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2019年05月26日 09:33:57|来源:国际在线|编辑:养心时讯
When Nassim Nicholas Taleb was a teenager in Lebanon in 1975, an ethnic civil war broke out. Locals were baffled. They had thought they lived in a “stable paradise”. Once the unforeseen catastrophe began, even Taleb’s grandfather, the deputy prime minister, “did not seem to know what was going to happen any more than his driver, Mikhail”, wrote Taleb in his 2007 classic, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.1975年,生活在黎巴嫩的纳西姆?尼古拉斯?塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)十几岁时,一场民族内战爆发。当地人对此感到困惑。他们原本以为,他们生活在一个“安稳的乐园”里。塔勒布在他2007年的经典著作《黑天鹅:如何应对不可预知的未来》(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)中写道,当这场谁也没有料到的灾难爆发时,甚至连塔勒布的祖父、当时的副总理“对于未来会发生什么似乎也不比他的司机米哈伊尔(Mikhail)知道的多。”In 1940, when Daniel Kahneman was a Jewish boy living in Paris, the Germans invaded France. Kahneman’s family decided to stay put. Then came the Holocaust. While the family was in hiding, Kahneman’s father could not get treatment for his diabetes, and died. Kahneman was left wondering why humans fail to foresee catastrophe.1940年,当丹尼尔?卡内曼(Daniel Kahneman)是一个居住在巴黎的犹太小男孩时,德国入侵法国。卡内曼的家人决定留下。接着犹太人大屠杀(Holocaust)来了。全家人躲了起来,但他的父亲因无法得到糖尿病治疗而死去。卡内曼开始思考为什么人类无法预知灾难。Black Swan has just been reissued. Almost simultaneously, Michael Lewis has published The Undoing Project, about Kahneman’s intellectual collaboration with fellow psychologist Amos Tversky. Both books share an argument: people make bad judgments and terrible predictions. It’s a timely point. The risk of some kind of catastrophe — armed conflict, natural disaster, and/or democratic collapse — appears to have risen. The incoming US president has talked about first use of nuclear weapons, and seems happy to let Russia invade nearby countries. Most other big states are led by militant nationalists. Meanwhile, the polar ice caps are melting fast. How can we fallible humans avert catastrophe?《黑天鹅》刚刚再版发行。几乎同时,迈克尔?刘易斯(Michael Lewis)出版了《思维解谜》(The Undoing Project)一书,写的是卡内曼与同为心理学家的阿莫斯?特沃斯基(Amos Tversky)的学术合作。这两本著作提出了一个共同的观点:人们会做出糟糕的判断和预测。这是一个及时的观点。发生某种灾难的风险(武装冲突、自然灾难、民主崩溃)似乎已上升。新任美国总统提到过首次使用核武器,而且他似乎乐于让俄罗斯侵略邻近的国家。多数其他大国由好战民族主义者领导。与此同时,极地冰盖正快速融化。我们这些容易犯错的人类如何能够避免灾难呢?Today’s elites are often mocked for failing to foresee the financial crisis of 2008 but, in fact, such blindness is standard. In 1914, few people expected the first world war: the historian Niall Ferguson has shown that bond prices held up that summer, meaning that investors didn’t foresee higher government borrowing. Forecasters also missed the Holocaust, China’s Cultural Revolution and September 11.如今的精英经常被嘲笑未能预知2008年的金融危机,但实际上,这种失明是司空见惯的。1914年,几乎无人预测到第一次世界大战:历史学家尼尔?弗格森(Niall Ferguson)指出,那个夏天,债券价格持续上涨,这意味着投资者没有预测到政府借款增加。预测者也没能预见犹太人大屠杀、中国文化大革命以及9?11恐怖袭击。Our western generation is particularly ill-equipped to foresee catastrophes, because our countries have hardly experienced any since 1945. (We tend to forget our various close shaves with nuclear war, accidental and otherwise.) Now we are like Taleb’s famous turkey. Every day, he gets fed by a nice farmer. The turkey’s risk analysts make a forecast: based on past trends, he will keep getting fatter. Then, just before Thanksgiving?.?.?.?我们西方这一代人尤其没有能力预知灾难,因为我们的国家自1945年以来几乎从未经历过任何灾难。(我们往往会忘记与意外或非意外核战争的各种擦肩而过。)如今,我们就像塔勒布书中那只有名的火鸡。它每天由一位善良的农民饲养。火鸡的风险分析人士预测:根据过去的趋势,它会不断变肥。接着,就在感恩节前……How not to be that turkeyTaleb has some tips:怎么才能不成为那只火鸡呢?塔勒布提出了一些建议:You can’t know which catastrophe will happen, but expect that any day some catastrophe could. In Tversky’s words: “Surprises are expected.” Better to worry than die blasé. Mobilise politically to forestall catastrophe.