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楼主:国际乐园 时间:2019年11月17日 20:04:21 点击:0 回复:0
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Science and technology科学技术Quieter traffic更安静的交通When the rubber hits the road当橡胶遇上公路Turning old tyres into new roads can help cut noise pollution把旧轮胎建成新式道路可以减少噪音污染AROUND one heart attack in 50 in rich European countries is caused by chronic exposure to loud traffic, according to the World Health Organisation.据世界卫生组织报道,在欧洲发达国家中,平均每50个人就会有一个由于持续暴露在交通噪音中而患上心脏病。The ill-effects of noise pollution in such countries are second only to those from dirty air, says the WHO. Long-term exposure can cause hormonal imbalances as well as mental-health problems.WHO还说,在这些国家,噪音污染产生的不良反应仅次于空气污染,长期暴露不仅会造成激素失调,还会引发精神问题。Roadside barriers can help dampen the racket, but they are expensive—up to 0,000 per kilometre—and they often serve as magnets for graffiti.路边声屏障可以减少喧嚣,但它们太贵了——每公里高达60万美元,而且很容易变成乱涂乱画的场所,Besides, they work less well on windy days and are impractical along city streets. Happily, there is another option.此外,它们在多风的时候效果并不好,更何况在城市街道边安装也不大现实。幸运的是,我们还有其他选择。By adding rubber “crumbs”, reclaimed from shredded tyres, to the bitumen and crushed stone used to make asphalt, engineers are designing quieter streets.在沥青和碎石里添加从轮胎碎片中回收的废胶末,再铺成柏油路,这样工程师可以设计出更加安静的街道。First used experimentally in the 1960s, this rubberised, softer asphalt cuts traffic noise by around 25%.第一条试验性道路出现在20世纪60年代,这种加入橡胶而变得更柔软的柏油路可以减少约25%的噪音,Even better, it also lasts longer than the normal sort.更棒的是它的寿命比普通路面更加持久。Not surprisingly, rubberised asphalt is catching on.参入橡胶的柏油路渐渐变得流行起来,Enough tyres are recycled in America each year to produce 20,000 lane-miles of the stuff, enough to re-pave about 0.5% of Americas roads, according to Liberty Tyre Recycling, a Pittsburgh firm that handles around a third of Americas recycled tyres.这并不奇怪,根据自由轮胎回收公司的说法,美国每年回收的轮胎足够修建2万英里的橡胶柏油路,足够重新铺设美国0.5%的公路。Rubber roads are also popular in China, Brazil, Spain and Germany.在中国、巴西、西班牙和德国,这种橡胶路同样非常流行,Their popularity could sp further, since it is now possible to make rubberised asphalt less expensively than the traditional sort.由于现在可以把橡胶柏油路的成本控制得比传统路面还低,所以这种趋势会越来越流行。That is because rubber can partially replace bitumen, the binding agent used to hold the crushed stones together in ordinary asphalt.由于橡胶会部分替代沥青,在传统柏油里面,沥青这种粘合剂的作用是把碎石裹在一起,Bitumen is derived from oil, which means its price has risen over the past decade alongside that of crude oil.而沥青源于石油,这意味着过去十年其价格随着原油价格的上涨而增加,Discarded tyres, by contrast, are cheap and are likely to get cheaper.相比之下,那些废弃的轮胎不仅便宜,In rich countries, around one tyre is thrown away per person per year.而且会变得越来越便宜。在发达国家,平均每人每年都要扔掉一个轮胎,They are piling up especially quickly in Europe, where dumping them into landfills was banned in 2006.轮胎的累积在欧洲特别迅速,因为2006年欧洲禁止把它们倒入垃圾堆。Rubberised asphalt keeps the noise down in a couple of ways.橡胶柏油能减小噪音的两个原因如下:Pores between the stones in standard asphalt must be small, because if the gaps are too big the bitumen binding cannot do its job properly.在标准柏油里,碎石之间的气孔必须很小,如果缝隙太大,沥青就不能正常约束碎石,Adding rubber thickens the bitumen.橡胶的加入可以使沥青变厚,That allows bigger pores, which help to trap and disperse sound waves.允许更大的气孔存在,这样就有助于捕获和分散声波;The rubberised bitumen itself is flexible and slightly springy, which enables it to absorb more unwanted sonic energy.而参入了橡胶的沥青本身也具有柔韧性和轻微的弹性,这可以使它吸收更多讨厌的音波能量。Shredded tyres are not the last word in exotic road toppings.轮胎碎片并不是最新式的道路添加物,A substance called PERS, or poro-elastic road surfacing, is being developed with a mix of private and public money in the European Union.欧盟依靠公共资金和私人资金开发了一种叫PERS东西,It is made from a blend of crushed rock, rubber and polyurethane, a synthetic plastic that replaces bitumen as the binding agent and allows even bigger pores in the road surface.