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Israel and Palestine以色列和巴勒斯坦Take a break僵局再起The two-state solution is still the only one that makes sense. But it wont happen this time round目前两国制仍是解决巴以问题的唯一方式,但这一次依然无法实现。IT IS a cliché: every time a worthy mediator, in this case John Kerry, Americas secretary of state, sets about ending the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, people say the clock-hand has reached “a minute to midnight”; disaster will follow if the parties fail to agree. By Mr Kerrys timetable, the chimes will ring out dolefully at the end of this month (see article). He may find a last-minute rewinding ploy to keep both sides burbling a bit longer. But there is scant chance, even with that extension, of a two-state deal being done. Mr Kerry has tried his heroic best, but this round of peacemaking is fizzling out.这已经是老生常谈了——每当有分量的调停人出现,希望终止巴以冲突时(这一次的大人物是美国国务卿克里),人们就知道了,核威胁怕是迫在眉睫了。一旦双方谈崩,便是灾难的开始。对克里来说,本月底很可能就是哀歌奏响的最终期限。也许他还能找到缓兵之计,使两方继续谈判,但即使再拖下去,两国制的方针也很难真正实现。克里已经勇敢地做出了最大的尝试,但这一轮的调和谈判还是以失败告终了。Disaster will not immediately follow. As things stand, Israel is not under threat, despite its understandable aversion to the prospect of other states in the Middle East, such as Iran, matching it with nuclear weapons. Israel is a prosperous democracy in a region of chaos and bloodshed. Binyamin Netanyahu, its prime minister (pictured left), is unchallenged. The Palestinians demanding a state are weak, divided and quiescent; morose as they are, few favour a return to suicide-bombing.不过灾难也不会瞬间降临。就现在的情况来看,尽管中东的邻国,如伊朗,正在向成为核国家迈进,但以色列并没有遭受实际的威胁。在这片混乱而血腥的土地上,以色列以一个富饶的民主国家屹立于此。本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Binyamin Netanyahu)作为以色列的总理,他的地位无可争议。巴勒斯坦也要求成为独立国家,尽管他们软弱、分裂、僵化,且国民性格孤僻,但只有极少数人还持自杀式爆炸这种恐怖暴力行为。Yet Israel cannot afford to be complacent in the longer run, for this stalemate poses a real threat if the country is to preserve its essence as both Jewish and democratic. It cannot stay both, if it indefinitely controls the Palestinian territories and their people while denying them full rights under Israeli law, including the vote. And if the Palestinians were enfranchised, demography suggests that a Greater Israel between the Mediterranean and the Jordan river, including Gaza, would no longer be predominantly Jewish. Israel must give the Palestinians a proper state of their own if it is to remain a Jewish democracy.但长久来看,以色列无法自给自足。如果它想要保持自己犹太民主国家的本质,那么这一次的僵局将对其造成真正的威胁。如果以色列无限期地掌控着巴勒斯坦的领土和人民,却又根据以色列的法律拒绝给予他们包括选举权在内的各项权利,那它是无法保持既犹太又民主的本质的。如果巴勒斯坦公民拥有了选举权,那从人口学上看,地中海到约旦河,包括加沙在内的大以色列地区的大部分人口将不再是犹太人。如果以色列想要以犹太民主国的身份存在,那就必须给巴勒斯坦人应有的一个真正意义上的国家。Mr Netanyahu knows this. But most of his own Likud party and much of his coalition still roundly reject the two-state idea, and he is loth to face them down. This time, he has added a clutch of extra demands which his predecessors, notably Ehud Barack at Camp David in 2000 and Ehud Olmert in Jerusalem in 2008, saw no need for—on such issues as boundaries, Jerusalem and the Jordan valley, which many in Likud now want to annex. He has let Jewish settlements on the West Bank expand as fast as ever. And he says the Palestinians must first acknowledge Israel as a specifically Jewish state.内塔尼亚胡明白这一点。但他所在的右翼利库德党(Likud party)和他所领导的政府仍然坚决抵制两国制的想法,他本人也不愿说反对者。