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时间:2019年10月24日 07:10:35

Forecasts this week by the World Bank revived a prediction often made down the years: that growth in one of the Asian emerging market behemoths, India, would outdo that in the other, China. If this comes to pass, the correct reaction would be: about time too. And while in the medium term it would mainly reflect their relative positions in the economic cycle, sustaining it over a longer period will require Narendra Modi’s government in Delhi to play as good a liberalisation game as it talks.世界(World Bank)最近发表预测,作为亚洲新兴市场大国之一的印度,经济增长率将超越另一新兴市场大国——中囀?这是个老掉牙的预测,如果此次得以应验,那么正确的反应大概是:也该到时候了。在中期内,印度增长率超过中国可能主要反映出两国在经济周期中的相对位置,但假如印度想在长期内维持这一地位,就需要纳伦德#8226;莫迪(Narendra Modi)领导下的印度政府在自由化改革中做得跟说得一样好了。In truth, it is an indictment of India’s policy making over the decades that the thought of its economy outpacing China is a novelty. At a much earlier stage of development India’s per capita gross domestic product at purchasing-power-parity levels is less than half China’s the potential for catch-up should be enormous.事实上,印度经济增速超过中国成为新奇观点,是对印度过去几十年政策制定的控诉。印度所处的发展阶段比中国早得多(按购买力平价计算,印度人均国内生产总GDP)是中国的一半),追赶潜力本应是巨大的。Yet India, although it has succeeded in creating world-class software and business services companies, has never achieved the broad-based take-off in manufacturing that has lifted so many Asian countries out of poverty. This can be remedied. There is so much low-hanging fruit for economic reformers to pick in areas such as infrastructure, power supply, excess regulation and corruption that the tree is practically bent down to the ground. But political stasis at the centre, and the fact that much of the reform has to be done at the state level, restricts the ability even of a genuine reformist government to effect radical change.然而,尽管印度已成功创立了世界一流的软件和商业务公司,但一直没能在制造业实现广泛起飞,而许多亚洲国家当年都是凭借制造业起飞摆脱了贫困。不过这一点是可以纠正的。在基建、供电、过度监管以及腐败等领域,可供经济改革者摘采的低垂之果那么多,压得整棵大树几乎要趴到地上。中央的政治僵局,以及大多数改革必须在国家层面展开的事实,束缚了政府(哪怕是一个真正想改革的政府)实现彻底变革的能力。Clearly there is a large cyclical element in India’s current prospects. The monetary policy implemented by Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has been exemplary. Timely increases in interest rates at the end of 2013 swiftly quelled inflation. Accordingly, India’s economy gathered steam last year while many others, such as Turkey and Brazil, had to raise rates sharply in the face of high inflation and weak currencies. This week the RBI judged it had enough headroom to loosen monetary policy.显然,印度当前的前景中有一个很大的周期性因素。印度央Reserve Bank of India)行长拉古拉姆#8226;拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)实施的货币政策堪称典范013年末,他及时加息,迅速平息了通胀。因此印度经济才能在去年获得强劲的增长动力,而同时期的土耳其、巴西等许多国家面对高通胀和货币走弱都不得不大幅加息。上周印度央行判断自己有足够的空间放宽货币政策。With the RBI having made its contribution, however, Mr Modi’s government has yet to show it can match it by implementing plans to reduce the fiscal deficit and privatise a succession of companies. The privatisation campaign has run into difficulty, and India seems likely to miss its deficit target of 4.1 per cent of GDP this year without hefty spending cuts.印度央行已作出了自己的贡献,但莫迪政府在实行削减财政赤字、并私有化一系列企业的计划上,却还没有显示出与前者旗鼓相当的能力。私有化运动遇到了困难,而且如果不大幅削减开,印度今年看上去很可能实现不了赤字与GDP比例.1%的目标。Yet Mr Modi’s liberalisation drive has aly encountered fierce opposition from interest groups. A huge strike by coal miners protesting against his plans to deregulate the corrupt and inefficient sector forced the government to agree fresh talks to consider the strikersdemands. This is a pattern likely to be repeated in industry after industry.莫迪的自由化运动已遭到利益集团的激烈反对。煤矿工人举行了一次大罢工,抗议他的计划对腐败、低效的煤矿行业放松管制,罢工者迫使政府同意举行新的谈判,考虑他们的诉求。同样的情况可能在一个又一个行业中再现。The enduring gains if Mr Modi succeeds could be huge. India has some long-term advantages over China. First, its demographics are considerably better, with a relatively much larger cohort of young people entering the workforce. Second, while China requires great political upheaval to become a prosperous liberal democracy, India has only to improve the imperfect democracy it aly has. Third, China is beginning to exhaust the rapid manufacturing phase of expansion, and may find growth harder to come by in the future.