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Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s minister of finance, has resigned one day after the country’s anti-austerity government scored a decisive victory in a referendum over the terms of its relationship with creditors.就在希腊公投的一天后,希腊财长亚尼斯#8226;瓦鲁法基Yanis Varoufakis)辞去了财长职务。在就希腊与债权人关系条款举行的公投中,希腊反紧缩的政府取得了决定性胜利。In a blog called “Minister No More! the game-theorist turned politican said Alexis Tsipiras, Greek prime minister, had wanted him to step down to make it easier to deal with creditors, particularly in the eurogroup of finance ministers.在一篇名为《不再任财长!Minister No More!)的客文章中,这名此前是弈论学家的政治人物表示,希腊总理亚历克西#8226;齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)希望他辞职,以便让希腊与债权人(尤其是各国财长组成的欧元集团(Eurogroup)中的债权人)打起交道来更容易一些。The move came after Sunday’s referendum in which voters backed Athenscall to reject a compromise with international creditors, raising serious doubts about the country’s ability to remain inside the eurozone. The No camp won 61.3 per cent of the vote and was victorious in every region of the country上周日,希腊人在公投中对希腊政府拒绝与国际债权人妥协的呼吁表示了持,这一公投结果令人严重怀疑希腊能否再留在欧元区内。在这次公投中,认为应该“说不”的阵营得票率为61.3%,并在希腊国内各个地区都取得了胜利。“Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners for my‘absencefrom its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance today,Mr Varoufakis wrote in his blog.瓦鲁法斯基在文中写道:“公投结果公布后不久,有人告诉我,欧元集团的某些成员及各种‘合作伙伴’在一定程度上更希望我‘不要出现在’欧元集团会议上;总理对此的判断是,这可能有助于他与各方达成协议。出于这个原因,我于今日辞去财长职务。“I consider it my duty to help Alexis Tsipras exploit, as he sees fit, the capital that the Greek people granted us through yesterday’s referendum. And I shall wear the creditorsloathing with pride.”“我认为,我有责任以亚历克西#8226;齐普拉斯认为的合适的方式,帮他利用希腊人民通过昨日的公投赋予我们的资本。我会以自豪的心态来忍受债权人对我的憎恨。“We of the Left know how to act collectively with no care for the privileges of office...The superhuman effort to honour the brave people of Greece, and the famous OXI (NO) that they granted to democrats the world over, is just beginning.”“我们左翼知道如何统一行动,对职位特权根本不放在心上……向勇敢的希腊人民致敬的超人般努力,以及他们给世界各地民主主义者带来的著名的‘说不’运动,才刚刚开始。”来 /201507/384615

Japan will begin to bring online a nuclear reactor for the first time in nearly two years on Tuesday in a step towards reviving the countrys nuclear industry devastated by the 2011 Fukushima disaster.日本将于周二启动一座核反应堆,这是该国将近两年来首次启动核反应堆,此举的目的在于重振因2011年福Fukushima)核灾难而受到毁灭性打击的日本核工业。In a statement on Monday, Kyushu Electric Power said the No 1 reactor at the Sendai plant in southern Japan is expected to start generating power Friday before reaching full capacity in early September, writes the FTs Kana Inagaki in Tokyo.在周一的一份声明中,九州电Kyushu Electric Power)表示,仙台核电站1号反应堆预计将于周五开始发电,并将月初实现全力运转。The restart would be the first under new safety requirements implemented after a tsunami in March 2011 caused a series of devastating meltdowns in Fukushima.这次重启将是首次依照2011月一场海啸后实施的新安全规定运转。那场海啸导致福岛发生一系列毁灭性的熔堆事故。All of Japans nuclear reactors remain offline, posing a serious challenge to a country with no fossil fuel reserves of its own. Restarting some reactors would help Japan reduce its energy import bill and lower greenhouse gas emissions.目前,日本所有核反应堆依然处于停机状态。对自身没有化石燃料储量的日本来说,这种局面带来了严重挑战。重启部分核反应堆将有助于日本减少用于能源进口的开销,降低温室气体排放。