这一次,他还在谈判中附带了更多的要求,如两国边界问题,耶路撒冷和约旦峡谷问题,这都是利库德党中很多人想要吞并的地区,但内达尼亚胡的前任们,主要是埃胡德·巴拉克(Ehud Barack)和埃胡德·奥尔默特(Ehud Olmert)分别在2000年的大卫营和2008年的耶路撒冷就已经看出这些要求是没有意义的。他让约旦河西岸地区的犹太人定居点通过去一样快速扩大,同时他还认为巴基斯坦人应最首先认可以色列是一个独立的犹太国家。The Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas (pictured right), says he cannot submit to such demands as a precondition. He would be ditched by his own people if he were to cast Israels Arabs (who are a fifth of Israeli citizens) into what they see as a second-class status and to disavow the Palestinians claimed “right of return” to Israel proper. The fact that the Palestinians will have to climb down in the final stage of any deal only adds, like the Israeli demands, to a sense of bluster.巴勒斯坦领导人马哈茂德·阿巴斯(Mahmoud Abbas)表示,他无法接受这些作为前提条件的要求。如果他将以色列的阿拉伯人(以色列的第五类公民)算入二等公民,并否认巴勒斯坦人宣称的回到以色列的合法权利,那么他将被自己的人民所抛弃。事实是,巴勒斯坦人将在谈判的最后阶段一味妥协,这只会增加民愤,而这正是以色列希望看到的。In an ideal world, Mr Netanyahu, a clever populist, would emulate the late Ariel Sharon by abandoning his partys right wing and the rejectionists within his coalition in order to forge a new ruling coalition genuinely committed to the two-state option; the Knesset arithmetic would let him do so. And Mr Abbas would step down in favour of a more dynamic leader, such as Marwan Barghouti , imprisoned in an Israeli jail for murder: he helped organise a bloody uprising. That, though, might give him the clout to drag the Palestinians into making painful but game-changing concessions.理想情况是,内塔尼亚胡作为一个高明的平民主义者,应效仿已故的以色列前总理阿里尔·沙龙(Ariel Sharon),抛弃利库德党的右翼主义和政府内的反对派,以建立一个新的持两国制的统治集团,以色列议会也会持他这样做的。而阿巴斯也应主动退位,推举更有活力的领导人上台,如因谋杀罪入狱的马尔万·巴尔古提(Marwan Barghouti)。他曾帮助组织了一起血腥的起义,但这让他有一定的影响力去迫使巴勒斯坦做出一些痛苦但具有转折性的让步和妥协。Instead, both sides are embarking on a blame game. Neither will win. The Palestinians are still stateless—and their prospective state is getting smaller. The Israelis face not just the growing opprobrium of the outside world, boycotts and all, but also the prospect of missing another opportunity to ensure the survival of a country that is both democratic and Jewish.但现在,巴以两方都在相互指责,最终只会导致两败俱伤。巴勒斯坦至今仍没有主权,而且未来的希望也变得越来越渺茫。以色列也不仅要面对外界越来越多的指责和抵制,还可能再一次失去保留犹太民主国特性的机会。译者 王安庐 译文属译生译世 /201510/403194听力参考文本(文本与听力不全一致,敬请谅解):The aftermath of last nights presidential debate has left the Republican Party in all-out crisis mode.An N-Wall Street Journal poll following the release of the tape of Donald Trump making lewd comments about women shows Hillary Clintons lead over Trump is now in the double digits.House Speaker Paul Ryan today held a conference call with House Republicans. He said he cant and wont defend Trump, and that House Republicans should do whats best for them in the remaining weeks of the election.But, he will not rescind his endorsement of Trump.What does this all mean for Republicans on the down-ballot in Michigan?Michigan Radio Lansing Bureau Chief Rick Pluta joined us to talk about it.“Right now theres a real fear not that Trump will alienate moderate Republican voters … who will come out and vote for Hillary Clinton. Theyre afraid that those voters will just throw up their hands and stay home on election days and not be there for all of those down-ballot races,” he said.Listen to our conversation above for more.201610/470410

