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楼主:求医助手 时间:2019年11月17日 20:24:10 点击:0 回复:0
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The hunt for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 now depends on the willingness of governments and the military across Asia to hand over potentially sensitive radar and satellite data.对马来西亚航空公司(Malaysia Airlines)失联班机MH370的搜索行动,下一步将主要取决于亚洲各国政府和军方是否愿意交出可能较为敏感的雷达和卫星数据。Satellite data provided by London-based company Inmarsat have been crucial, but not enough, in the task of pinpointing the plane.位于伦敦的国际海事卫星组织(Inmarsat)提供的卫星数据非常关键,但还不足以准确定位失联航班。The Boeing airliner’s last communication was with an Inmarsat satellite at 8.11am local time on March 8, more than seven hours after it took off from Kuala Lumpur on a flight to Beijing with 239 people on board. Without other data, investigators are unable to plot where it went next.这架由波音公司(Boeing)生产的客机在当地时间3月8日上午8点11分与国际海事卫星组织的一颗卫星取得了联络,这是这架客机与外界的最后一次通讯,此时距离它从吉隆坡起飞已经过去了7个多小时。该班机本应飞往北京,机上共有乘客239人。在缺乏其他数据的情况下,调查人员无法判断班机下一步去往何方。But with scant history of international co-operation on intelligence sharing – and in some cases outright hostility – there are reasons to doubt whether Malaysia will get the data it needs as it leads a 26-country search for the aircraft 11 days after it disappeared.但考虑到在情报共享方面缺乏国际合作的先例——在某些情况下各国之间的态度甚至彻底敌对——马来西亚很可能得不到其所需要的数据。该国领导了一项有26个国家参与的搜索行动,目前距离航班失踪已经过去了11天。The search involves two corridors stretching from Kazakhstan and Pakistan in the north, across India and to southeast Asia and Australia in the south.搜索行动覆盖了两条走廊地带,北部一线从哈萨克斯坦延伸到巴基斯坦,南部一线从印度穿过东南亚直至澳大利亚。“If we are talking about a multilateral effort that relies on sharing of intelligence, I think we are in uncharted waters. Information and intelligence sharing is always a very sensitive issue,” said Ian Storey, senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.新加坡东南亚研究所(Institute of Southeast Asian Studies)高级研究员伊恩#8226;斯托里(Ian Storey)表示:“如果我们讨论的是依赖于情报共享的多国搜索行动,那么我认为我们目前处于一片无人探查过的未知领域。信息和情报共享永远是一个非常敏感的问题。”The search has now widened from an initial stretch of the South China Sea to a vast area of ocean measuring more than 2m sq nautical miles and land roughly equal to two-thirds of the land mass of the US.搜索范围已从最初的南中国海水域扩展至面积超过200万平方海里的广阔海域,以及约等同于美国陆地面积三分之二的陆地区域。Malaysia has asked countries for radar data, as well as satellite data and analysis.马来西亚请求各国提供雷达数据、卫星数据以及情报分析。The hope is that this, together with the Inmarsat information, will allow investigators to plot the airliner’s last trajectory – although Malaysia Airlines has confirmed it had only 30 minutes of fuel left when last in contact with the Inmarsat satellite, over the northern Strait of Malacca.调查人员希望借助这些数据以及由国际海事卫星组织提供的信息,推测出失联班机最后的飞行轨迹,虽然马航已经实,失联班机在最后一次与国际海事卫星组织的卫星联系时——当时班机位于马六甲海峡北部上空——燃料存量仅够其继续飞行30分钟。In some cases, countries will be asked if their military have radar data that could help. But with information sharing between military authorities generally taking place only bilaterally, analysts say some may hold back key data.在某些情况下,各国可能会被问到其军方是否拥有对搜索行动有帮助的雷达数据。但鉴于军方信息通常仅会在两国之间共享,分析师们认为一些国家可能会在关键数据上有所隐瞒。