它由碎石、橡胶和聚氨酯制成,人造塑胶聚氨酯可以代替沥青,因为这种粘合剂可以允许更大的气孔存在于路面。PERS is not cheap, costing around five times as much as rubberised asphalt.PERS并不便宜,其成本几乎是橡胶柏油的5倍,But you get what you pay for:但这完全物有所值,tests suggest it can cut road noise in half.据Luc Goubert测算,在一些特别吵闹的地方可以减少一半的噪音。In some particularly noisy areas, reckons Luc Goubert, who is co-ordinating the PERS project at the Belgian Road Research Centre in Brussels, the resulting boost to property values—and, therefore, land taxes—could help cover the cost.这个结果也推动了周边的房产价格—所以地税或许可以帮助抵消掉成本。 /201307/249188Science and technology科学技术Crowdfunding science集资科技Many a mickle makes a muckle积跬步致千里These days, anyone can be a scientific philanthropist眼下人人都是科技慈善家NECESSITY, so the proverb has it, is the mother of invention.有句谚语说得好:没有需求,就没有发明。And science is nothing if not inventive.科技失去了创新,就变得一文不值了。So, as conventional sources of money get harder to tap, some of sciences more creative minds are turning elsewhere.所以,当无法轻易获得传统的经济持时,一些有创造力的科研人员便开始寻求新的资金来源。Philanthropic sponsorship of science, particularly in the form of expensive pieces of kit such as large telescopes, or sponsorship for expeditions to far-off places, has been around for centuries.科技慈善资助已有几个世纪的历史,资助形式多为捐赠大型光学望远镜之类的昂贵仪器,或者是为偏远地区的探险提供赞助。But the internet now permits what might be thought of as microphilanthropy.不过在网络的帮助下,如今微慈善也成为可能。Through a technique called crowdfunding, in which members of the public donate small sums to projects they like the look of, the possibility of scientific philanthropy has been extended to those of more slender means.基于一种名为众基金的技术,公众可以给他们看重的项目捐赠小额资金,科技慈善事业已扩大到微薄资金来源。On October 4th, for example, Ethan Perlstein, a pharmacologist at Princeton University, launched a bid on a site called RocketHub to collect 25,000 to study the effect of drugs such as methamphetamine on the brain.例如,普林斯顿大学的药理学家伊桑?浦斯汀,10月4日就在一家名为火箭中心的网站公开招标,募集25000美元的资金用于研究甲基苯丙胺等药物对大脑疾病的疗效,He has until November 18th to raise the money.招标将截止于11月8日。Kristina Killgrove, an anthropologist at the University of West Florida, has aly raised over 12,000 on RocketHub to examine the DNA of Roman skeletons.克里斯蒂娜科尔戈薇是西佛罗里达大学的一名人类学家,她就通过火箭中心网站募集了12000美元用于自己对罗马骸骨的DNA检验。And on another crowdfunding site, Petridish, the California Academy of Sciences offered to name any new species of ant discovered during a conservation project in Madagascar after those who donate more than 5,000 to the enterprise.培养皿网是另一个融资网站,加州科学院就因为通过该网站获得了5000多美元的项目基金,他们完成了为马达加斯加保护项目中发现的蚂蚁新物种命名的工作。Although the crowdfunding of science is not raising the sorts of sums sometimes attracted by those with ideas for things like games, it has aly spawned a couple of specialised platforms of its own.尽管科技融资不再是只有类似的项目才能拿得到资金,但融资过程还是形成了自己的专业平台。Petridish is one.培养皿网就是一例。Another is called Microryza.Microyza也是一个代表网站。And academic institutions are starting to follow the lead taken by the CAS.学术机构都开始模仿加州科学院,募集资金。The University of California, San Francisco, has made a deal with a site called Indiegogo that will allow the universitys charitable status to make money donated via Indiegogo tax deductible.加利福尼亚大学旧金山分校与Indiegogo网站达成协议,提高了他们的会员慈善等级,可以使经网站募集的资金免税。It will launch the first such project later this month.这个月晚些时候将启动他们的第一个项目。Donors can expect no revenue if a crowdfunded science project is successful, of course.捐赠人肯定没想着融资的科学项目成功后他们会获得任何收入。But they can expect to be kept up to date with progress.但他们可以获悉实验的进度。Dr Perlstein has promised to upload all data from his experiments onto a website, for his sponsors to look at.浦斯汀士就承诺会把实验中的所有数据上传到网站,供捐赠人查阅。