如果莫迪取得成功,长期利益可能是巨大的。与中国相比,印度有几个长期优势。首先,印度的人口结构比中国要有利得多,即将进入劳动力市场的年轻人相对要多得多。其次,中国尚需要一场政治剧变才能成为一个繁荣的自由民主国家,而印度只需改进已有的不完善的民主制度。第三,中国以制造业快速发展为特点的经济扩张阶段即将走到尽头,未来可能会发现增长更难实现。Predictions of India overtaking China have been disappointed so many times over the decades that it is risky, bordering on foolhardy, to make them once more. Yet by virtue of his sweeping election victory last year and the happy macroeconomic position that India is currently in, Mr Modi has one of the best chances in a long while to fulfil a little more of the country’s vast but unused potential.过去几十年,印度经济增速超过中国的预言已经落空过如此很多回,使得再一次作此预言成了件冒险的、甚至近乎鲁莽的事。不过,凭借去年在大选中的压倒性胜利,以及印度目前乐观的宏观经济形势,莫迪得到了长久以来的一个最佳机会,可以将印度巨大的、但未得到利用的潜力多发挥出来一些。来 /201501/355494

For a moment during the summer of 2012 it seemed that Britain had at last left behind its lingering post-imperial neuroses. Comfortable in their multi-shaded skin, a people who had once ruled nearly a third of the world had found a new role as welcoming host. The London Olympics were a celebration of a new Britishness: diverse, outward looking, mindful of tradition but eager to embrace the future. True, post-crash austerity had dented morale, but the medals collected by Jessica Ennis, Mo Farah and their fellow athletes in “Team GBilluminated the road ahead.2012年夏天,英国一度似乎终于将其难以摆脱的后帝国时代的神经质抛诸脑后。一个曾统治世界近三分之一疆土的民族定位了自己作为热情东道主的新角色,并对自己的多元化感到十分惬意。伦敦奥运会是一场新“英国性Britishness)的庆典:多元化、外向型、铭记传统却也渴望拥抱未来。的确,金融危机过后的紧缩挫伤了士气,但是“大不列颠之队”中的杰西卡#8226;恩尼Jessica Ennis)、莫#8226;法拉(Mo Farah)等许多本土运动员所赢得的奖牌,照亮了前方的路。The moment passed. The Britain of 2015 feels a fractious and fractured place. Pride in diversity has made way for the rise of the anti-immigrant populism of the UK Independence party. The economy is growing again a lot faster than in the rest of Europe but so too, it seems, is a yawning gulf between the prosperous and the disadvantaged. Below the surface, the pillars of the old English Establishment have cracked.那一时刻已然过去015年的英国体会到一种困难重重而又离破碎的境地。对多元化的自豪之情已经为英国独立党(UK Independence party)反移民的民粹主义让路。经济再次实现增长——增速甚至比欧洲其他地方快得多——但繁荣地区和弱势地区之间巨大的鸿沟似乎也在进一步加深。表象背后,英国旧体制的柱已经出现裂缝。In spite of last year’s vote to remain within the four-nation union, Scotland could yet decide to strike out on its own. A political and cultural chasm has opened up between London, still the global hub of 2012, and a less prosperous English hinterland. The two parties that have dominated postwar politics David Cameron’s Conservatives and Ed Miliband’s Labour are retreating into regional redoubts. The ed Kingdom has rarely been so disunited.尽管去年经过投票继续留在联合王国之中,但苏格兰仍有可能决定自谋出路。在2012年仍是全球中心的伦敦和较不繁荣的英国腹地之间,政治和文化鸿沟已经拉开。主导战后政治的两个党派——戴#8226;卡梅David Cameron)领导的保守党以及埃德#8226;米利班德(Ed Miliband)领导的工党——正退守至区域阵地。联合王国很少出现过如此分崩离析的情景。National self-confidence民族自信心Britain has lost its international moorings. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars took a heavy toll on national self-confidence. A swing towards introversion has been reinforced by the economic imperative to cut deficits and debt. The armed forces have returned from defeats in Basra and Helmand to the prospect of sweeping reductions in military budgets. Facing rising euroscepticism at home Mr Cameron flirts with the idea of withdrawal from the EU, much to the puzzlement of friends and allies abroad. Mr Miliband is but silent on global affairs. The British, says a report from the think-tank Chatham House, still want to hold their heads up in the world but they doubt they can make a decisive difference.英国失去了国际撑点。伊拉克和阿富汗战争沉重地打击了英国的民族自信心。削减赤字和降低债务的必要经济举措又加强了英国向内向型的转变。从伊拉克巴士拉(Basra)和阿富汗赫尔曼德(Helmand)的战场失利中返回的军队,又遭遇军费预算被全面削减的前景。面对国内升温的欧元怀疑主义,卡梅伦玩弄着退出欧EU)的概念,让海外盟友均困惑不已。米利班德对国际事务一味保持沉默。英国著名智库查塔姆研究所(Chatham House,又名英国皇家国际事务研究所——编者注)的一份报告称,英国人仍然希望能在世界上昂首挺胸,但他们对自己是否能带来决定性的影响没有把握。Sir John Sawers, the diplomat-turned spymaster who until recently led the Secret Intelligence Service, speaks of a nation stepping back from the world in much the way the US withdrew into itself after the Vietnam war. As Vladimir Putin’s Russia marches into Ukraine, a senior figure in the US Administration wonders aloud if the fabled “special relationshipbetween Washington and London is being hollowed out. There is real doubt, he says, “about the commitment and credibility of the UK as a partner in preserving international peace外交官出身的间谍机构首脑、最近才卸任英国秘密情报局(SIS)局长的约翰#8226;索厄斯爵Sir John Sawers)称,英国从世界舞台撤回,就像美国在越南战争中脱身而关注本国事务一样。在弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)领导的俄罗斯进军乌克兰时,美国当局一位高级人物公开质疑华盛顿和伦敦之间传说中的“特殊关系”是否只剩下空壳。他称,“英国在维护国际和平中作为伙伴国的承诺和信誉”确实值得怀疑。In other circumstances, the general election set for May 7 might have galvanised the nation in a vigorous debate not just about the domestic economy and the shape of government but also about how best to adjust to a tougher, more precarious world.在其他环境下,定日举行的英国大选可能已经在全国掀起了一场轰轰烈烈的讨论,不仅是关于国内经济和政府构成,还关于如何最好地适应一个更严峻、更不稳定的世界。Elections should promise competing visions, alternative futures. Instead the campaigns thus far have exposed a profound disconnect between an outdated politics and the concerns and aspirations of the voters. Society and politics have fallen out of step. Vernon Bogdanor, professor of government at London’s Kings College who once tutored the young Mr Cameron at Oxford, talks of “a growing divergence between the constitutional and political forms of an earlier age and the social and economic realities of today选举应该是各路人马提出竞争性的发展愿景和不同的未来选择。然而,目前为止竞选活动已经暴露出过时的政治主张与选民的关切和期待之间的严重脱节。社会和政治的步调不一致。卡梅伦年轻时在牛津大学(Oxford)的导师——伦敦大学国王学Kings College London)政府学教授韦#8226;波格丹诺(Vernon Bogdanor),就指出了“早期宪法和政治形态与当今社会和经济现实之间日益扩大的差异”。Labour has lost the recruits once provided by the smokestack industries and a Conservative membership card no longer bestows social cachet on the upwardly mobile middle classes.工党已经失去了曾由传统工业输送的成员,保守党成员的身份牌也不再能给有望向社会上层流动的中产阶层赋予社会声望。Stranded by modernity无法适应现代世界This year marks the 800th anniversary of Magna Carta, the bargain struck between England’s King John and the medieval barons that is often seen as the foundation stone of British democracy. In moments of hubris, the English will tell you that the rule of law was the charter’s gift not just to Shakespeare’s Sceptered Isle but to the democratic world. The commemorative events were supposed to mark the constancy and stability of the habits and institutions of the nation’s unwritten constitution.今年是《大宪章Magna Carta)问世800周年,这份英王约翰与中世纪贵族之间的妥协文件常被视为英国民主的基石。在自大的时候,英国人会告诉你,法治不仅是《大宪章》为莎士比亚笔下的“权杖之岛Sceptered Isle)带来的灵感,也是《大宪章》对民主世界的馈赠。纪念活动本应突出这个国家不成文宪法中的惯例与制度的恒定性和稳定性。Yet the contemporary picture is one of a political system and set of constitutional rules that have been left stranded by modernity. Britain has outgrown its politics. For most of the postwar era the two-party (sometimes a two-and-a-half party) system delivered stable, single-party government. When Mr Cameron was obliged to go into formal coalition with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats after the 2010 election, it was seen as a temporary excursion into European-style, multi-party politics. The familiar, bipolar system would soon enough reassert itself. The prospect now, however, is for another inconclusive election outcome and, further ahead, for the permanent politics of minority administrations or coalitions.然而,当代的景象却是:英国的政治体制和宪法规则无法适应现代世界。英国的政治已经落后于这个国家。在二战后的多数时间内,两党制(有时是两党半制)缔造了稳定的一党揽政政府010年大选后,当卡梅伦不得不与尼#8226;克雷Nick Clegg)领导的自由民主党(Liberal Democrats)组建联合政府时,这被视为对欧洲式多党政治的临时借鉴,而英国人所熟悉的两极政治体制会很快回归。然而,如今看来,未来会再次出现非决定性的选举结果,说得再远一些,少数党政府或联合政府将成为长久的政治景象。The temptation is to treat this fragmentation the Scottish Nationalist party and the Greens have joined Ukip in challenging the traditional order as a fleeting phenomenon. Old political hands at Westminster talk about a natural reaction to hard economic times and to a peculiarly lacklustre generation of political leaders.人们很容易把这种离破碎——苏格兰国民Scottish Nationalist Party)和绿Greens)已经同英国独立党一道挑战传统秩序——当作一种短暂现象。威斯敏斯特的政坛老手认为,面对经济困难时期以及格外平庸无能的一代政治领导人,这种离破碎是自然反应。They have half a point. Living standards have fallen. Mr Cameron is a prime minister aiming for a place in history’s footnotes. Mr Miliband yearns for a mythical age when politicians of the left had no need to compromise with grubby capitalism. Their platforms lack ambition and optimism. For its part, Mr Clegg’s party is consumed by a fight for survival. The junior partners in coalitions rarely fare well.