你无法预知哪种灾难会爆发,但可以预料到每一天都可能有某种灾难爆发。用特沃斯基的话来说:“意外是预料之中的。”担忧好于麻木地死去。要在政治上动员起来防患于未然。Don’t presume that future catastrophes will repeat the forms of past catastrophes. The only catastrophes we seem able to imagine are ones that have happened before. After September 11, the US re-engineered itself to prevent another September 11. Now the cliché is that we’re back in the 1930s. Even Donald Trump, complaining about US intelligence agencies, asked, “Are we living in Nazi Germany?” However, we need to expand our imaginations. The next catastrophe may take an unprecedented form.不要假定未来的灾难会重复过去的灾难形式。我们能想象到的唯一灾难似乎是之前发生过的灾难。9?11事件后,美国重新设计了自己,以防止另一起9?11事件。现在的老生常谈是,我们回到了1930年代。就连抱怨美国情报机构的唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)都在发问:“我们住在纳粹德国吗?”然而,我们需要丰富我们的想象力。下一次灾难可能以前所未有的形式出现。Don’t follow the noise. Terrorist attacks and Trump’s tweets are spectacular. But some catastrophes unfold silently: climate change, or people dying after they lose their jobs or their health insurance. (The financial crisis was associated with about 260,000 extra deaths from cancer in developed countries alone, estimated a study in The Lancet.)不要跟随噪音。恐怖袭击和特朗普的推文引人注目。但有些灾难是悄悄演化的:气候变化,或者人们在失业或丧失医保之后死去。(《柳叶刀》(Lancet)杂志的一项研究估计,仅仅在发达国家,金融危机便与约26万的癌症死亡人数增加有关。)Ignore banalities. Most westerners instinctively tune out serious news because they have learnt that it rarely affects their lives. In the US in particular, so-called “TV news” is, in fact, entertainment. It fixates on “stories” such as Trump’s spat with the actor Meryl Streep. But these distractions have become dangerous. We now need to stretch and bore ourselves with important stuff.忽略无意义的东西。大多数西方人本能地不理会严肃新闻,因为他们习惯认为,这类新闻很少影响到他们的生活。特别在美国,所谓“电视新闻”实际上是节目。电视新闻主要关注“故事”,比如特朗普与演员梅里尔?斯特里普(Meryl Streep)的口水战。但这些消遣变得危险。我们现在需要扩展眼界,看一些重要的东西。Strengthen democratic institutions. The only western state designed specifically to ward off catastrophe is the Federal Republic of Germany. Unelected German judges are charged with defending the constitution against the people, if necessary. By contrast, France now exists under an endless state of emergency. If Marine Le Pen becomes president in May, she’ll have a fairly free hand.加强民主体制。唯一专为抵御灾难而设计的西方国家是德意志联邦共和国。非选举产生的德国法官肩负着必要时捍卫宪法不受民粹破坏的责任。相比之下,法国现在处于没完没了的紧急状态中。如果马琳?勒庞(Marine Le Pen)在5月当选总统,她将拥有相当大的自行决定权。Strengthen the boring, neglected bits of the state that can either prevent or cause catastrophe. Examples are the collapsing dam in Mosul, Iraq, or the US’s ropy nuclear command centres. Eric Schlosser, author of Command and Control, reports that in 2013 the general overseeing the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles “was removed from duty after going on a drunken bender” in Russia, where his exploits included “asking repeatedly if he could sing with a Beatles cover band at a Mexican restaurant in Moscow, and insulting his military hosts”. A year later, nearly 100 Minuteman launch officers were caught cheating on their proficiency exams. Then a launch officer was jailed for 25 years for running a violent street gang. These people have the keys to launch nukes. A check-up may be in order.加强政府中可能防止或导致灾难的平淡无奇、被忽视的部分。例子有位于伊拉克苏尔(Mosul)的即将坍塌的水坝,或美国的质量堪忧的核指挥中心。《命令与控制》(Command and Control)的作者埃里克?施洛瑟(Eric Schlosser)指出,2013年,管理“民兵3”(Minuteman III)洲际弹道导弹的那名将军因为在俄罗斯“当众醉酒”而被免职,他的“壮举”包括“在莫斯科一家墨西哥风味餐馆反复询问他是否可以跟一只甲壳虫翻唱乐队合唱,并侮辱军方接待人员”。一年后,近100名“民兵”导弹发射军官在能力考试中舞弊。接着,一名发射军官因为组织一个暴力街头团伙而被判入狱25年。这些人都掌握着发射核武器的钥匙。或许应该进行一项大检查。Listen to older people who have experienced catastrophes. Taleb notes that elephant tribes often rely on elderly females to assess threats.听听经历过灾难的老人的意见。塔勒布指出,象群经常依靠老年母象来评估威胁。