And even those who are not immortalised in the myrmicine literature, as the CAS proposed, may still get a warm glow from the feeling that they are making a contribution to the advancement of knowledge in a way which was previously open only to philanthropists with rather fatter wallets.在加州科学院的项目里,即使这些捐赠人不会因切叶蚁属文献而流芳千古,但能让他们看到自己为知识进步做出了贡献感到欣慰,因为之前,这种方式只属于那些钱包更鼓的捐赠人。 /201401/271442Finance and Economics;Age and happiness;Pay, peers and pride;财经;年龄和幸福;薪水、同事和自尊心;How older workers can find happiness;多大年纪的员工能获得幸福;Knowing that you are paid less than your peers has two effects on happiness. The well-known one is negative: a thinner pay packet harms self-esteem. The lesser-known one is called the “tunnel” effect: high incomes for peers are seen as improving your own chances of similar riches, especially if growth, inequality and mobility are high.众所周知,比同事的薪水少这一事实,对自己的幸福感会产生两种效应。大部分人知道的是负面效应:较少的薪水会伤害人的自尊心。此外还有一个较少人知道的另一个效应被称为“隧道效应”:高薪水的同事会让你有动力去争取机会拿到同样的薪水,特别是处于公司成长性、工资差异和人员流动性较高的环境。A paper co-authored by Felix FitzRoy of the University of St Andrews and presented this week at the Royal Economic Society in Cambridge separates the two effects using data from household surveys in Germany. Previous work showed that the income of others can have a small, or even positive, overall effect on peoples satisfaction in individual firms in Denmark or in very dynamic economies in transition, such as post-communist eastern Europe. But Mr FitzRoys team theorised that older workers, who largely know their lifetime incomes aly, will enjoy a much smaller tunnel effect.圣安德鲁斯大学的菲茨·罗伊斯(Felix FitzRoy)与人合著了一篇论文,通过研究对德国家庭调查获得的数据以区分这两种效应。这篇论文于这周在剑桥举办的皇家经济学会上首次亮相。先前的研究表明,在丹麦或者转型中的新兴的经济体国家(如后共产主义的东欧国家)的个体企业,其他同事的收入能使人们对所在公司的满意度产生较少甚至正面的效应。但是菲茨·罗伊斯研究团队的理论认为,对于那些已经基本上知道自己终身收入的老员工,隧道效应则要小很多。The data confirm this hypothesis. The negative effect on reported levels of happiness of being paid less than your peers is not visible for people aged under 45. In western Germany, seeing peers incomes rising actually makes young people happier (even more than a rise in their own incomes, remarkably). It is only those people over 45, when careers have “reached a stable position”, whose happiness is harmed by the success of others.调查的数据实了这个假设。对于那些45岁以下的员工,比同事的薪水少所带来的负面影响并不明显。在西德,看到同事的收入增长实际上使年青人更快乐,即使同事收入的增长比自己要快很多。只有那些处于事业稳定期的45岁以上的员工,其幸福感会因为他人的成功而受损。The prospect of 20-plus years of bitterness might make retirement seem more appealing. But the real gains in happiness from retirement go not to the outshone, but to the out-of-work. Unemployment is known to damage happiness because not working falls short of social expectations. This loss of identity cannot be compensated for by unemployment benefits or increased leisure time. A paper presented at the same conference by a team represented by Clemens Hetschko of Freie Universit?t Berlin uses the same German household data to show that the spirits of the long-term unemployed rise when they stop looking for work, go into retirement and no longer clash with social norms.与摆在面前的20多年的辛苦工作相比,退休显得更吸引人。但是退休带来的真正幸福感在于停止工作而不在于优胜。没有工作的人未能达到社会的期望,使得失业将有损幸福感。这种身份的损失不是失业补助或更多的闲暇时间能够弥补的。Freie大学的Clemens Hetschko 与其研究团队在同样的会议上也发表了一篇论文。他们通过对同样的德国家庭数据进行研究表明,当长期失业的人们停止寻找工作步入退休后,将不再与社会规范冲突,他们的精神状态有所提高。[注]Those with jobs are no happier after they retire, however, perhaps because their lives aly line up with social expectations. Indeed, retiring early from work can have nasty side-effects. Another paper, co-authored by Andreas Kuhn of the University of Zurich, investigates the effect of a change in Austrian employment-insurance rules that allowed blue-collar workers earlier retirement in some regions than others. Men retiring a year early lower their odds of surviving to age 67 by 13%. Almost a third of this higher mortality rate, which seemed to be concentrated among those who were forced into retirement by job loss, was caused by smoking and alcohol consumption. If youre in a job, even an underpaid one, hang on in there.