他们说对了一半。生活水平确实下降了。卡梅伦是一位想要名垂青史的首相。米利班德渴望的是一个左翼政客不必再向肮脏的资本主义妥协的神话时代。他们的政治纲领均缺少雄心壮志和乐观精神。而克雷格所领导的自由民主党为生存斗争而精疲力尀?联合政府中较弱势的一方很少有过得好的。Alongside the cyclical trends, however, there are deeper currents at work. The two-party system is falling victim to social and economic upheaval. As Mr Bogdanor writes in an essay for the UK Constitution Society, Britain is in transition from “the société bloquée of the 1950s, dominated by large socio-economic blocs based on occupation and class, to a more socially and geographically fragmented society然而,除了周期性趋势的影响外,还有更深层次的趋势在起作用。两党制正沦为社会和经济动荡的牺牲品。正如波格丹诺在为英国宪法学UK Constitution Society)所写的一篇论文中所称,英国正在从0世纪50年代基于职业和阶级的大型社会经济集团所主导的封闭社会,向在社会和地理层面更为碎片化的社会”转变。In 1951 the House of Commons counted six MPs who stood outside the two main parties. The number now is 85. Class-based ties have weakened and new lines have been drawn between Scotland and England, between young and old, and between north and south.1951年,英国下议院只名议员不属于两大政党。而现在不属于两大党的下议院议员达到了85名。基于阶层的联系已经弱化,在苏格兰和英格兰、年轻人和老年人、北部和南部之间,新的界线业已形成。There was a time when a large slice of the population was “bornTory or Labour. The Hansard Society, which carries out a regular audit of political engagement, says only 30 per cent of voters will now admit a firm party allegiance. Some 67 per cent cent say that the politicians “don’t understand the daily lives of people like us有一段时间,英国的很大一部分人口“生来”就属于保守党或者工党。定期评审政治参与情况的英国议会议事录学Hansard Society)表示,目前只0%的选民承认自己坚定地持某个政党7%的选民表示政界人士“不了解我们这种人的日常生活”。The Conservatives are now a party of the prosperous south. Tory MPs are nowhere to be found in Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham or Newcastle. Outside London the capital defies most of the trends elsewhere Labour struggles to win more than a handful of seats in England’s southern regions. The Conservatives have struggled in Scotland for over a generation. Now, having lost September’s referendum on independence, the nationalists threaten to trounce Labour in the contest for seats at Westminster.保守党现在成为了繁荣的南部地区的政党。在曼彻斯特、利兹、伯明翰或者纽卡斯尔,保守党议员无处可寻。伦敦是一个其他地方的大多数趋势无法适用的地方,在伦敦以外的英格兰南部地区,工党努力争取获得不至于少得可怜的席位。超5年以来,保守党一直在努力争取苏格兰地区的席位。眼下,在去月的独立公投中落败的民族主义者正威胁要在英国议会的席位争夺战中彻底打败工党。Not so long ago the winning party at a general election would command the support of more than 40 per cent of the electorate. Messrs Cameron and Miliband, each now fighting to lose less badly than the other, struggle to reach much above 30 per cent.不久以前,大选的获胜党还能得到超0%选民的持。而卡梅伦和米利班德如今正在努力不比对方输得更惨,争取让持率超过30%。Loss of authority权威的丧失The challenge is not just to the familiar hierarchy at Westminster. Henry Fairlie, a journalist who plied his trade during the 1950s, coined the phrase “The Establishmentto describe the nexus of traditions, institutions and powerful individuals at the apex of British society. Power still belonged to the landed, the Treasury and the Foreign Office, the bankers and brokers of City of London, the B and the press barons, the bishops and judges. Decisions were taken in the oak-panelled drawing rooms of the gentlemen’s clubs in St James’s.面临挑战的不仅是人们熟悉的英国议会。在上世0年代担任记者的亨利#8226;费尔Henry Fairlie)发明了“建制The Establishment)这个词,来描述由传统、制度和处于英国社会顶点、权势显赫的人物们组成的关系网。过去,权力属于有大量土地的人、英国财政部和外交部、伦敦金融城(City of London)的家和经纪人、英国广播公B)和媒体巨头、以及主教和法官。决策发生在圣詹姆斯St James’s)绅士俱乐部里装饰着橡木饰板的客厅。There are still corners where the ancien regime thrives. For all the well-publicised troubles of some of her immediate family, the steadying figure of Queen Elizabeth has kept the affection of her people and sustained the monarchy as the guardian of national unity. To adapt the 19th century essayist Walter Bagehot, she has not allowed the daylight to tarnish the magic.眼下,旧体制在某些地方依然兴盛。尽管伊丽莎白二Queen Elizabeth)的一些直系亲属的麻烦遭到广泛报道,女王本人稳定人心的形象仍让她得到了子民的爱戴,使君主制继续成为国家统一的守护者。套9世纪家白哲特(Walter Bagehot)的话,她没有让女王的魔力在日光下失色。