东西,拥有重要的资源,不论是磷、钾、原油、铜、锡还是锌─还可以继续数下去。我对铝和铁矿石没有那么高的热情,就因为这两种矿产储备太丰富了。我也不会持有煤炭和含油砂。建造采煤设施非常昂贵,开采含油砂需要建设的设施也规模庞大。我怀疑远在投资方收回成本前,太阳能和风能的价格就已然大幅回落。So I wouldn#39;t use that, but I think oil, the metals and particularly the fertilizers, I would own--and the most important of all is food. The pressures on food are worse than anything else, and therefore, what is the solution? Very good farming, which can be done. The emphasis from an investor#39;s point of view is on very good farmland. It#39;s had a big run. You can never afford to ignore price and value, but from time to time you can get good investments in farmland, and if you#39;re prepared to go abroad, you can do it today. I wouldn#39;t be too risky. I would stay with distinctly stable countries--Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, Brazil, Canada, of course, and the U.S. But I would look around, in what I call the nooks and crannies. And forestry is the same. Forestry is not a bad bargain, a little overpriced maybe, but it#39;s in a world where everything is overpriced today, once again, courtesy of incredibly low interest rates that push people into investing. A wicked plot of the Federal Reserve.所以我不会投资煤炭和含油砂,但是我会投资于原油、金属,特别是肥料─以及比所有这些都重要的粮食。当前,粮食压力比其它各方面的压力都大。那么,解决方案是什么呢?是精耕细作,而这完全可以实现。从投资者的角度来看,重点在于优质的耕地。耕地价格已经涨了很多。你当然不能忽视价格和价值,但是你可以不时地找到不错的耕地投资机会。如果你已经准备好了投资海外市场的话,那么你今天就可以出手了。我本人不愿冒太大风险。我会选择那些非常稳定的国家─比如澳大利亚、新西兰、乌拉圭、巴西、加拿大,当然还有美国。但是,我也会考虑一下那些称作“被遗忘角落”的国家。林业也是如此。林业投资不是会让你吃亏的生意,或许它的价格有点虚高,但是别忘了,我们正处于一个几乎每件东西都价格虚高的世界。不得不说,这都是不可思议的低利率所赐。这是美国联邦储备委员会不道德的伎俩。Q: Why is this problem so hard for us to deal with? You#39;ve railed against short-termism.问:为什么这个问题让我们如此难以应对?你一直抨击短期行为。A: A career politician has a very short horizon. They#39;re not really interested in problems that go out five or 10 years. Secondly, you have what they call the discount-rate effect, which is a dollar in 10 years has a much lower value to a corporation than a dollar today. So they#39;re only interested, at the corporate level, in the short term. And politicians, in the very short term. And you have a vested-interest effect. In other words, it#39;s very hard to get change when the people who are benefitting very nicely, thank you, from the current situation don#39;t want it. If the oil industry is making a bundle, which they are, they don#39;t want to change to a system that recognizes climate change and the need to have a tax on carbon. And they can fund right-wing think tanks, and they do.答: 职业政客的眼界是非常短浅的。他们并不真正关心那些五年或十年之后会出现的问题。第二,还有一个贴现率效应的问题,也就是说,对企业来说,十年之后1美元的价值要远低于今天的1美元。所以,从企业层面上讲,他们最关注短期效应。而政治家关心的是更短时期内的效应。此外,还有既得利益效应。换句话说,当从现状中获益匪浅的人不想改变现状的时候,改变就变得非常困难。如果石油行业正赚得盆满钵满───事实也是如此──他们就不想改变现状去建立一个关注气候变化及征收碳排放税的系统。他们可能资助右翼智库,事实上,他们也是这样做的。