But a nuclear restart would be a further blow to Prime Minister Shinzo Abes aly sliding popularity as public opposition remains strong towards Japans return to nuclear energy. The road to rebooting Japans atomic industry has not been smooth, with many citizens protesting against restarts.不过,重启核反应堆可能会进一步打击日本首相安倍晋Shinzo Abe)已在不断下滑的民意持率,原因是公众依然强烈反对日本恢复使用核能。日本重振核工业的道路并不平坦,许多日本公民因反对重启核反应堆举行过抗议活动;We will carefully move forward with the restart process, putting the highest priority on ensuring safety,; Kyushu Electric said in a statement.九州电力在一份声明中表示:“我们将小心推进重启过程,把确保安全放在首位。”来 /201508/391724In a historic moment on June 26, the US Supreme Court ruled that same-sex marriage is a legal right across all 50 states. The Supreme Court justices ruled states cannot deny gay men and women the same marriage rights. The decision means the 13 states with bans on same-sex marriage are no longer able to enforce them.66日是一个历史性的时刻,美国最高法院裁决同性婚姻在全美50个州全部合法。美国最高法院大法官裁定任何一个州都不能剥夺同性男女获得平等婚姻权利。这也意味着之前美国13个州对同性婚姻的禁令失去效应。Same-sex couples “ask for equal dignity in the eyes of the law Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote in the majority opinion: “The Constitution grants them that right.”大法官安东#8226;肯尼迪在意见书中这样写到:同性情侣“寻求法律保障下的平等的尊严,而宪法也将赋予他们这份权利。”The decision came after decades of litigation and activism. It set off celebrations across the US. In affected states including Georgia, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, same-sex couples rushed to wed, while officials in Mississippi and Louisiana said marriages had to wait until procedural issues were addressed, reported the B.该裁决是几十年来不断的诉讼与行动的结果。庆祝的热潮正席卷全美。据B报道,在裁决生效的诸多州包括乔治亚州、密歇根州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州,大批同性情侣涌去登记结婚,而密西西比州和路易斯安那州的官员则表示还需等待一些程序问题的处理。According to “The New York Times the ruling came against the backdrop of fast-moving changes in public opinion in the US, with polls indicating that most Americans now approve of same-sex marriage.据《纽约时报》报道,通过这项裁决也能看出美国快速变化的公众舆论,民调显示现在大多数美国人都认同同性婚姻。US President Barack Obama welcomed the ruling, saying it “affirms what millions of Americans aly believe in their hearts.“Today,he said in a press release, “we can say, in no uncertain terms, that we have made our union a little more perfect.”美国总统奥巴马也持此项裁决,他表示“该裁决肯定了成千上万美国人内心已经相信的东西。”在新闻发布会上,他还说道:“今天,我们终于可以毫不含糊地说,我们让美利坚变得离完美更进一步。”Another win另一场胜利This was the second time the Supreme Court took up same-sex marriage, according to an article in “Business Insider The first time, in June 2013, the court made a decision that allowed the US federal government to recognize same-sex marriages in states where they were aly legal.据《商业内幕》的一篇文章所言,这其实是美国最高法院第二次受理同性婚姻合法化案件。第一次是013月,当时美国最高院裁定美国联邦政府承认已经允许同性婚姻的州同性婚姻合法。But at that time, the Supreme Court declined to rule on the broader question about gay marriage: Is there a constitutional right to same-sex marriage? The June 26 ruling gave a positive answer to that question.但当时,最高法院拒绝就更广泛的同性婚姻问题做出裁决—“同性婚姻是否享有宪法权利?”。不过今6日的裁决对这一问题给出了肯定的。Justice Kennedy wrote in the majority opinion that the Constitution should evolve with societal changes.肯尼迪大法官在意见书中写道:宪法应根据社会的变化而不断发展。“The nature of injustice is that we may not always see it in our own times,he wrote. “The generations that wrote and ratified the “Bill of Rightsand the “Fourteenth Amendmentdid not presume to know the extent of freedom in all of its dimensions, and so they entrusted to future generations a charter protecting the right of all persons to enjoy liberty as we learn its meaning.”