“Generally, military intelligence sharing among southeast Asian states has been minimal – the prevailing strategic uncertainties coupled with political distrust, resource constraints and varying technological capabilities have precluded military transparency,” said Michael Raska of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究院(S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies)的迈克尔#8226;拉斯卡(Michael Raska)表示:“通常来说,东南亚国家之间的军事情报共享非常少见——除了战略上的不确定性这一主要原因以外,政治上的不信任、资源限制、以及参差不齐的技术水平也导致了军事情报的不透明。” /201403/280862Life#39;s pretty good these days for French economist Thomas Piketty, who spent Wednesday evening having his book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, lavishly praised by two of the world#39;s most famous economists -- Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz -- who just happen to own three Nobel Prizes between them.法国经济学家托马斯·皮凯蒂这些天来过得相当舒。上周三晚上,经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼和约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨都高度评价了皮凯蒂撰写的《21世纪的资本》(Capital in the Twenty-First Century)——两人都属于全球经济学界最知名的群体,一共获得过三次诺贝尔经济学奖。Piketty would probably prefer that the book that is garnering him such attention were the bearer of better news. But economists don#39;t tend to gain renown by assuring the public that everything is A-Okay. That is certainly not the message of Capital, a 600-plus page work that convincingly warns ers that rising global wealth and income inequality over the past generation is actually the norm for capitalist economies, and that we should expect that trend to continue in the years to come.也许,皮凯蒂更愿意看到这本让他这么受关注的书给人们带来好一点儿的消息。但经济学家成名的原因往往不是告诉公众一切安好。这本600多页的书当然也不会传递出这样的信息——它以令人信的方式告诫读者,过去几十年中,全球财富和收入差距扩大的局面实际上就是资本主义经济的常态,而且今后这种趋势还会继续下去。The title of the book is an allusion to Karl Marx#39;s famous critique of capitalism, and Piketty#39;s analysis shows that Marx was right to believe that wealth concentration would inexorably increase in capitalist societies. Piketty draws upon work he and colleagues like Anthony Atkinson of Oxford and Emmanuel Saez of Berkeley have done in recent years to show that income and wealth inequality are increasing in the rich world, and to argue that the more egalitarian economic distribution seen after World War II was an anomaly that we can#39;t expect to return to unless we implement government policies to bring it about.这本书的题目效仿了卡尔o马克思著名的资本主义批判理论。马克思认为,资本主义社会的财富集中无可避免,皮凯蒂的分析明了这条思路的正确性。皮凯蒂采用了最近几年自己和同行们的研究成果,这些同行包括牛津(Oxford)大学教授安东尼o阿特金森和加州大学伯克利(Berkeley)分校教授艾曼努尔o赛斯。皮凯蒂用这些研究成果表明,富裕国家的收入和贫富差距正在拉大。他还指出,二战后经济领域的分配情况较为平均是一种反常现象,除非政府出台相关政策,否则这种局面就不会再次出现。A debate on Wednesday evening at CUNY#39;s The Graduate Center featuring Piketty, Krugman, Stiglitz, and University of Wisconsin economist Steven Durlauf helped distill some of the ideas presented in Capital, and to critique its weaker points.上周三晚上,纽约市立大学(CUNY)毕业生中心举行了一场辩论会,出席者包括皮凯蒂、克鲁格曼、斯蒂格利茨以及威斯康星大学(University of Wisconsin)经济学家史蒂文o杜尔拉夫。他们对《21世纪的资本》(Capital)中的部分观点进行了提炼,同时指出了它的不足之处。Piketty#39;s colleagues were quick to praise the book. Krugman lauded it as a ;unified field theory; of economics which joins together the study of economic growth, the distribution of income between capital and labor, and income inequality. Stiglitz was equally taken by the work, arguing that Americans would not be bothered by increased inequality if it were based on merit within a society that enables class mobility. But the U.S. is near the bottom when it comes to social mobility.皮凯蒂的同事们都积极评价这本书。克鲁格曼把它誉为经济学领域的“统一场理论”,并称其中的研究融合了经济增长、资本和劳动力之间的收入分配以及收入差距。斯蒂格利茨对这本书也持同样的观点。他说,美国实现了人们在各个阶层之间的流动,如果这本书以美国社会的这个优点为基础,就无法让美国人注意到贫富差距正在扩大。但美国的社会流动性接近全球最低水平。