So you have vested interests fighting like mad to keep the situation the way it is. And that#39;s always the case. So change is difficult, and with our politicians with the short-term election problems, it#39;s nearly impossible. And when they depend so much on campaign contributions, and they find the campaign contributions come so much from the vested interests, the financial world, but more particularly the energy world, it#39;s a bloody miracle anything gets done.所以既得利益获得者会奋不顾身地保持现状。这是亘古不变的真理。因此,改变是困难的,再加上我们的政治家面临短期竞选的问题,改变几乎是不可能完成的任务。政治家对竞选献金极度依赖,而且他们发现竞选献金大多来自金融界等既得利益集团,特别是能源行业,在这种情况下,就会出现血淋淋的奇迹:什么事情都可以做。Q: And that long-term perspective is important, not only to changing society, but also to investing. As an investor, you#39;re known for that.问:长期展望非常重要,不仅对社会的改变是如此,对投资来讲也一样。作为一名投资人,您的眼光已经是众所周知。A: I like to get what I consider the central idea, which in the stock market is patience and value and mean reversion. And in society, it is resources and climate damage. That#39;s plenty to go on, and that#39;s a pretty strong focus. We have a shockingly short horizon in the stock market, as witnessed in the Internet bubble. And we have a shockingly short horizon about social problems, where all we want to hear is how rapid the growth will be and how good everything is.答: 我想指出我觉得是最核心的关注点,在股市中那就是耐心、价值和均值回归,在社会范畴中则是资源和气候灾害。需要做的还有很多,而这些则是重中之重。在股市中,人们关注的时间周期短暂得令人震惊,这在互联网泡沫中就可见一斑。人们对社会问题关注的时间周期也同样短得令人震惊,大家希望听到的无非是增长速度将有多快,以及万事都是多么地遂愿。Q: How about a stock forecast. You called the market#39;s initial 2009 rally, but by 2010 you were predicting #39;seven lean years.#39; So far, however, the market#39;s soared.问:您对股市作何展望?您成功地预测了股市在2009年初的涨势,但是到了2010年,您又预测股市将出现“七年不景气”。然而,到目前为止,股市却一再走高。A: And it can go a lot higher than this with the Fed pushing it. And we can have another real bubble. Based on the Fed#39;s history, that seems to be what they like. You know we had one in 2000 with Greenspan, and then we had a housing bubble and a financial bubble with Bernanke and Greenspan. And it looks like Bernanke is perfectly happy to keep the rates down and watch as stock prices rise. They do that because as the rising stock prices give you a little consumer kick, you feel richer--and then, when you least need it, the whole thing bites you, and the prices go back to fair price or lower, like they did in #39;09, and the consumer reacts, and you have a recession and a bad stock market. But they#39;ve had two of these, and they seem bound and determined to do it a third time. As I#39;ve said, it#39;s a workable definition of madness to keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.答: 在美联储的推动下,股指可能还会冲得更高。我们可能将迎来另一个真正的泡沫。基于美联储的历史,泡沫似乎是美联储愿意看到的景象。大家知道,我们在2000年格林斯潘掌舵时经历过一次泡沫;托贝南克(Bernanke)和格林斯潘的福,我们随后又迎来了房地产泡沫和金融泡沫。看起来,贝南克现在非常乐于将利率维持在低位并坐视股票价格飙升。他们这样做的原因是,股票价格走高给你带来些许消费的刺激,让你感觉自己更富有了。接着,当你最不希望事情发生变化时,整个形势突然间变得对你不利了,股票价格回归至均值甚至更低的水平,正像股市09年的情形一样。消费者作出反应,于是就出现了衰退和熊市。但是,尽管我们已经遭遇了两次泡沫,美联储似乎决心迎接第三次泡沫。就像我说的,这种希望种豆得瓜的做法符合“疯狂”的定义。Q: Like many Englishmen, you seem to regard Americans as wildly, fool-heartedly optimistic.问:与许多英国人一样,您似乎认为美国人是过于盲目乐观的。