他还写道:“公平的本质就是我们在有生之年也许总是难见。写出并批准《权利法案》与《第十四条修正案》的先贤们深知自己无法理解自由的全部方面,因此他们给后代委以重托,希望他们能保护所有人享受自由的权利,正如我们所了解的自由的含义。”The Fourteenth Amendment addresses citizenship rights and equal protection of the law. In the June 26 ruling, the Supreme Court declared that the equal protection clause of the amendment requires marriage rights be extended to same-sex couples, too.《第十四条修正案》赋予公民以权利,让他们享受法律的平等保护。今6日,美国最高法院宣布该修正案平等保护条款也要求将婚姻权利赋予同性情侣。来 /201507/384164

Switzerland is not known normally for jolting the global financial system but that is what it has done, and without warning. It has abandoned a self-imposed peg of the Swiss franc against the euro, introduced in 2011, and lowered the aly negative interest rate on deposits from minus 0.25 per cent to minus 0.75 per cent.瑞士一般并不以令全球金融体系震荡而著称,然而它刚刚就这么干了一回,而且毫无预警。瑞士取消了自己强加的瑞士法郎兑欧元汇率上限011年出台),并将已经为负的存款利率0.25%降至-0.75%。In the wake of Thursday’s announcement, the Swiss franc soared against the euro by almost 40 per cent, though this gain was subsequently halved.上周四该政策一经宣布,瑞郎相对欧元一度飙升近40%,不过这一涨幅随后回吐了一半。So let us put the action of the Swiss National Bank into context; what was the aim and what is its significance?那么,让我们梳理下瑞士央SNB)此举的来龙去脉,看看它目的何在,其意义又是什么?The central bank might have seen an opportunity to stop the vigorous expansion of its balance sheet since 2011, which followed currency market interventions to hold down the Swiss franc and support the euro in the midst of the sovereign debt crisis. By the end of 2014, it had risen to about SFr500bn, or 80 per cent of gross domestic product. Relative to the size of its economy, Switzerland’s central bank had a balance sheet about three times larger than those of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Flows into Swiss francs have grown as a result of the quest for a haven from Russia’s economic and political problems.瑞士央行或许是认为,这是阻止其资产负债规模急剧扩张的一个机会。自2011年瑞士央行干预汇市、压低瑞郎汇率并撑遭遇主权债务危机的欧元以来,该行的资产负债规模就一直在扩张。到2014年底,其资产负债规模已扩至000亿瑞郎,相当于瑞士国内生产总GDP)0%。就央行资产负债规模与本国经济规模之比而言,瑞士央行是美联Fed)和英国央BoE)倍以上。在俄罗斯遭遇经济和政治问题后,为寻求避险,越来越多的资金涌入瑞郎。The authorities may have grown concerned, moreover, at the prospect of additional flows into francs should there be an announcement by the European Central Bank at its meeting on 22 January as is now widely expected to commence quantitative easing. If there had been any such influx with the peg still in place, the SNB’s balance sheet would have expanded even further.另外,瑞士当局或许是越来越担心,一旦欧洲央ECB)如人们现在普遍预期的那样2日的会议上宣布启动量化宽松,可能会有更多资金流入瑞郎。如果汇率上限依然存在时出现过这种流入,那么瑞士央行的资产负债规模可能已进一步扩大。In theory, the SNB could have continued to build up its balance sheet without limit, comfortable in the knowledge that it could print unlimited Swiss francs to cover any foreign currency losses in the future if the franc rose. However, in so doing, the traditionally cautious central bank might well have landed itself with even bigger financial stability concerns than those it has been grappling with hitherto ultimately, about the consequences of open-ended money creation. The monetary base has quintupled to SFr400bn since the middle of 2011, property prices and rents are increasing rapidly, and bank lending has risen by 25 per cent as a share of GDP to 170 per cent.理论上讲,瑞士央行本可继续放心地无限扩大其资产负债规模,因为它清楚自己可以无限量印制瑞郎、以弥补若未来瑞郎升值所造成的任何外汇损失。