There are other pockets of privilege: the aides charged with writing the Tory election manifesto are almost all, like Mr Cameron, alumni of Eton, one of Britain’s expensive public schools. Yet, as Britain’s power has waned so too has the authority of the Establishment networks. Mr Cameron’s inner circle of well-heeled chums grates with much of the electorate. One of his own MPs casts him a “Tory posh boyout of touch with the kitchen table preoccupations of the nation. The City has fallen into disgrace as a consequence of the financial crash and a succession of money-laundering and mis-selling scandals. Only this month HS has been found colluding in tax evasion. The British Social Attitudes Survey records that in 1983 some 90 per cent of voters thought banks were well-run institutions. By 2012 the level of trust had fallen to 19 per cent.还有其他一些特权的存在:负责撰写保守党竞选宣言的助手几乎都和卡梅伦一样,是英国贵族公学伊Eton)的毕业生。然而,随着英国的力量渐渐衰退,“建制”网络的权威也日趋式微。卡梅伦富有的心腹密友内围集团与大多数选民格格不入。他自己政党的一位议员把他叫做“托利党公子哥”,称他对国民们在餐桌上关心的事情毫不知情。金融危机和一系列洗钱和不当销售丑闻让伦敦金融城蒙羞。就在本月,汇丰(HS)被曝光帮助客户逃税。英国社会态度调查(British Social Attitudes Survey)的记录表明,983年,约有90%的选民相信是管理良好的机构。到2012年,对的信任比例已经下跌9%。As for parliament, the British have always shown a healthy scepticism towards politicians but this has curdled into deep cynicism in the wake of a series of expenses scandals. This week two former foreign secretaries, Jack Straw and Sir Malcolm Rifkind, were caught up in the furore about MPsbusiness interests. Sir Malcolm said he would stand down at the election.至于议会,英国人一向对政治人士表现出一种良性的怀疑,但在一系列金钱丑闻后,这种怀疑已经变成了深深的不信任。本周,两名前外交大臣——杰#8226;斯特Jack Straw)和马尔科#8226;里夫金德爵士(Sir Malcolm Rifkind)因利用议员身份谋取商业利益而引起大众的愤怒。里夫金德表示他将在选举前辞职。In the Church of England, bishops are sermonising to dwindling flocks. The press the 18th century constitutionalist Edmund Burke called it the fourth estate has been badly tarnished by the phone-tapping revelations. After myriad economic crises, the Treasury more closely resembles a spluttering East German Trabant than the Rolls-Royce of folklore. And Foreign Office diplomats, once at the very top of the Whitehall establishment and powerful emissaries of Britain’s international influence, have been told by their political masters to reinvent themselves as travelling salespeople for Britain plc.至于英国国教,聆听主教们布道的人群正在逐渐减少。被18世纪的宪政主义者埃德蒙#8226;伯克(Edmund Burke)称为“第四等级fourth estate)的新闻界也因为电话窃听丑闻蒙上了污名。数次经济危机以后,英国财政部更像是一辆嘎嘎作响的东德特拉贝特Trabant),而不是一辆闪耀着传统荣光的劳斯莱Rolls-Royce)。英国外交部的外交官们曾一度处于伦敦政府系统的顶点,是展现英国国际影响力的强大使者。而现在他们的政治主人告诉他们,要把自己改造成英国企业的流动推销员。Prisoner of the past历史的囚徒Many will bid a fond goodbye to the egregious bastions of self-perpetuating privilege. The age of unthinking deference has passed. Yet the more general corrosion of trust in the nation’s politicians and institutions has had unhappier consequences. As elsewhere in Europe, it leaves a vacuum of legitimacy, one being filled by the “antis the anti-elite, the anti-European, the anti-immigrant and the anti-capitalist. The populists have caught the temper of the times in offering disenchanted voters enemies rather than answers. Messrs Cameron and Miliband are chasing them to right and left.许多人将依依不舍地告别永续特权最坚固的那些堡垒。不经思考就从的年代已经过去。然而,人们在更大范围上渐渐丧失对政治人士和体制的信任,引起了更不幸的结果。就像欧洲其他地方一样,这催生了一种合法性真空,填补这种真空的正是那些“反对”阵营:反精英、反欧洲、反移民和反资本主义。民粹主义者抓住了这个时代的普遍情绪,向失望的选民提供了敌人,而非。卡梅伦和米利班德则驱使选民走向左或者右。The rise of nationalism in Scotland and Ukip’s success in promoting English identity politics speak to a union of nations that is losing the glue of Britishness. Some, such as the historian Linda Colley, suggest that this was always going to be so. Britain, after all, is an invented state, forged since the 18th century through imperial adventures, shared protestantism and common enemies. Mr Bogdanor’s answer is a new constitutional settlement a redistribution of power between, and within, the four nations of the union to match the social, economic and cultural realities of the times.苏格兰民族主义的兴起和英国独立党在推动英国身份认同政治方面的成功,呼应了这个正在失去“英国性”维系的民族国家联盟。一些人,比如历史学家琳#8226;科利(Linda Colley),表示事情总是会变成这样。毕竟,英国是一个人为构造的国家,是8世纪以后,通过帝国探险、共同信奉的新教主义和共同的敌人缔结而成的国家。波格丹诺提出的是达成一种新的宪制安排——重新在这个个民族国家组成的联盟之中,以及在各民族国家之间分配权力,以适应当代的社会、经济和文化现实。He is right. Britain needs a new way of governing itself and a new story a binding narrative that affords due respect to the past but is no longer imprisoned by it. London 2012 pointed the way.他是正确的。英国需要一种新的治理方式,一种新的表述——对过去给予恰当的尊崇、但不受制于过去的约束性表述012年伦敦奥运会为我们指明了方向。来 /201503/362000