Be conservative. Many Americans hope Trump will “shake things up”. As Noam Chomsky says, the risk is that he will. Often it’s smarter to maintain a flawed status quo. In Taleb’s words: “Don’t mess with complex systems, because we don’t understand them.”保持谨慎。许多美国人希望,特朗普将“改变现状”。正如诺姆?乔姆斯基(Noam Chomsky)所说,风险就在于他会这么做。很多时候,更明智的做法是维持有缺陷的现状。用塔勒布的话说:“不要乱碰复杂的系统,因为我们不懂。”Stock markets hit all-time highs after Trump’s election. What could possibly go wrong?特朗普当选之后,股票市场创下历史新高。可能是哪里出错了呢? /201702/490359The Australian state of New South Wales has announced new measures to prevent shark attacks on its beaches after a teenage surfer was attacked last week.上周,澳大利亚新南威尔士州一名未成年冲浪者遭到了鲨鱼袭击,对此该州已经出台了一些防止被咬的新措施。Programmes to catch, tag and relocate sharks will be stepped up using baited hooks attached to lines of floating drums, officials say.据澳大利亚官员表示,他们将用浮标绑上饵钩,从而来捕捉鲨鱼,给他们打上记录标签,然后放到其他海域去。The system has proved successful at catching sharks but conservationists say it is harmful to wildlife.该系统已经被实在捕捉鲨鱼方面很成功,但是环保人士认为这会对野生动物造成伤害。The so-called smart drum lines alert officials when creatures are captured.当有动物被捉到时,这些所谓的智能浮标线就会向政府发出警报。There are aly 15 of them off the state and 85 others would be rolled out, a statement said.据一份声明表示,新南威尔士已经赶走了15条鲨鱼,并且还将驱逐85条。New South Wales Premier Mike Baird said 31 great white and five bull sharks have tagged and relocated since May, according to Australia#39;s A broadcaster.据澳大利亚A广播电台报道,新南威尔士总督麦克·贝尔德表示,自从今年5月以来,已经有31条大白鲨和5条公牛鲨被打上标签、重新放回大海。 /201610/469621

When I was young, my household consisted of my mother, my grandmother, and my uncle. I had no contact with my father. My mother took a passive role in my upbringing causing my grandmother to raise me primarily. I lost her to severe pneumonia when I was 10.在我小的时候,家庭是由妈妈、外婆和舅舅组成的。我没有关于父亲的任何音讯。主要是外婆带我,母亲在我的成长过程中所扮演的角色非常被动。(可惜)在我10岁的时候外婆就因患上急性肺炎去世了。My mother tried to continue my grandmother#39;s efforts; although, began to fall short. She did not work and withdrew most days leaving me to my own actions/thoughts. My uncle, who was providing all financial support passed when I was 11 leaving my mother and myself with no financial support.母亲试图接下外婆的角色(来带我)然而好景不长。她不去工作,也不管我,大部分时间让我想做什么就做什么。11岁以前我和母亲生活,生活费都是舅舅出的,在我和母亲分开以后,就再也没有经济柱了。With my mother’s withdrawal from life, little financial skills, and poor organization. I did not have food, clothes, or discipline. After an investigation by child services, I was placed in foster care. Upon returning to my mother#39;s care, I had lost hope of a ;normal; life.母亲从我的生活淡出,而我也不具备任何挣钱的技能,收容机构的条件也很差,所以我吃不饱、穿不暖,也没有约束。在儿童务机构调查以后,我被加入了领养儿童名单。想到母亲对我的“照顾”,我对于“正常”的生活也不抱什么希望了。Prior to placement in foster care, I had volunteered at the local hospital to gain hospital experience, since I had wanted to be a doctor. After the foster home experience, I felt alone and destitute. I saw no hope of obtaining such a grand educational journey.在被领养之前,我在当地的一家医院参加志愿者活动,累计了一些医院务的经验,在那以后我想成为一名医生。在领养家庭的生活让我感觉到孤独与贫困,想到要求学路的漫长和花销,我感到非常的无望。At the age of 20, my son was born and I began working long hours. I continued to work; although, had many ups and downs along the path. My mother passed away when I was 23 leaving me with no close family.20岁那年我的儿子出生了,我开始延长工作时间。我一直不停地工作,其中也是波折不断。23岁那年母亲去世,除了我没有什么亲密的家人。I struggled with the gap in my life and felt alone, but continued on and was married at the age of 24. My daughter was born and I promised myself to strive higher in life. I took a chance and applied for a better job, which would double my salary —I was accepted!我感到人生的无常,感到孤独。但是生活依然继续24岁那年我结婚了,我的女儿出生了,我暗自许诺要过更好的生活。