Swiss watches and the Apple Watch瑞士手表与苹果手表Its not about time这和看时间没有关系Traditional watchmakers are confident they can see off Apples new bauble传统手表制造商有信心看到苹果华而不实的新玩意儿退出舞台WHEN cheap, accurate quartz watches started pouring out ofAsiain the 1970s, many Swiss watchmakers went bust. But the survivors recovered their sangfroid and went on to prosper as crafters of stylish timepieces that proclaim the wearers taste and status better than any electronic gizmo could.当19世纪70年代,价廉精准的石英表开始在亚洲普及,许多瑞士手表制造商破产了。但是那些幸存者恢复镇静,作为时尚手工钟表生产商继续着繁荣事业,这些钟表比任何电子玩意儿都能更好的彰显佩戴者的品味与地位。Do Apples new smartwatch and devices like it portend another quartz catastrophe? Some think they might. Wrists are “prime real estate”, points out Richard Seymour, a design consultant. Many people park expensive watches there—especially men, since that is the main sort of jewellery that convention allows them. So if smartwatches catch on, they could evict the Swiss baubles.苹果新款智能手表以及其他类似产品预示着另一个石英手表的大灾难吗?有些人也许这样认为。设计顾问Richard Seymour指出:手腕是绝佳的部位。许多人佩戴名贵腕表——特别是男士,因为这是世俗允许他们佩戴的主流饰品。因此如果智能手表流行开来,它们可能将瑞士手表逐出市场。That seems to be Apples ambition. It has been poaching talent from fashion houses. Its new watches aim to be more than gadgets: some have 18-carat gold cases. Sir Jonathan Ive, Apples design chief, has reportedly boasted to colleagues that the Swiss are in trouble.这似乎就是苹果公司的野心。其从时装公司挖走人才。苹果公司的新款手表旨在“不止是腕表”:有些腕表拥有18K金表壳。据报道,苹果的首席设计师Jonathan Ive先生向同事吹嘘说瑞士手表正陷入困境。They are not trembling yet. Smartwatches are a mere “information tool” that say “nothing special” about the wearer, says Jean-Claude Biver, chairman of Hublot, a Swiss brand owned by LVMH, a big luxury group. They become obsolete as soon as the technology advances. Swiss watchmakers, on the other hand, are selling “eternity in a box.”他们还未惊慌失措。大型奢侈品集团Hublot是瑞士手表旗下品牌,其主席Jean-Claude Biver表示,智能手表仅仅是一种“信息工具”,并不能彰显佩戴者的特别。一旦科技进步,它们就将被淘汰。相反,瑞士手表制造商售卖的却是“盒子里的永恒”。Cheaper and less eternal Swiss-watch brands, from low-end ones like Swatch to mid-market ones like Tissot and Hamilton, seem most at risk. Swatch has aly tried to get into smartwatches, in an ill-fated venture with Microsoft a decade ago, and plans to try again. However, Jon Cox of Kepler Cheuvreux, a stockbroker, points out that watches costing 0 or less provide just 6% of the industrys revenues, so it could survive their loss. Since Swatch also owns several upmarket brands and makes parts for many others, just 5% of its profits are at risk from Apples watch, Mr Cox reckons.较为便宜以及不太保值的瑞士手表品牌,从低端品牌如Swatch到中端品牌如Tissot和Hamilton,似乎风险最大。十年前Swatch已携手微软试图进入智能手表领域,但这场冒险因时运不佳以失败告终,其计划再试一次。然而,Kepler Cheuvreux的一个股票经纪人Jon Cox指出,价格在500美元或500美元以下的手表,仅提供该产业的总收入的6%,因此Swatch能承受它们的损失。Cox先生认为,由于Swatch还拥有几个高端品牌,且其为其他品牌手表制造零部件,其利润中仅5%会因苹果手表的发布而存在风险。Mr Biver thinks it may even boost Swiss watchmakers by getting youngsters used to wearing something pricey on their wrists. Existing customers may wear Apples for everyday use, but slip into something more enviable for social occasions. Mr Seymour is not so sure: he thinks Apple will do its utmost to make people wear its watch all the time.Biver先生认为这甚至会让年轻人对在手腕上佩戴一些昂贵的产品习以为常,从而促进瑞士手表制造商的发展。现有客户可能会在日常生活中使用苹果手表,但是在社交场合他们就会戴一些更让人艳羡的东西。Seymour先生并不如此肯定:他认为苹果公司将会尽其最大努力使人们无时无刻都戴着苹果手表。 /201409/328458

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