A stickler for details, Jakarta governor Joko Widodo was enjoying himself on Thursday as he organised handouts for the poor, checked traffic conditions on his office CCTV system and discussed city hall politics with his brash deputy.7月的某一天,注重细节的雅加达省长佐科#8226;维多Joko Widodo)正在游刃有余地处理工作。他安排发放给穷人的救济,在自己办公室的监控系统上查看交通状况,并和作风张扬的副手讨论市政政治。But he was interrupted by urgent phone calls from the presidents of Sri Lanka and Timor-Leste a sign that this master of micromanagement is moving up in the world. Two days earlier, Mr Widodo had been elected the next president of Indonesia, the world’s third-biggest democracy, and they wanted to congratulate him.但斯里兰卡和东帝汶两国总统打来的紧急电话打断了他的工作——这是这位微观管理大师在国际上地位上升的信号。两天前,维多多当选为全球第三大民主国家印尼的下任总统,斯里兰卡和东帝汶两国总统打来电话表示祝贺。Despite his spectacular rise, he is keeping cool as he spends his last few weeks as governor. “I never thought I could be a president, coming from a poor family on the riverbank,he tells the Financial Times, wearing a dark batik shirt and black trousers. “But I’m calm, following the Javanese philosophy of ojo kagetan don’t get excited.”尽管引人瞩目地一跃成为下任总统,但维多多在其担任省长的最后几周仍保持头脑冷静。他身穿深色蜡染衬衣和黑色裤子,向英囀?金融时报》表示:“我出身于河边的穷人家庭,从未想过能成为总统。但我遵循爪哇人不要骄傲自大(ojo kagetan)的信条,现在很平静。”The world has seen accidental presidents before. But few have acceded to the top job accidentally on purpose.世人以前目睹过有人偶然当上总统,但没有几个人曾刻意地“偶然”当上总统。Just over two years ago, few in Indonesia or beyond had heard of the 53-year-old former furniture salesman who was then mayor of Solo, his sleepy home town in the province of Central Java. But an unexpected victory against a powerful incumbent in Jakarta’s gubernatorial election in 2012 thrust the softly spoken, self-made businessman on to the national stage. His campaign message then, and in the bitter presidential contest against former general Prabowo Subianto, was straightforward: I am not corrupt, I am down to earth and I get things done.仅仅在两年多前,印尼国内和国际上还很少有人听说过维多多。现3岁的他做过家具销售员,当时是中爪哇省(Central Java)梭罗Solo)市长。那个缺乏活力、睡意沉沉的城市是维多多的家乡。但维多多在2012年的雅加达省长选举中意外击败强大的当权派,这位温文尔雅、白手起家的商人从而登上了全国舞台。他竞选雅加达省长时的竞选宣言,跟他与印尼前将军普拉#8226;苏比安托(Prabowo Subianto)激烈角逐总统一位时的一样,都是简单直接的一句:我不腐败,我脚踏实地,我能做成事情。With his trademark red-and-blue checked shirt a symbol of his humble background and his folksy nickname of Jokowi, he charmed his way into power in a country where politics has long been dominated by an elite clique. Mr Widodo’s rapid ascent from obscurity rivals that of US President Barack Obama, to whom he bears a likeness.维多多常常穿一件标志性的红蓝相间格子衬衫(象征自己出身卑微),还有个草根味十足的绰号——佐科威(Jokowi)。凭借着自己的魅力,他在一个长期由精英集团主导的国家里攀升至权力巅峰。从默默无闻到迅速成为世界的焦点,维多多的经历可与美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)相媲美,两人的长相也有些相似。He has benefited from frustration with the graft-ridden establishment as much as from his own record of local government reforms. He has brilliantly exploited the political vacuum but, with three months until he replaces President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, there are weighty expectations on Mr Widodo’s slim shoulders. Can he mimic his earlier success at national level? Does he have the mettle to tackle structural problems such as the growing fuel subsidy bill, a shortage of infrastructure and endemic corruption? With Indonesia’s economic growth at a five-year low and investor sentiment towards this once-hot emerging market turning tepid, these are crucial questions.他的崛起不仅受益于民众对当权派腐败横行的失望,也受益于他推行地方政府改革的成功。他极其巧妙地利用了这种政治真空,但个月后就将接替苏西洛#8226;班邦#8226;尤多约诺(Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono)出任印尼总统之际,他瘦弱的肩膀眼下承载着厚重的期望。他能在印尼全国复制自己早期的成功吗?他有没有那样的勇气,去解决能源补贴账单日益高昂、基础设施匮乏和腐败横行等结构性问题?印尼经济增长正处年来的低点,投资者对这个一度炙手可热的新兴市场也失去了热情,因此这些问题眼下都至为关键。Born in 1961 in a humble riverside dwelling in Solo, Mr Widodo followed his parents into the small-scale timber industry. After studying forestry at Gadjah Mada university, one of Indonesia’s best, he set up his own furniture factory and began to export around the world. Although he had a position of prominence as head of the local furniture makersassociation, he was not well known in Solo when he stood as the city’s first directly elected mayor in 2005.