但这家一向谨慎的央行如果真的这样做,很可能引起外界对其金融稳定性的更大担心,甚至要比它迄今一直竭力应对的问题引发的担忧更严重——这件事归根结底与无限货币创造的后果有关。自2011年中期以来,瑞士的货币基础已扩大了4倍,000亿瑞郎,房价和租金正在快速上涨,贷款增长5%,贷款总额相当于GDP70%。In any event, the central bank may have seen no mileage in being a backstop for selling “cheapfrancs should the euro fall in the foreign exchange markets once a QE programme starts.不管怎样,瑞士央行可能已经看到了,如果量化宽松启动后欧元汇率在外汇市场上下跌,出售“廉价”瑞郎撑欧元并无益处。Switzerland will now have to address at least three important problems.瑞士眼下至少需要解决三大问题。First, if the franc’s immediate appreciation against the euro is not reversed, it will intensify the deflation that is working its way through the economy. As oil prices started falling, inflation was expected to be around zero but we should now expect it to far below that, with prices falling substantially.首先,如果目前瑞郎相对欧元的升值不逆转,将会加剧正在影响整个瑞士经济的通缩。在石油价格开始下跌时,人们曾预期瑞士的通胀率会降至零左右,但考虑到物价正大幅下跌,我们现在应当预期通胀率会降至远低于零的水平。Second, a stronger franc rate against the euro could lower Swiss economic growth by about 0.7 per cent. It will have a negative effect on business and investment decisions, and will harm exporters, which ship about half their products to countries using the euro. It could spur higher direct investment abroad.其次,瑞郎兑欧元汇率走高可能会造成瑞士经济增幅减少.7个百分点。这将对商业和投资决策产生负面影响,并损害出口企业,瑞士出口企业有一半左右的产品都发往使用欧元的国家。这有可能会促使瑞士人对海外进行更多的直接投资。Third, the rise of the franc will expose the central bank to sizeable losses on its assets, about half of which are denominated in euros though these might simply offset comparable gains made from currency interventions in 2014.第三,瑞郎的走强将令瑞士央行面临巨大的资产损失,其资产约有一半以欧元计价——尽管这些损失可能只是刚好抵消了014年从干预汇市中获得的收益。Only last month, when the central bank reaffirmed its peg policy, it warned of the dangers of local and global deflation, and stated that the currency was still overvalued.就在上个月,瑞士央行在重申其汇率上限政策时,还警告瑞士及全球有陷入通缩的危险,同时表示瑞郎仍然受到高估。The abandonment of the peg is, therefore, additionally surprising. Suppressing the value of the Swiss franc did not make local deflation any less likely, and presiding over this latest rise will only make bigger price falls likely. Some European banks have been active in lending the currency for mortgages in eastern Europe. These and other Swiss franc borrowers now face a new deflationary shock as their local debt service and amortisation costs rise.因此,瑞士央行取消汇率上限的做法就更加令人惊讶。压低瑞郎汇率并没有减少瑞士通缩的可能性,而促成这次的上涨只会导致物价的更大幅下降。部分欧洲一直在东欧积极推出瑞郎抵押贷款。随着当地的偿债和摊还成本上升,这些抵押贷款的借款人以及其他借入瑞郎的人现在面临一个新的通缩冲击。As delegates head off to the World Economic Forum in Davos, they might reflect that history is repeating itself in a curious way. In the late 1970s, Switzerland introduced negative deposit rates to stop currency appreciation against the Deutschmark; and, when that did not work, it capped the franc’s value. That policy failed.在各位参会者启程参加达沃斯世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)之际,他们可能在想历史正在以一种奇特的方式重演0世纪70年代末,瑞士出台负存款利率以阻止瑞郎对德国马克升值;当此举没有奏效时,瑞士为瑞郎汇率设置了上限。这一政策失败了。This time, Switzerland has pursued the same policies in reverse order.这一次,瑞士以相反的顺序执行了同样的政策。Foreign exchange markets are important lightning conductors of global shocks, this time deflation but central banks acting alone have rarely provided stability. With the ECB on the cusp of implementing QE, that goal seems a long way off.外汇市场是防范全球性冲击的重要避雷针(这一次的全球性冲击是通缩),但各国央行的单打独斗很少能带来稳定性。在欧洲央行即将启动量化宽松之际,要实现这一目标似乎还有很长的路要走。来 /201501/355264