A: America is a very, very optimistic-biased society, as I believe, incidentally, Australia is, for whatever that means. We#39;re the two great optimistic societies. You can have a conversation about a housing bubble in England, and they#39;ll say, #39;oh, is that right? Let me see the data.#39; If you have one in Australia, you have World War III! They hate you. They hate you for years! [laughs] The idea that you could suggest that they were having a housing bubble. [laughs]答: 美国是一个非常、非常具有乐观倾向的社会;顺便提一下,我认为澳大利亚也是如此。美国和澳大利亚是两大乐观主义国家。当你在英国谈及房地产泡沫问题时,英国人会说:“哦?真的吗?让我看看数据。”当你在澳大利亚提出同样的问题时,第三次世界大战便会由此爆发。他们将对你恨之入骨。并且在几年之内都不会原谅你[笑]。只是因为你暗示他们可能正面临房地产泡沫。[笑]Q: So the stereotypes about us are true?问:所以这个关于美国人的固有印象是真的?A: Absolutely. Now, it#39;s been very useful in enterprise, in venture capital...in start-ups. We have more failures here than probably every developed country added together, but in consequence, when the smoke clears, we tend to end up with the Amazons and the Googles. It#39;s not an accident. We just throw more darts at the dartboard. The Germans are very conservative about throwing darts. We have an admirable risk-taking attitude, and we#39;re very tolerant of failure.答: 千真万确。乐观对企业、风险资本以及初创企业一直都非常有帮助。在美国,失败的案例可能比其它所有发达国家加起来还要多,但是结果是,当尘埃落定之时,亚马逊(Amazon)和谷歌(Google)这样的企业却应运而生。这不是一种偶然现象。我们只是向圆靶投出了更多飞镖而已。德国人对于投掷飞镖非常保守。我们则拥有令人敬佩的冒险精神,和对失败极高的容忍度。Q: We benefit from it?问:这点对美国人有益吗?A: Absolutely, but the downside is you#39;re willing to throw darts because you think you#39;re going to win. American entrepreneurs all know they#39;re going to win. Only 10 percent survive, but they all think they#39;re going to win.答: 绝对有益,不过也有不足之处,那就是你是认为自己会成功才愿意投掷飞镖的。美国企业家都认为自己会成功。虽然只有10%的企业能够生存下来,但所有企业家都会认为自己会取得成功。 /201310/262662江苏省农垦肿瘤医院治疗月经不调多少钱 射阳县人民医院肛肠科

盐城/可透视人流一般多少钱Babysitter secretly filmed kicking and hitting five-year-old boy and screaming #39;I will beat you to death#39;because he wouldn#39;t eat his food in China.中国保姆被秘密拍下踢打5岁男孩并大叫‘我要把你打死’,就因为他不吃东西This is the horrific moment acruel babysitter was caught on camera kicking and hitting a five-year old-boyafter he refused to eat his food.一名残忍的保姆被拍下踢打5岁男孩,就因为他不吃东西。Heng Hsiao, 32, was filmed dragging Shing Sun, 5, across the floor as she pummeled him at his home inLiaoning Province in north-eastern China.事发辽宁省,32岁的保姆在地板上拖着5岁的男孩,并打他。She was left in charge of the small child while his parents went out to dinner, but a secret camera that theyhad installed to catch burglars revealed the nanny#39;s disgusting behaviorinstead.男孩的父母出去吃饭,所以由保姆来看小孩,但是他们安装来防窃贼的秘密摄像头却拍到了这名保姆的恶心行为。In a sickening abuse of power, Heng, wearing a cream trouser suit, towers over the boy kicking himwhile he uses his legs to try and fight her off.在这个令人作呕的过程中,保姆还用脚踢他,但男孩也用脚回击了她。As he lies on the floor crying, she batters him with a slipper and is heard shouting: #39;I will beat youto death.#39;男孩躺在地板上大哭,她还用拖鞋打他,并喊道:“我要把你打死。”