Durlauf played the role of the critic in the debate, poking holes in some of the more technical aspects of Piketty#39;s argument, like his dismissal of the ;marginal product theory; of wages (which basically asserts that a worker is paid based on his marginal contribution to a commercial enterprise) without suggesting some theory to replace it. He also suggested that Piketty should spend more time thinking about whether technology could be the reason, rather than capitalism itself, for growing disparities in wealth and income.杜尔拉夫充当了辩论会上的批评者,他从更为技术性的层面指出了皮凯蒂论述中的漏洞,比如皮凯蒂不同意工资的“边际产品理论”(这项理论的基本内容是,工人得到的报酬取决于他们对商业企业的边际贡献),但他没有提出其他理论来予以替代。杜尔拉夫还说,皮凯蒂应该花更多的时间来探讨造成贫富和收入差距拉大的原因是否应该是技术,而不是资本主义本身。This critique, like those that have been offered by conservative economists Greg Mankiw and Kevin Hassett, doesn#39;t do anything to challenge the evidence that pre-tax income and wealth inequality is growing very quickly in the rich world. Mankiw, for instance, has argued that things like government subsidies, social security, and welfare have increased people#39;s after-tax income, so Piketty#39;s evidence of rising inequality shouldn#39;t be taken seriously. But such programs just show that the government is aly responding to increased inequality by redistributing wealth.和保守派经济学家格雷格·曼昆以及凯文·哈西特提出的观点一样,杜尔拉夫的意见丝毫不能改变这样一个事实,那就是,富裕国家的税前收入和贫富差距正在迅速扩大。举例来说,曼昆认为政府补贴、社会保障和福利等因素提高了人们的税后收入,因此,皮凯蒂列举的贫富差距拉大据不应该受到重视。但这些因素恰恰表明,政府已经开始通过重新分配财富来解决贫富差距扩大的问题。The most interesting argument against Piketty#39;s idea that a global wealth tax is needed to combat inequality comes from Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute. He points out that the rise in inequality in the wealthy world over the past generation has been matched by similarly striking reductions in global inequality, and if we are studying this issue on a global scale, this reduction in inequality makes the need for a global wealth tax seem unnecessary. Hassett also believes it#39;s important for those of us in the developed world to not take a self-centered view of global capitalism, and that we should be hesitant to mess with a system that has brought so many people out of poverty over the past 30 years.皮凯蒂认为,需要通过在全球范围内征收财富税来缩小贫富差距。对此,来自美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的凯文o哈西特提出了最有意思的反驳意见。哈西特指出,过去二、三十年来,全球贫富差距缩小的幅度和富裕国家贫富差距拉大的幅度相仿,如果在全球范围内研究这个问题,那么在贫富差距缩小的情况下似乎没有必要征收财富税。哈西特还认为,要点在于,发达国家的人们不要以自身为中心来观察整个资本主义世界,他们不应该忽视这样一个事实,那就是30年来资本主义体制让如此之多的人摆脱了贫困。But none of Piketty#39;s critics have been able to disprove the rise in pre-tax wealth and income inequality on a national level. Capital, in other words, has shifted the debate from the question of whether inequality is a problem to what exactly we should do about it.但对皮凯蒂的所有批评都没能明各个国家的税前收入和贫富差距没有扩大。换句话说,这本书已经让争论的焦点从贫富差距是否带来了问题发生了转变,变成了我们究竟应该怎么应对贫富差距。 /201405/301278In the wake of the latest disaster involving Malaysia Airlines, more and more questions are being asked about the financial viability of the airline, as well as the legal fallout and the rights of victims’ families.最新一起马航坠机事件发生后,人们不断地对马航的财务能力、法律责任以及遇难者家属的权利提出了很多问题。But financial questions aside, there are distinct differences between MH 370 and MH 17.抛开财务问题暂且不谈,MH370和MH17这两起事故之间有一些显著差异。MH 370 remains a mystery (and may remain so for quite some time). It’s also one of the more unusual crashes from an insurance payout perspective because it’s very difficult to litigate negligence and liability in the absence of any hard evidence. It may turn out to be one of the least expensive cases in history.MH370仍是一个谜(而且可能在很长一段时间内都是如此)。从保险赔偿的角度而言,这也是不同寻常的一起事故,因为在缺乏确凿据的情况下,很难以过失和追责提起诉讼。