It’s been a pretty miserable couple of weeks for the U.S. economy.近几周,美国经济表现相当惨淡。Last week, the Commerce Department announced that GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015 fell dramatically to 0.2% on an annualized basis. But after new data released Tuesday showed that the trade deficit in March was far higher than economists had expected, it’s likely that GDP in the first quarter actually shrank.之前美国商务部宣布的数据显示015年一季度GDP初值环比仅增长0.2%。但随后发布的新数据显示,三月份美国贸易赤字要远比经济学家预期的更高,因此一季度GDP实际上有可能是萎缩的。For now, most economists expect that the economy will bounce back in the second quarter of 2015, just like it did last year, and that overall real growth will beat last year’s performance of 2.4%.目前,大多数经济学家预计,美国经济将在第二季度和去年一样出现反弹,GDP全年实际增长率将超过去年.4%。But a new analysis from Jodi Gunzberg, global head of commodities at Samp;P Dow Jones Indices, argues against this consensus, and instead makes the case that we’re headed for another recession.Gunzberg points to the outstanding performance of commodities in April as measured by the Samp;P GSCI index, which gained 11.1% that month, the 19th best month since the index first starting tracking these commodities back in 1970. Two groups of commodities–energy and industrial metals–did particularly well, rising by a combined 12.67% in April. It’s not common for these two groups of commodities to surge in value at the same time. According to Gunzberg, the two indices have only moved in tandem about 30% of the time since 1983. And there have only been 12 months in which the energy and industrial metals sectors have risen more than they did in April:不过,这个观点遭到了标普道琼斯指数公司大宗商品部全球负责人朱迪o冈兹伯格的反驳,他在一份新的分析报告中表明,新一轮衰退即将到来。冈兹伯格指出,以标普高盛商品指数来衡量,大宗商品表现出色,该指月上涨了11.1%,涨幅在1970年该指数创立以来的所有月份中可排到第19位。其中,能源和工业金属两类大宗商品的表现尤其突出,四月份平均增长12.67%。这两类商品在同一时期出现价格激增并不常见。据冈兹伯格说,983年以来,只有大约30%的时间里能源指数与工业金属指数的表现是同步的,而涨幅高于今年四月的情况,过去几十年里只2个月出现过。(如下图)As you can see, the months in which these sectors did well are clustered around times leading up to a recession. Gunzberg argues that this is because firms that rely on these materials—like oil and natural gas in the energy sector, and copper and aluminum in the metals sector—start buying up these materials in bulk when they sense their performance is about to start waning. “When you look at broad economic cycles,says Gunzberg “equities lead the cycle, while commodities are on the cycle.”可以看出,两类商品均表现较好的月份往往集中在经济衰退前。冈兹伯格认为,这是因为依赖这些原材料(如能源类的石油、天然气和金属类的铜、铝)的企业,通常在感觉业绩要下滑时开始大量购进原材料,他说:“如果多观察几轮经济周期就会发现,股市先于经济周期而动,而大宗商品则与经济周期基本同步。”In other words, as the market nears a top, and companies are flush with cash and capital, but short on faith in their future performance, they start to hoard the basic commodities that power the global economy. But eventually their performance takes a turn for the worse, and so does demand for raw materials.换言之,市场接近顶部,企业现金和资本也很充足的情况下,如果对未来业绩缺乏信心,企业就会囤积对全球经济发展较重要的基础原材料——大宗商品。但随着他们的业绩恶化,市场对原材料的需求最终也会减弱。Of course, Gunzberg’s data goes back by just 30 years, and it predicts only three recessions. It’s possible that these data only point to strange coincidences rather than something with real predictive power. But with the U.S. in its 70th month of economic expansion–the sixth longest the U.S. economy has had since 1850–the slowdown in the first quarter may very well be more than just a blip.当然,冈兹伯格的数据仅包括过0年,涉及的经济衰退也只有三次。有可能出现这样的数据只是偶然的巧合,并不能作为预测的依据。