At one point, the babysitter drags the child out of sight of the camera. Then,when she reappears she begins cleaning the floor where she had just attackedthe lad. 期间,保姆还一度将男孩拖到摄像镜头外,当她重新出现时,她开始清洁刚刚打过男孩的那块地板。Police are now investigating the brutal assault by Heng and the footage could be used in evidenceagainst her.警方正在调查这起案件,这个录像将作为据。The boy#39;s distraught mum Qing Chin, 28, said: #39;When we got home she seemednormal and said Sun was in bed asleep.男孩28岁的妈妈说:“我们到家时,他看起来很正常,并说男孩正在床上睡觉。”#39;She was a new babysitter so we didn#39;t really know her that well, but she seemed nice enough. We paid herand then we went up to see Sun. He was crying and shaking with fear.“她是个新保姆,所以我们并不是非常了解她,但是她人看起来很好。我们付了钱,然后进房看我儿子。他在哭并恐惧的发抖。”#39;When he told us what had happened we couldn#39;t believe it. But then we checked the camera, which we#39;d putup to catch burglars, and saw that woman attacking our little boy.“当他对我们说了刚才发生的事情之后,我们都不敢相信了。我们查看了用来防贼的秘密摄像头,发现这名女子打了我们的孩子。#39;We were completely shockedand sickened. How could someone to do this to a child?“我们感到震惊,也感到恶心。怎么会有人对小孩子做这种事情?#39;There are so many child abuse cases and baby sitters are rarely punished severely. But I never thought itwould happen to our child.#39;“确实存在很多虐待儿童事件,而且保姆很少受到严厉的惩罚。但是我从来没想过这种事情会发生在我孩子身上。” /201412/350465 The average price of a wedding in the U.S. is ,000, according to wedding-industry trackers TheWeddingReport.com. But an increasing number of couples are embracing frugality by tossing out the preconceived notions of the big-ticket wedding.据婚庆行业研究网站TheWeddingReport.com的数据,美国人在婚礼上的平均开销是26,000美元。不过,有越来越多的新人选择摒弃人们认为婚礼就得有奢华排场的习惯性思维,开始追求节俭朴素的婚礼。This year, more than 2 million wedding ceremonies will take place in America, and although 34% of the couples will spend more than ,000 on nuptials, another 39.5% will spend less than ,000. The substantially smaller price tag of the latter group is a trend that saw an uptick during the recession, and it#39;s one that#39;s here to stay, notes Andy Brennan, an analyst at research group IBISWorld.今年美国有会有超过200万场的婚礼,但其中计划花费超过20,000美元的新婚夫妻只占34%,另外有39.5%的新人婚礼花费将不超过10,000美元,像后者这样大幅缩减结婚费用的做法已经成为了一种趋势,在经济不景气的环境中,有越来越多的人效仿。研究集团IBISWorld的分析师安迪·布伦南(Andy Brennan)指出,这样的势头还会持续下去。One reason: The cost of getting married has soared. From 1980 to 2012, wedding costs jumped 460%, according to IBISWorld, while the cumulative rate of inflation grew only 178.6%. Another reason is that more people are delaying marriage because of the still-stagnant economy. According to a 2012 Pew Research Center report, 20% of people aged 18 to 34 put off marriage because of tough economic conditions. #39;The landscape has definitely changed,#39; Brennan says. #39;People tend to have more of a focus on their careers and get married at a later time because they#39;re much more conscious about what they can save and when they should get married.#39;一个原因:婚礼费用已经飙升得太高了。根据IBISWorld的数据,从1980年到2012年,婚礼费用增长了460%,而同期累计通货膨胀率也不过178.6%。另外一个原因是,越来越多的人因为经济依旧不景气而推迟结婚。据皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center) 2012年的一份报告显示,18至34岁人群中,有20%的人因为经济不好推迟结婚。布伦南说,情况无疑已经发生了变化,人们愿意把精力更多地放在事业上,并为此推迟结婚,因为他们在考虑能存多少钱和何时该结婚的问题上变得更加地理智清醒。So for all those frugal brides and grooms, here are some ways to save.那些想节俭办婚礼的新郎新娘们,这里有一些省钱的诀窍。Go digital for save-the-dates发送电子预请帖This year, nearly 0 million will be spent on save-the-date cards, according to TheWeddingReport.com. But that time-honored tradition of mailing a wedding reminder several weeks before receiving the actual wedding invitation is starting to be viewed by some consumers as antiquated and a waste of money. In fact, save-the-date spending is anticipated to diminish over the next four years, according to TheWeddingReport.com.据TheWeddingReport.com的统计,新人们今年花在预请帖(save-the-date card)上的费用将接近两亿美元。预请帖就是在发真正的婚礼请柬之前的数周邮寄出的一个婚礼日期通知,是一种有着悠久历史的婚礼传统。但是,有一些开始认为这样的做法既过时又费钱。实际上,据TheWeddingReport.com称,新人们在预请帖上的开销预计将会在未来四年内不断减少。So while spending per wedding for save-the-dates (plus postage) isn#39;t a huge expense, many couples have forgone lickable stamps and paper. In 2012, nearly one in three couples created and/or sent save-the-dates online, compared with just one in five in 2009, reports theKnot.com. Why the shift? The rise of online shopping has helped change perceptions of what#39;s appropriate wedding planning behavior, notes IBISWorld#39;s Brennan. #39;It was once considered cheap to put a save the date online, but now it#39;s accepted,#39; he says.尽管平均每场婚礼预请帖的花费(外加邮资)只有不算多的97美元,但许多夫妻还是摒弃了纸质的邮票和卡片。婚礼主题网站theKnot.com 称,2012年,三对夫妻中就有一对夫妻在网上制作和(或者)发送预请帖,与之相比2009年时五对夫妻中只有一对这样做。为什么会有这样的转变?IBISWorld的布伦南认为,是网络购物的崛起帮助人们改变了对婚礼筹备习惯的认知。他说,以前人们认为在网上发预请帖会显得很小气,但现在大家都接受了这种做法。In fact, it#39;s so widely accepted that some well-known designers have started creating electronic save-the-dates. Paperlesspost.com, an e-greeting card website, offers more than 500 different virtual save-the-dates, and some were designed by Kate Spade New York and Oscar de la Renta, among others. Last year, the site emailed 3 million wedding save-the-dates, says its CEO, James Hirschfeld. Many of the designs are free, while some incur a small fee for a virtual envelope and liner. Another popular free e-card site, Evite.com, sent out 2.6 million save-the-date invitations in 2013, says its editorial director, Marilyn Oliveira. Among the more than 95,000 save-the-date events sent via Evite, Los Angeles, Houston, New York, Chicago and Atlanta were the top five mailers last year.实际上,在网上发预请帖确实已被广泛地接受,甚至有一些知名的设计师也开始制作电子预请帖。电子贺卡网站Paperlesspost.com上有超过500种的虚拟预请帖,其中一些设计出自Kate Spade New York和Oscar de la Renta等知名品牌之手。Paperlesspost.com首席执行长詹姆士·赫希菲尔德(James Hirschfeld)说,去年网站共发送出300万份婚礼预请帖。许多请帖的设计是免费的,但虚拟的信封和封套需要花点钱。另外一家热门的电子贺卡网站Evite.com,其网站编辑部主任玛丽莲·奥利维拉(Marilyn Oliveira)说,在2013年他们共发送了260万份预请帖。共有95,000场仪式的预请帖是通过Evite发送的,使用数最多的前五个城市是洛杉矶、休斯顿、纽约、芝加哥和亚特兰大。