这可能成为史上赔偿最少的事故之一。MH17, however, is very different. The issue won’t be whether claims will be filed, but when, where and how many defendants will be named. Aly there’s a huge shopping list of defendants, ranging from the airline (always named in cases relating to a plane crash) to individual governments. Remember Pan Am 103? In the end the Libyan government paid large settlements to the families. But given the current situation in the Ukraine, the legal process here could get very messy and very complicated very quickly.但是,MH17坠机事故完全不一样。问题不在于是否会提出索赔,而是何时何地提出索赔,将涉及多少名被告。现在已有一大批潜在被告,从马来西亚航空公司(在飞机失事的案例中航空公司肯定是被告)一直到个别政府。还记得泛美航空103航班吗?最后利比亚政府向遇难者家属付了巨额赔偿金。但考虑到乌克兰目前的形势,此次事故的法律程序可能会变得非常混乱和复杂。It could ultimately end — at least in the civil cases filed — with a judgment issued against the Russian government, if families and governments can prove the country armed the separatist rebels allegedly responsible for the crash. That would likely take years, and almost certainly, Russia would either appeal, or simply ignore the judgment. If that happens, there’s precedent to expect at least an attempt by those parties to seize Russian assets in various countries around the world. First country expected to file lawsuit? The Netherlands. The assets likely to be on the target list: Aeroflot planes on the ground in foreign airports, and Russian cruise ships in foreign ports.如果遇难者的家属和政府能够明俄罗斯为乌克兰分裂分子提供了肇事武器(据称客机是被乌克兰分裂分子击落),最终的判决可能会对俄罗斯政府不利(至少在民事诉讼案件中会是这样)。这可能需要几年的时间,而且几乎可以肯定的是,俄罗斯要么上诉,要么干脆无视审判结果。如果出现这种情况,依据先例,至少相关方会试图没收俄罗斯在世界各国的资产。那么哪个国家可能会首先提起诉讼呢?荷兰。可能会出现在没收目标清单上的资产包括俄罗斯航空公司停靠在国外机场的飞机以及停泊在外国港口的俄罗斯游轮。In the short term, the Montreal convention protocols for awarding victims’ families payment will again be applied. The 1999 agreement limits claimants to about 4,000 per death, and will be paid regardless of the cause of the crash, including war or terrorism. (This payment could be as high as million, and would come from Malaysia Airlines’ insurers.)在短期内,有关方面将再次依据蒙特利尔公约向遇难者家属进行赔偿。该公约于1999年签订,规定每位遇难者的赔偿数额为174,000美元,而且赔偿金付不受事故原因(包括战争或恐怖主义)的限制。(此次赔偿金额可能高达4900万美元,而且可能由马来西亚航空的保险公司付。)But claimants will most certainly seek more damages. And in this case, one of the claimants will most certainly be Malaysia Airlines itself.但索赔人肯定会要求更多赔偿。在这种情况下,马来西亚航空公司本身肯定也会提起索赔。Insurance issues aside, there are other immediate ramifications. For one, the airline industry will move quickly to reroute their planes over any area of conflict. This is a complicated move, because a 200-300 mile diversion (or more) means significant fuel costs and operational challenges. Some long haul nonstop flights may now have to land for refueling. In the process, the cost of the flights goes up, crews may have to be repositioned, and flight schedules may not offer connectivity because of the delays. Don’t be surprised to see a “war-risk” or “conflict” fuel surcharge added to the cost of those tickets because of these navigational changes.除了保险问题之外,此次事故还将产生其他直接影响。例如,航空业很快会更改飞机航线,以避免经过任何冲突区域。这是一项复杂的举措,因为绕航200-300英里(或更多)将带来大量的燃料成本和运营挑战。部分长途直达航班现在可能需要在中途着陆加油。在这个过程中,航班成本将上涨,乘务人员可能需要重新配置,而且由此产生的航班延误可能会导致航班之间无法进行直连。鉴于这些航行路线的变化,机票费用中到时可能会增加“战争风险”或“冲突区域”燃油附加费,届时您也不用太惊讶。Historically, commercial airlines have long flown over conflicted areas. As you are ing this, at least 20 U.S. commercial airplanes are overflying Cuba. Airlines flying to Jordan are handled on approach by Israeli air traffic control. Commercial airlines overfly Syria, Somalia, Northern Iraq, to name a few.