维多多于1961年出生于梭罗市河边的一个小户人家,早年跟随父母开始做小规模木材生意。在印尼顶尖大学之一的加札马达大Gadjah Mada)攻读完林学之后,他创办了自己的家具厂,开始向世界各地出口产品。尽管当时他已经比较知名,是当地家具制造商协会会长,但005年成为梭罗市首位直选产生的市长时,他在该市并不为广大民众熟知。He won and was re-elected in 2010 with 90 per cent of the vote, after revamping the city of 500,000 people by refurbishing markets, relocating slum dwellers and driving growth by cutting red tape. This took him into Jakarta’s city hall two years later. In the capital he broadened access to health and education, kick-started long-delayed transport projects and ousted incompetent bureaucrats. On the presidential campaign trail, he trumpeted his municipal successes but struggled to elucidate a vision for the country.担任梭罗市长期间,他对这座拥0万人口的城市进行了改造,翻修市场、重新安置贫民窟居民、以简化繁琐手续推动增长,之后010年,他以90%的得票率成功连任。以此为基础,他在两年后当上雅加达省长。在雅加达,他扩大了医疗保险和教育的覆盖范围,启动了拖延已久的交通项目,并罢免了无能的官员。在总统竞选活动中,他大力宣扬自己在地方施政上的成功,却很难拿出一项全国层面上的清晰施政纲领。Under attack from Mr Subianto’s well-organised team, Mr Widodo saw a 30 percentage point poll lead evaporate to nothing. But a week before the election, on July 9, he upped his game and rallied his millions of campaign volunteers, who helped him to win by a margin of 6 per cent more than 8m votes.在苏比安托的组织良好的团队的攻击下,维多多曾眼看着自己在民调中30个百分点的领先优势化为乌有。但日大选前的一周里,他加大了努力,征集了数百万竞选志愿者,这帮助他以领个百分点(00万张选票)的优势赢得大选。A man of contradictions, he is beloved of both slum dwellers and bond vigilantes. Many Indonesians like him because, he says, he has “the face of someone from the village But he is also a successful businessman. He declared personal wealth of .5m during the election campaign, in a country where the average income per capita is ,500.维多多是一个矛盾之人,他既受到贫民窟居民的爱戴,也受到“债市侠客bond vigilantes)的拥护。他说,许多印尼人之所以喜欢他,是因为他长着一张“乡下人的脸”。但他同时也是一位成功的商人。他在竞选期间曾公开自己拥有250万美元的财富,而印尼的人均收入500美元。He won the presidency because of his image as a non-politician but is politically astute: Mr Subianto and his tycoon brother had backed his campaign to be governor of Jakarta in the hope that their support for a clean local leader would improve Mr Subianto’s questionable reputation. But, without publicly turning on Mr Subianto, Mr Widodo quietly launched his own presidential bid when he realised he was by far the most popular politician in Indonesia.他之所以能赢得选举,是因为他虽然长得不像政客,却具有政治上的敏锐性:苏比安托及其身为企业大亨的弟弟曾持维多多竞选雅加达省长,因为他们希望通过持一个清廉的地方领导人,改善苏比安托的可疑声誉。但是当维多多意识到自己是印尼迄今最受欢迎的政客的时候,他没有公开向苏比安托发难、而是悄然着手自己参选总统。Cheekily, Mr Widodo plays down his ambitions, claiming somewhat implausibly that he first thought of running for president “when my party proposed me as a candidatein March. Marcus Mietzner of the Australian National University warns that, despite his charm, Mr Widodo will struggle to manage relations with his Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle, chaired by mercurial ex-president Megawati Sukarnoputri, and with a fragmented House of Representatives. “He will not be the messiah that some people made him out to be,he says.维多多顽皮地掩盖着自己的雄心,他有些令人难以置信地宣称,当今年3月“其所在政党提出让他担任候选人的时候”,他才有了竞选总统的想法。澳大利亚国立大Australian National University)的马库斯#8226;米茨Marcus Mietzner)警告称,尽管维多多富有魅力,但他将很难处理好与他所在的印尼斗争民主党,以及派系林立的众议院的关系。米茨纳表示:“他不会如某些人期望的那样成为救世主。”印尼斗争民主党的主席是前总统梅加瓦蒂#8226;苏加诺普特丽(Megawati Sukarnoputri),此人性格反复无常。Mr Widodo himself does not offer any dramatic solutions. He simply promises to focus on improving the lives of Indonesians at a time when inequality is rising rapidly. His wife, who runs a wedding hall in Solo, and three adult children should help keep him grounded, having so far tried to avoid the spotlight.维多多本人没有提出任何引人注目的解决方案。他只是承诺将致力于改善印尼人的生活,而此际印尼的不平等状况正迅速恶化。维多多的家人迄今一直在努力避免成为公众关注的焦点。他的妻子在梭罗市经营一家婚纱店,三个孩子均已成年,他们应该会帮助维多多保持平衡心态。As he prepares to move into the presidential palace, he says he will not let the wall of security officers cut him off from the spot inspections that defined his approach to local government. “I must control them,he says, jabbing his finger in the air. “I must manage them, not them controlling me and managing me. In Indonesia, leading by example is very important. If I show the example, others will follow.”维多多在即将搬进总统官邸之际表示,他将不会让安保官员的屏障阻止他继续施行在地方政府执政时经常采用的实地考察。他手指空中说道:“我必须控制他们,管理他们,而不是让他们控制和管理我。在印尼,以身作则非常重要。如果我以身作则,其他人就会效仿。”来 /201408/322688