Get married in the off-season选择淡季办婚礼Traditionally, the demand is high for summer weddings, as are the costs. Venues, bakers, caterers, florists and planners may all charge more during the peak season because their time and services are so stretched. Thus, couples can easily save thousands by getting married when these services aren#39;t in high demand. For example, booking a reception at a venue (particularly in cold-weather states) in the fall when they have more vacancies makes it easier to negotiate a lower price -- and it can help you land the ceremony date of your choice.传统上夏季是婚礼的旺季,成本因此也很高。对于婚礼场地、烘焙店、酒席承办方、鲜花店和婚礼策划公司而言,它们的务在旺季的时候会供不应求,费用自然也会收得更高。因此,如果新人们选择在淡季举行婚礼,就可以轻松省下数千美元。比如,可以定制一场秋季婚礼(特别是在天气寒冷的州),这时婚礼场地会有更多的空档,更容易争取到较低的价格,而且还有助你选到自己喜欢的大婚日子。Consequently, fall weddings are growing even more popular, as 32% of couples chose the season, theKnot.com says. So while June weddings still reign supreme -- 291,000 June weddings took place in 2013 -- September has become the second-most popular month to get hitched, according to TheWeddingReport.com. Even October dates are more attractive than April, May and July.结果是,秋季婚礼正变得越来越流行,据theKnot.com称,有32%的新人选择了秋季办婚宴。据TheWeddingReport.com称,虽然六月婚礼依然是绝对的主力军—2013年六月婚礼数量达到了291,000场,但九月份已经成为了第二受欢迎的婚礼月份。甚至10月份也比四月、五月和七月对新人更有吸引力。But off-season weddings aren#39;t the only way to save, says Wendy Kidd, the vice president of the American Association of Certified Wedding Planners. More couples are also opting for Friday ceremonies rather than Saturday or Sunday. While a weekday wedding makes it more difficult for cross-country guests to attend, it#39;s a clear money saver, she says. Take the Indian Pond Country Club, which is located 35 miles outside of Boston, and is a reoccurring best pick by theKnot.com. The club charges ,000 less for Friday peak-season receptions (,000) compared with Saturday receptions (,000) in its 500-guest-capacity grand ballroom. Similarly, Friday receptions in the off-season, which runs from Nov. 1 to April 30, cost ,000 -- compared with ,500 for off-season Saturday receptions.但美国持婚礼策划师协会(American Association of Certified Wedding Planner)的副总裁温迪·基德(Wendy Kidd)说,淡季婚礼也并非省钱的唯一办法。许多夫妻还会选择周五而不是周六或周日举行婚礼。她说,虽然在工作日举行婚礼会让外地的亲朋好友做难,但这显然是省钱的好办法。以波士顿郊外35英里的印第安池塘乡村俱乐部(Indian Pond Country Club)为例,它曾多次被theKnot.com评为最受欢迎婚礼场地。它能容纳500人的大宴会厅对旺季周五婚礼的报价是11,000美元,比周六报价17,000美元少了整整6,000美元;同样,在11月1日至4月30日的淡季期间,周五婚礼价格是8,000美元,到了周六就得要12,500了。Trade in a cake for cupcakes大蛋糕换成纸托蛋糕A spectacular wedding cake with fondant flowers dusted in gold, scalloped edges -- or whatever your Pinterest board inspired you to do -- can get pretty costly. The average wedding cake costs nearly 0, and while it#39;s only a sliver of the total wedding cost, one in five couples spend more than that, even upwards of ,000 on dessert, according to TheWeddingReport.com. So don#39;t let the price of a wedding cake take the...well, you know.翻糖花点缀、扇形金色镶边的婚礼大蛋糕(上面还可以加上任何你灵感迸发想出其他好玩意),会花掉你的一大笔钱。据TheWeddingReport.com称,婚礼蛋糕的平均价格接近500美元,虽然这只是婚礼总开销的九牛一毛,但每五对夫妻中就会有一对夫妻在甜点上的花销要远远超过这个价格,甚至达到了1,000美元。