但眼下美国经济已连续第70个月增长,持续时间已达到1850年以来的有史长,这么看来第一季度的经济增长放缓很可能不仅是个偶发异常现象 /201505/375615Here we go again. Russian artillery fires and a convoy filled with aid, the Russians say rolls across Ukraine’s border, where an awful but undeclared battle between Moscow’s proxies and the Kiev government for control of the country’s east has been under way for months. Kiev calls this “a direct invasion What will Washington and its European allies do?又是老一套。俄罗斯炮兵开火,而(俄罗斯人说,满载援助的)护卫队开过乌克兰边境——在那里,虽然没有正式宣战,但莫斯科的代理人和乌克兰政府已经为争夺乌克兰东部控制权而爆发了一场持续数月的可怕战争。乌克兰政府将此称为“直接的侵略”。华盛顿及其欧洲盟友将如何应对?Recent history suggests there will be many who argue against doing much. Why? Because President Vladimir Putin , Russia’s tough-guy leader, has been playing the west like a fiddle, giving just enough to pretend he is something other than the ultranationalist autocrat he has always been.最近的历史表明,将会有许多人反对采取严厉措斀?原因何在?因为俄罗斯的硬汉领导人、总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)一直在欺骗西方,恰到好处地假装他不是极端民族主义独裁者,虽然他自始至终都是这么一个人。Mr Putin, the former KGB spy, is a master at giving his western apologists room to manoeuvre; at putting a case out there, no matter how implausible. This was true from the very start of his rule, when I was a correspondent in Moscow for The Washington Post and he was launching his crackdown on independent media and on tycoons such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky. His western apologists were happy to take Mr Putin at his word, that he was merely cleaning up the mess left by Boris Yeltsin, his predecessor, while failing to account for his efforts to dismantle the admittedly flawed democracy he inherited. “If by democracy, you mean the dissolution of the state, we don’t need it,he once told western correspondents. Few paid attention at first.前克格勃(KGB)间谍普京非常擅长给他的西方辩护者发挥的空间,而且非常擅长编理由,无论它多么不合情理。他上台伊始就是这样,当时我担任《华盛顿邮报The Washington Post)驻莫斯科记者,而他正开始打压独立媒体和米哈伊尔#8226;霍多尔科夫斯Mikhail Khodorkovsky)等寡头。他的西方辩护者乐于相信他的话,即他只是在清理前任鲍里#8226;叶利Boris Yeltsin)留下的乱摊子,尽管他未能解释他为何努力摧毁自己继承的民主体制——诚然,它是有些缺陷。普京曾经对西方记者表示:“如果你所说的民主是让国家解体的意思,那我们不需要这种民主。”最初没什么人注意这一点。But it is not just Mr Putin’s skill at telling the west what he wants it to hear. He has also been lucky in his friends as well as his enemies. And by friends, I am not talking about the paid shills or leftwing western apologists who publicly defend him, disregarding his invade-the-neighbours, crack-down-at-home tendencies.但普京不仅仅是善于告诉西方他希望让他们听到的东西。他还有运气——不论从朋友还是敌人来看。我在这里所说的朋友不是他花钱雇的托儿,也不是无视他对外侵略邻国、对内打压异己的倾向而公开为其辩护的西方左翼人士。No, I am talking about the much more dangerous kind of sentiment that benefits Mr Putin and thrives in western capitals and usually, though much more quietly, prevails in debates over what to actually do in response to Russian aggression. These folks do not pretend that Putinism is great; they are not excusing his human rights violations or the cartoonish corruption of the Kremlin’s ruling elite. Usually, they are just being “realists Germany and other parts of Europe are too dependent on Russian energy to confront Moscow; the US, while terribly sorry, does not have a true “national interestin who controls which part of eastern Ukraine. Escalation could lead to a far more dangerous crisis, they argue, often persuasively, in this centennial anniversary of Europe falling into the Great War.