43 YEARS O43年前Two musk oxen for a pair of giant pandas. Who would make that trade?两头麝牛换一对大熊猫,谁会做这样一笔买卖?The Chinese did, when President Richard M. Nixon was on his world-changing trip to China in 1972.中国人就是这么干的,这件事发生在1972年,理查德·M·尼克松总统(President Richard M. Nixon)那次改变世界的访华之旅过程中。Thus renewed the American love affair with these jumbo creatures, the newest of which twins were born to the teenage panda Mei Xiang at the National Zoo in Washington on Saturday (one did not survive the week).于是美国人重新爱上了这种吃竹子的动物,就2日,华盛顿国家动物园的熊猫美香还产下了双胞胎宝宝,不过其中一只在一周内夭折。Panda diplomacy has had a long history, but before Ling-Ling and Hsing-Hsing arrived in the ed States (not long after Nixon returned from his trip), there hadn’t been a giant panda here for more than 20 years.熊猫外交历史悠久,但在大熊猫玲玲和兴兴抵达美国之前(尼克松从中国归来后不久),美国已经有20多年没有大熊猫了。At The New York Times, this was front page news, and it began with a vigorous debate about where the pandas would reside. In an article on March 1, 1972, Murray Schumach reported that “with the intensity of politicians bargaining for presidential convention delegates, zoo directors are bringing every kind of pressure to get one of the furry clowns with the black-patched white bodies and the black-ringed eyes.”玲玲和兴兴的到来成了《纽约时报》的头版新闻,先是一场激烈的争论,讨论它们到底应该住在什么地方。在1972日的文章中,默里·舒马Murray Schumach)写道,“众家动物园园长为得到一只黑白相间、带黑眼圈的毛绒小丑使尽全身解数,就像政客为了成为总统会议代表一般激烈。”The Bronx Zoo had a compelling case: “We still have the panda house with its sprinkler and swimming pool,its director, William G. Conway, was ed as saying in the article. “It is now inhabited by wallabies,Mr. Conway was further ed. “But we’d send them back with the kangaroos in 10 minutes if we could get a panda.”布朗克斯动物园有个很棒的熊猫舍:“我们仍然保留着带洒水器和泳池的熊猫房,”文中引用园长威廉·G·康韦(William G. Conway)的话说。“现在那个房间被沙袋鼠占了,但如果能够得到一只熊猫,我们可以在十分钟内把它们送回到袋鼠那里。”By March 13, Nixon had made his decision: The pandas would live at the National Zoo. The conversation then turned to another urgent question:33日,尼克松做了决定,两只熊猫将入驻国家动物园。接下来讨论焦点变成了另一个棘手的问题:“The sexual identity of the pandas has been discussed at the highest levels,Robert B. Semple Jr. wrote in an article on March 14. “While sunning himself in Key Biscayne, Fla., John D. Ehrlichman, Mr. Nixon’s top domestic policy adviser, received a call from a zoologist who said he feared that the Chinese might send two males or two females.”“最高层人士曾为熊猫的性别展开讨论,4日,小罗伯特·B·森普Robert B. Semple Jr.)撰文写道,“尼克松的最高国内政策顾问约翰·D·埃利希曼(John D. Ehrlichman)在佛罗里达州基比斯坎度假晒太阳时,接到一个动物学家的电话,说他担心中国人会送来两只雄性熊猫或两只雌性熊猫。”They did not. The girl panda, Ling-Ling, and the boy panda, Hsing-Hsing, arrived in early April and made their public bow on April 20. In another front page article, Nan Robertson reported that “the first to pay a callwas “Mrs. Richard M. Nixon, who giggled her way through introductions.”他们并没有这样做。女熊猫玲玲和男熊猫兴兴月初抵达美国,并0日第一次对公众亮相。在另一篇头版文章里,娜恩·罗伯Nan Robertson)写道,“第一个去看望熊猫的是理查德·M·尼克松的夫人,整个介绍过程中一直咯咯笑个不停。”Ms. Robertson ed Mrs. Nixon as saying: “They give you an extra dimension of joy.The first lady added, “I think everyone would like to cuddle them.”罗伯逊引用尼克松夫人的原话:“它们带给你特别多的快乐。”第一夫人还说,“我觉得所有人都想抱着它们。”For her part, “Ling-Ling lay on her log sofa, daintily nibbling on a piece of honey-b toast clutched in a forepaw.”与此同时,“玲玲斜倚在她的圆木沙发上,用一只前爪拿着一片蜂蜜烤面包,慢条斯理地啃着。”And what about those musk oxen?那两头麝牛又怎样了呢?“Frankly, I just don’t think musk oxen have the sex appeal pandas do,the National Zoo director, Theodore Reed, was ed as saying in another Page 1 article by Ms. Robertson. “You like musk oxen, but pandas can steal your heart away.”“坦白地说,我觉得麝牛不如熊猫那么性感,”罗伯逊女士在另一篇头版文章中引用国家动物园园长西奥多·里德(Theodore Reed)的话说。“你可以喜欢麝牛,但熊猫却能偷走你的心。”The article reported that Mr. Reed had personally escorted the musk oxen, Milton and Matilda, to Peking (now Beijing), returning with the pandas.这篇文章还报道,里德亲自护送两头麝牛——米尔顿和马蒂尔德——去往北京,并且带回了两只熊猫。“He confirmed that Milton was suffering from postnasal drip, possible depression, a cough and falling hair in the Peking zoo. Matilda is also reported to be feeling poorly.”“他实,米尔顿在北京动物园有点流鼻涕、咳嗽和掉毛,可能有点抑郁。据说玛蒂尔达状况也不好。”But thanks for the pandas.但是幸好我们得到了熊猫。来 /201509/397243


文章编辑: 排名晚报
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