所以,不要让婚礼蛋糕的花费太那个什么了…你懂的。The cost of a cake is calculated per slice, and can range from a few dollars to a slice, reports theKnot.com. And don#39;t forget about the delivery fee and cutting fee. While it#39;s best to have the baker deliver the cake themselves because they#39;re the experts, the cutting fee goes to the vendor when you don#39;t use an in-house baker. The cutting fee ranges from to per slice for cutting, serving, and cleaning up afterward. To avoid those pesky fees and save on the overall expense, many couples have turned to cupcakes. (But some couples also prefer cupcakes because it#39;s the trendy thing to do.) After all, they#39;re just mini cakes in disguise. You can mix-and-match different flavors to suit your guests#39; varying taste buds. Plus, you#39;ll save on the baker#39;s end, as assembly and design time are minimal for cupcakes.theKnot.com称,蛋糕的价格是按块来计算的,每块从几美元到15美元不等。不过,别忘了还有运输费和切分费用。既然烘焙店是专业做这个的,最好还是让烘焙店自己送蛋糕,不过,如果你没有用内部的烘焙坊,还得付给卖家切分费。蛋糕切分费从每块2美元至5美元不等,包括切分、餐和之后的清理。为了省掉这块麻烦的费用,降低总体的婚礼开销,许多夫妻转而使用纸托蛋糕。(不过还有一些夫妻是为了赶时髦而使用杯托蛋糕)。毕竟,它们不过是装扮了的迷你蛋糕。你可以根据宾客们的不同口味提供各种风味的蛋糕,另外,这还能让你省了烘焙方面的成本,因为纸托蛋糕装配和设计的时间是最短的。Live stream the ceremony消减仪式规模Today, the average wedding has 131 guests, and the price per head is 2. So many couples have started to keep the nuptial costs down by limiting the guest list. In fact, since peaking at an average of 184 guests in 2006, the figure has been on a steady decline, dropping 29% over the last seven years. To accommodate those who were axed, or who simply can#39;t make the trip, couples have started broadcasting their weddings like the royals themselves. Last year, nearly 20,000 weddings were broadcast over Ustream.tv, the largest live- streaming platform. Ustream.tv is well-known for streaming everything from zoo-animal births to space walks, but in the past year alone it#39;s seen a 250% rise in wedding streams, says spokeswoman Joellen Ferrer. #39;It#39;s been an interesting phenomenon,#39; Ferrer says. #39;More people are looking at this technology to bridge the gap and allow family to attend an event when they physically can#39;t be there.#39;如今一场婚礼邀请的宾客数量平均为131名、新人们在每位宾客身上的花费是192美元。因此,许多夫妻开始通过限制宾客数量来降低婚礼开销。事实上,自从2006年每场婚礼平均的宾客数达到了184位的最高值之后,这个数字一直在稳步下降,在过去七年累计下跌了29%。为了照顾那些被从名单上砍掉的宾客、和那些无法到场的亲朋好友,新人们开始像皇家婚礼一样直播自己的婚礼过程。去年,有近20,000场婚礼登上了最大的视频直播流媒体平台Ustream.tv。Ustream.tv本来是以传播从动物园动物产子到太空漫步等各类视频而出名,但网站发言人乔伦·费勒说(Joellen Ferrer)说,光去年一年,其婚礼视频的数量就增长了250%。费勒说,这是一个有趣的现象,有越来越多的人用流媒体来拉近彼此的距离,让不能亲身到场的亲朋好友也能参与其中。Ustream.tv charges a month for its ad-free-pro-silver plan, which enables couples to live stream their wedding ceremony via a mobile device, webcam, or other compatible device for friends and family not in attendance -- essentially saving the couple ,600 or more for 50 virtual guests. They can then download the saved file to a hard drive as a keepsake, or store it on the Ustream cloud for a month if they cancel the pro-silver subscription plan.Ustream.tv的无广告专业银套餐计划每月收费99美元。