我说的朋友是那种危险得多的情绪,这种让普京受益的情绪在西方各国非常盛行,而且虽然更加不动声色,却通常在针对俄罗斯侵略行为应采取何种实际行动的辩论中占据主导地位。这些人不会佯称,普京主义非常伟大,他们没有为他侵犯人权或克里姆林宫执政精英夸张的腐败行径辩解。通常来说,他们只是“现实主义者”。德国和其他欧洲国家过于依赖俄罗斯的能源,从而无法与莫斯科对抗;美国尽管表示极为遗憾,但它在谁控制乌克兰东部哪个部分的问题上没有真正的“国家利益”。在欧洲陷入一战一百周年之际,他们声称紧张局势升级可能导致更为危险的危机,而且这种说法常常颇有说力。And there is much validity to these arguments, which also have the benefit of being exactly what policy makers in an exploding world generally want to hear. The Washington Post’s David Ignatius recently characterised the debate about Mr Putin in the west as one between the “squeezersand the “dealers well, these are the dealers, and they are y to make a deal.这些观点很令人信,也正是政策制定者们在一个冲突不断的世界里通常希望听到的观点。《华盛顿邮报》的大卫#8226;伊格内修(David Ignatius)最近将西方关于普京的辩论描述为“挤压者”和“交易者”之间的辩论:恩,这些是交易者,他们准备缔结交易。Of course, Mr Putin’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula this year and the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 by a Russian-supplied surface-to-air missile over eastern Ukraine did provoke a real response: sanctions on Russia’s financial sector, its energy modernisation, threats of more. There has been nothing more infuriating to US President Barack Obama and his advisers than being told time and again by his hardline Republican critics that he has been soft on the Kremlin. Exasperated White House officials have told me repeatedly there would not have been any European sanctions, never mind tough ones, without constant nudging and pushing from the White House. And I believe it.当然,普京今年吞并克里米亚半岛,以及马航MH17航班在乌克兰东部被俄罗斯提供的地对空导弹击落,的确激起西方动真格的反应:对俄罗斯金融部门的制裁,对其能源现代化的禁制,还有威胁施加更多制裁。持强硬立场的共和党批评人士一再斥责美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)及其顾问对克里姆林宫太软弱了,没有比这更让后者恼火的了。愤怒的白宫官员们再三告诉我,如果不是白宫不断施压敦促,欧洲都不会实施制裁,更别说出台严厉的制裁措施了。我相信他们说的是真的。But it is also true that, while Mr Obama has pushed, and pushed hard, for economic retaliation, he has made clear that more assertive military measures are unlikely and even resisted other measures, such as stationing more troops in eastern Europe, bolstering Ukraine’s forces and the like. And besides, it is not just a willingness to accommodate and look the other way that give Mr Putin an advantage when it comes to dealing with Washington.但同样千真万确的是,尽管奥巴马推动、而且是大力推动经济报复,但他也明确表示,美国不太可能出台更为坚决的军事措施,甚至抵制采取其他措施,比如在东欧部署更多军队,持乌克兰军队等等。此外,让普京在与华盛顿打交道时具有优势的,不只是其愿意顺应形势并从对方角度看问题。The accelerating crises elsewhere in the world are also, unfortunately, likely to be good news for the Kremlin. With Iraq exploding and the Pentagon talking in apocalyptic terms about the dangers of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, the al-Qaeda spin-off known as Isis, and with Israel at war in Gaza and racial unrest at home, Mr Obama and his administration just are not going to have the capacity to focus on the festering war in Ukraine unless they are forced to. “I worry about Obama and team now being pulled into Iraq and losing focus on Ukraine,a former senior official told me the other day. Once again the refrain will be: “The EU has to lead.”遗憾的是,世界其他地方危机加剧也可能对克里姆林宫是好消息。随着伊拉克冲突爆发和五角大楼以大难临头的语气谈论基地组织(al-Qaeda)分“伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)的危险,随着以色列在加沙开战以及国内爆发种族主义骚乱,奥巴马政府无法集中精力应对乌克兰日益激化的战争,除非他们被逼得这么做。一位前高官有一天告诉我:“我担心奥巴马及其团队的精力现在被吸引到伊拉克冲突上,而不再关注乌克兰。”人们将再次老调重弹:“欧盟必须挑头。”And does anyone really think that it will?真的有人认为欧盟会挑头吗?来 /201409/325348

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