我抓住机会申请到了一个更好的工作,工资翻倍,而且被录用了!My life was again changed due to divorce and a lay-off at 27 years old. For my children, I decided to pursue college and my dream. Succeed or not, at least I tried. I began at the local community college and was then able to transfer to a 4-year college for a degree in Biology. I applied to 5 medical schools in the area to stay close to my children. I was accepted in 2006.27岁那年我的人生又发生了转折,我离婚还失业了。为了我的孩子,我决定去上学。不管成败与否,最起码我尝试过。我开始在当地的社区大学学习然后才能转入四年制的大学生物专业获得学位。为了和我的孩子们离得近,我申请了5所医学院。2006年我接到了入学通知。I dedicated myself and did not let anything distract me from my goal. I am now a practicing physician and could not be happier. I did eventually become close to my father only to lose him a few months before my medical school graduation. I am close with my son, who is now 22 and my daughter, who will soon be 18.我全心投入来达到自己的目标,不想让任何事情分心。现在我是一个职业医师,心愿达成,感觉圆满。在医学院的毕业典礼之前的几个月我的父亲去世了,这是我第一次了解他。现在我和孩子关系很近,儿子已经22岁,女儿也快成人。I continue to be inspired by those I meet who have gone through much worse than I and have achieved success. We can all obtain so much in our lives. I hope this story provides you hope.那些与我相比更加经历人世悲苦最终实现自我获得成功的人的故事,总是能打动激励我。生活教会我了我们这么多。如果我的故事也能给你带去希望那便好。 /201704/502841

A long distance relationship is awful. Almost not worth it. There, I#39;ve said it. It feels like a lifetime ago, but there was a point when my husband was merely my boyfriend, and we lasted through two years of a long distance relationship.“异地恋是可怕的,甚至是不值得的。”这应该是很多异地恋者的心里话。异地恋的时候,那种感觉就像是过了一辈子那么久,但是当我的老公还是我男朋友的时候,我们曾经有一段两年的异地恋。During that time, we learned a few things and I want to share how we were able to make it. Long distance is never easy, but it is doable.在那段时间里,我们俩都成长了很多,今天,我想和大家分享一下我们是如何克异地恋中存在的问题的。异地恋很辛苦,但并非是不可克的。1.Don#39;t Do It1.不要这样做Seriously. It#39;s awful, stressful, and draining. Still sound like something you want to try anyway? Ok, then maybe it is right for you.虽然异地恋太可怕,会让人筋疲力尽。但不管怎么说,很多人仍旧想试一试?Everyone told me at the time to not do it, but it only solidified the idea in my head that our choice was the right one for us.在我和男友异地恋的时候,我的朋友们都劝诫我放弃这段关系,但他们的话更加坚定了我的想法。Long distance definitely isn#39;t cut out for all couples, but there are certain people who are determined enough to work through it.对我们俩来说,异地恋是正确的选择。当然,异地恋并不适合所有情侣,但对于那些内心坚定想要克困难的人来说是值得尝试的。Just make sure you really put thought into it.一定要确保你真的想进行异地恋,做好足够的心理准备。2.Be Ready to Work Twice as Hard as You Did Before2.需要比从前付出双倍的努力Relationships take work. A long distance relationship takes even more work. But don#39;t confuse work with time. You need to work towards having a very strong, solid base to your relationship.维持恋爱关系需要花时间花精力。维持异地恋需要更加努力。但不要混淆恋爱的时间。为了有助于你们形成强大的,牢固的恋爱关系,你需要付出更多努力。Be open, honest and trusting. Take the time to figure out how best to communicate with each other — and when works for both of you.对恋人坦白诚实并且值得信任。花时间探寻出你们俩最佳的交流方式。Work at making each other feel special, even without seeing each other.即使你们不在一起,也要努力让双方都觉得自己是独一无二的。All the things you work on during a normal relationship will need extra effort for a long distance relationship.在异地恋中,你需要付出的努力要比你在一段正常的恋爱关系中多得多。3.Send Snail Mail3.给Ta写纸质信件Obviously texts, calls, Skype and email can and should still be utilized. But there is something special about getting something physical in the mail.现在的交流工具太多了,微信、电话都可以作为交流的工具。但是,实物的信件能让你感受到不同的东西。I loved receiving letters — seeing his handwriting and knowing he spent the time to sit down and write something out.我喜欢收信——看到他的笔迹就知道他有坐下来,将他的心情转化成文字一一写下。They also are wonderful to keep and be able to pull out and when you#39;re having a lonely moment. Reading an old text just isn#39;t the same.并且收藏信件是一件美妙的事情,当你独自一人的时候,你可以将它们取出,再次回味。阅读以前的文字总是能有与众不同的感受。 /201612/484384

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