那些有工作的人退休后并没有更快乐,可能是因为他们的生活已经和社会期望一致。实际上,过早的退休会产生令人讨厌的副作用。另一篇论文,由苏黎世大学的Andreas Kuhn与人合著,研究了奥地利的就业保障法的变更带来的效应,这一法律允许某些地区的蓝领工人可以更早退休。与其他的人相比,过早退休的人存活到67岁的几率降低了13%。更高的死亡率中大约有1/3的因素是由于吸烟和酗酒导致,集中在那些因为失业而被迫退休的人。如果你在工作中,即使薪水较低,也要坚持下去不要过早退休。A persons utility does not only depend on individualistic consumption of material goods and leisure but is also influenced by how well a person conforms to the norms and ideals of the social category she belongs to. Applying identity theory to the relationship between unemployment and life satisfaction implies that unemployed people are not only dissatisfied with their life because they have lower incomes, but also because they deviate from the norms of their social category under which they are expected to work. This explains the inability of the long-term unemployed to adapt to unemployment: they do not give up regarding employment as part of the social norm they strive to fulfill. Since they continuously deviate from this norm, the long-term unemployed get low recognition from others, often become negatively stereotyped, and experience social isolation and stigmatization, which can be interpreted as sanctions to fulfill the norm to work.一个人的效应不单依靠对物质的消费和闲暇的享用,还取决于一个人如何与社会规范和所处的社会类属相匹配的程度。失业的人的失落感,不单来自于低收入,还因为他们偏离了他们所处的社会类属的规范——应该要去工作。失业的人仍然把就业看作社会规范的一部分,这也是他们想去实现的。过久地脱离这一社会规范之外,长期失业的人被他人看轻,经常成为反面教材,饱受社会的孤立和偏见——这些可以看作没能满足这一社会规范的处罚。 /201304/235741

The asset-quality review资产质量审查Gentlemen, start your audits先生们,开始审计吧Close scrutiny of Europe’s banks may turn up unexpected shortfalls对欧洲的密切关注可能会变成意外的资金短缺Oct 5th 2013 |From the print editionTHE ink on the agreements that will hand supervision of the euro area’s biggest banks to the European Central Bank (ECB) is barely dry. Yet the ECB is aly enmeshed in squabbles with national banking supervisors over the extent of its powers and the rigour with which it will undertake its first big task, a warts-and-all review of the balance-sheets of the banks it will take charge of in a year’s time.欧元区刚刚敲定将欧元区的监管权交给欧洲最大的欧洲中央的协议。然而,欧洲央行已经卷入与国家监管机构的争吵之中,争吵围绕其权利范围以及其承担第一大任务之严格。其将会在一年时间里审查所有的资产负债表。Details over how the ECB will conduct this asset-quality review (AQR) will probably be released in the second half of October, but the outlines are aly beginning to emerge. The main aim of the review is to ensure that the ECB is not embarrassed by the revelation of holes in the balance-sheets of its new charges. Fresh in its mind is the example of the European Banking Authority (EBA), a young European regulator that lost much of its credibility after the collapse of banks that had passed its stress tests only months earlier.虽然关于欧洲央行如何进行资产质量审查的详细细节可能会在十月下半月公布,但是大体状况已经开始初现端倪了。这次审查的主要目的是确保欧洲央行新接管的这些的资产负债表的缺口不会让其尴尬。欧洲的例子还让人记忆犹新,这个年轻的欧洲监管机构由于通过其压力测试的纷纷崩溃而在几个月前失去了公信力。To avoid that danger the ECB is emphasising that the AQR is not a stress test, which would simulate the effect of various economic scenarios on banks’ balance-sheets. Instead it is doing a preliminary examination to ensure that it understands what is on banks’ books in the first place. National regulators fret that they will be embarrassed by what it finds. This has prompted some to push back hard to limit the scope of the ECB’s inquiries.为了避免上述危险,欧洲央行强调资产质量审查不是一次压力测试,模拟各种经济情况对资产负债表的影响。取而代之的是,它会做一次初步检查确保其会在第一时间了解的状况。国家监管机构担心他们会对央行的发现感到尴尬。这已经促使一些人强硬地限制了欧洲央行查询范围。Surprisingly, this resistance is not coming from countries on Europe’s periphery such as Spain (see article), which have much to gain from the imprimatur of ECB supervision. Rather it is coming from core countries such as France and, to a lesser extent, Germany, where seemingly well-capitalised banks may come out of the asset review looking thbare.