购买这个套餐后,新人们可以通过手持设备、网络摄像头或者其他兼容设备为不能到场的亲朋好友直播婚典盛况,这无形中为新人们省去了50位虚拟客人9,600美元以上的费用。他们之后可以把存好的视频下载到硬盘上留作纪念,也可以直接存在Ustream的云端,但如果他们停止使用专业银套餐计划,每月要付15美元的存储费。Opt for something borrowed考虑购买“二手婚礼”If tacking small sections of the budget isn#39;t enough, some couples are forgoing wedding planning altogether -- only not in the way you think. They aren#39;t eloping to save money, but are purchasing the actual wedding (catering, venue, and all) from other couples who cancel their weddings and don#39;t want to foot the bill. With 270,000 (13%) of couples cancelling their weddings each year -- or an estimated .8 billion dollars down the proverbial drain -- it#39;s potentially a lucrative enterprise as wedding insurance doesn#39;t cover everything, some industry insiders say.一些夫妻嫌从小处省钱还不够,还会考虑放弃整个婚礼筹备——只是方式并非和你想的一样。他们不是为了省钱而私奔,而是要从那些取消婚礼、而又不想付账的夫妻那里把婚礼整个买下来(包括酒席、场地等等)。每年有270,000对(占13%)夫妻取消婚礼,估计要白白浪费掉68亿美元,一些婚庆业内人士说,这是一项潜在的赚钱大买卖,因为婚礼保险并不覆盖所有的东西。Subsequently, bridal brokerage websites have emerged to help put some of that money back into the hands of the jilted ex-couples. CanceledWeddings.com, a fledging wedding brokerage site, boasts that its registrants have a cumulative budget of million that needs to be spent in the next six months, according to its CEO, Peter K. Ulrich. Recently, the website brokered a deal for a fully-paid wedding in Maryland discounted by 70% (where the average wedding costs ,600, according to TheWeddingReport.com). #39;The more expensive it is, the better deals you can get,#39; Ulrich says. #39;The buyers just expect a good deal, and that#39;s what we#39;re trying to do; we saw a way to solve a problem so no one loses.#39;帮助这些取消婚礼的前夫妻们挽回部分经济损失的婚礼中介网站应运而生。CanceledWeddings.com就是一家新兴的婚礼中介网站,据网站首席执行长彼得·k·乌尔里希(Peter K. Ulrich)说,在其网站上登记的用户有累计5,000万美元的婚礼预算要在未来六个月消化掉。最近,这个网站促成了一单交易,把马里兰州一场全额付的婚礼以七折的价格转卖给了另外一对夫妻。(据WeddingReport.com称,当地婚礼的平均费用是32,600美元。)乌尔里希说,婚礼费用越高,你能拿到的折扣就越大。买家们就想买到便宜的婚礼,这也是我们努力的方向,我们找到了一种皆大欢喜的方式解决大家的问题。These websites broker deals by acting as the point-of-contact entity between the wedding cancelers and prospective buyers while maintaining each couple#39;s privacy. For example, when a couple cancels their wedding, they enlist a broker#39;s help to list their #39;pre-packaged wedding#39; on the broker#39;s canceled weddings website. Then, another couple can reserve the package by taking over the first couple#39;s contracts with the vendors and by paying any remaining fees. Thereby, they#39;ve accepted financial responsibility for a wedding they never planned, but will still participate in at half the cost.这些网站充当了婚礼取消方和婚礼潜在买家之间联络的桥梁,同时还要保守每对夫妻的隐私。比如,当一对夫妻要取消婚礼时,他们会请来中介帮助他们把“婚礼全套装”在中介的婚礼取消网站上挂牌销售。之后,另一对夫妻可以从婚礼务提供方那里把第一对夫妻的合同转签过来,并付剩余未付的费用,从而定下这个“婚礼全套装”。这样一来,他们就要承担一场不是他们自己策划的婚礼的所有费用,不过金额可能只有原价的一半。 /201404/290497盐城协和男科医院好不好盐城/三院地址




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