从历史上来看,商业航空公司的飞机经常在冲突地区上空飞行。当你在读这篇文章时,至少有20架美国商业飞机正飞越古巴上空。飞往约旦的航班是由以色列空中交通管制处理。商业航班仍在叙利亚、索马里、伊拉克北部等地区上空飞行。During the Vietnam War, Air France had a daily nonstop from Paris to Hanoi. The North Vietnamese knew it. The South Vietnamese knew it. And the U.S. knew it. And that plane was never attacked.在越南战争期间,法国航空公司每天都有从巴黎直飞河内的航班。这一点北越知道,南越知道,美国也知道。但该航班从未遭遇攻击。But the missile attack that downed MH 17 was a game-changer, and in the risk business, the stakes were just raised stratospherically. The insurance companies that write war-risk policies are now beginning to change their exclusions to add a much wider tract of territory that they now would characterize as a war zone. In doing so, they are putting airlines on notice that—with or without government orders—an airline flying over that zone would be violating the terms of that particular policy. And no airline is going to do risk voiding its coverage.但马航MH17航班被导弹击落这起事故将带来重大改变,在风险业务方面,此类风险因此次事故而大幅提高。承保战争险的保险公司从现在开始将更改其免责条款,将更广泛的地区定义为战区。这样做也是提请航空公司注意(无论有没有政府的命令),飞机飞越该区域即违反该保单的条款。而任何一家航空公司都不会以失去保险覆盖为代价而以身试险。Meanwhile, at the scene of the crash, the retrieval of the black boxes (the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder) may only have symbolic significance and may have no real constructive role in determining the details of the crash. At this point, assuming they are found intact, not compromised and taken to the appropriate air crash investigation lab, about the only thing the black boxes can contribute is an exact time when the plane was hit with the missile and the aircraft lost electric power.同时,在坠机现场取回的黑匣子(驾驶舱语音记录器和飞行数据记录器)可能只具有象征意义,在确定坠毁细节方面并不会起到真正的建设性作用。目前,假设黑匣子完好无损,没有被动过手脚且交由适当的空难调查实验室处理,则黑匣子能提供的也只有飞机被导弹击中以及失去电力的确切时间。What’s crucial to the investigators is getting their hands on the fuselage. They need to inspect the metal for definitive signs of striation marks (which would be consistent with chemical explosive, like Semtex, which they quickly discovered on the inside of the fuselage of Pan Am 103) and for the shape of the metal. Twisted out is consistent with an explosion from inside the plane. Twisted in– with burn marks – is consistent with an explosion from outside the plane. Over the next 96 hours, assuming the investigators have unfettered access to the site, they should be able to construct a timeline, and a forensic trail that could give them the chemical DNA they need to lead them back to the missile manufacturer and perhaps even the end-user.对调查人员而言,机身现场调查是至关重要的。他们要检查金属是否有确切的波纹痕迹(波纹痕迹意味着化学品爆炸,如塞姆汀炸药,当年调查人员在泛美103航班的机身内部很快就发现了这种炸药)以及金属机身的形状。向外扭曲说明是飞机内部爆炸,而向内扭曲并带有燃烧痕迹则表明是飞机外部爆炸。在未来的96小时内,如果调查人员能够自由进入事发地点,那么他们应该能够确立一个时间表,并获得相关的法医线索,而后者可能会给出他们所需的化学品成分,来追溯导弹的制造商,甚至还能查出终端用户。Then there is the aforementioned chain of custody issue—meaning the issue of proving who supplied the weapon and who fired it. Even if we gain clarity on that in the near term, it does not mean it will be settled in a court of law anytime soon. In the next four days, we should be able to learn conclusively the when, the how and the where of the downing of MH17. We might even soon learn the who. But proving who’s responsible in a court of law, and giving families their due, could easily take years.待这一过程结束之后,我们将回到之前提到的监管链问题,即明武器的提供方和导弹发射方是谁。即使这个问题在短期内水落石出,也并不意味着问题很快就能在法庭上解决。在未来四天内,我们将确切得知关于MH17航班被击落的时间、方式和地点。甚至可能很快就会知道元凶是谁。但是,法庭上责任方的判定,以及随后给予遇难者家属应有的赔偿可能需要耗费数年的时间。 /201407/314737

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