令人惊讶的是,这种阻力不是来自诸如西班牙的欧洲国家,西班牙很需要欧洲央行监管的首肯。相反,这种阻力是来自法国等核心国家,还有德国的反对,只不过程度稍轻。这些国家看似资金充裕的可能会出现难看的资产审查结果。One issue is the “risk weighting” of assets, a process by which banks adjust the size of their capital buffer to account for the riskiness of their lending. Studies by both the Basel Committee, a club of central bankers and supervisors, and the EBA have found wide and unjustifiable variations in the way banks risk-weight their assets, even when asked to do so for identical hypothetical portfolios. The consequences of such variations can be significant. If the euro area’s biggest banks were forced to abandon their internal risk-weighting models and instead apply cruder standardised models, many would see their core-capital ratios decline by several percentage points (see chart). The ECB is likely to push for greater consistency in risk weighting, which could force banks in France, Germany and elsewhere to raise capital.其中一个问题是资产的风险加权,通过风险加权,可以调整资本缓冲规模冲抵其贷款风险。央行行长和监事俱乐部巴塞尔委员会和欧洲的研究发现中广泛存在各种不合理的资产风险权重方式,甚至是为了相同的假设投资组合。这些方式的后果是严重的。如果欧元区最大的被迫放弃他们内部的风险权重模型,许多会发现它们的核心资本比率下降几个百分点(见表)。欧洲央行很可能会推行更大规模统一的风险权重,会迫使法国德国以及欧洲其他地方的筹集资金。Informed observers also expect the ECB to find evidence of “regulatory forbearance” in these markets, whereby supervisors have allowed banks to fudge the level of non-performing loans on their books, restructuring loans and easing repayment terms instead of taking write-downs. Adjusting for this could also open up capital holes. A process devised by Germany and France to shore up confidence in weak banks on Europe’s periphery may end up hitting a quite unexpected target.消息灵通的观察家同时预计欧洲央行将找到在这些市场“监管纵容”的据,在这些市场,监管机构允许在资产负债表上对不良贷款程度作假,重组贷款,延长还款期,而不是采取减记。对此作出调整可能会导致资金缺口。由法国德国设计的提振欧洲国家信心的方法可能会以击中一个意想不到的目标而告终。 /201310/259548

Leaders社论精粹Ariel Sharon阿里埃勒·沙龙He may be missed也许会有人怀念他Israel needed—and still needs—a man like Ariel Sharon to bludgeon a path to peace以色列曾经需要—现在依旧需要—像阿里埃勒·沙龙那样的人去为和平开路HOW strange that a man widely reviled for most of his adult life as a warmonger, even by many of his fellow Israelis, might have been the one to bring about a lasting peace between Jews and Arabs—and a proper state for Palestine—had he survived in fair health for another five years or so as prime minister.一个人被视为好战分子,广受批评,甚至许多批评来自他的以色列同胞,但如果他能健康地作为总理多撑5年,就最有可能为犹太人和阿拉伯人带来持久和平,这是多不可思议啊。Ariel Sharon, who died on January 11th after lying in a coma for eight years following a stroke that struck him down at the height of his political powers, was a man of moral as well as physical courage.阿里埃勒·沙龙正处于政治权利巅峰时,中风突然来袭,陷入昏迷8年之后,他于1月11日去世。He was a man of vision, too—an example to the current prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.沙龙道德高尚,无所畏惧,他还富有远见卓识,是现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡之榜样。For many years Mr Sharon saw Israelas a fortress to be defended so ferociously that no Arab could hope to destroy it.在许多年里,沙龙都视以色列为堡垒,要坚决捍卫,不给阿拉伯人任何摧毁堡垒的希望。When, as prime minister, he dramatically changed tack by deciding to evacuate the Gaza Strip, evicting thousands of Jewish settlers for whom he had previously been the doughtiest champion, he faced down Israels hard right.在总理任上,沙龙的路线大幅改变,压住了以色列的强硬右翼势力,决定疏散加沙地带,让几千犹太定居者从加沙撤出,这些犹太定居者之前曾视沙龙为最坚定的领袖。It was an act of courage as well as pragmatism.这一举动既需要勇气,又要有务实精神。At the time he sought to persuade the outraged settlers and their influential lobby that he would not then proceed to wrest the West Bankfrom their grip, handing it back to the Palestinians as the basis of their state.沙龙当时试图说愤怒的定居者及其势力强大的说客团,称他不会将约旦河西岸从他们手中拿走,让巴勒斯坦人作为建国的基础。But he might well have changed his mind on this score, too.但沙龙在这一事上可能也改变了主意。The dilemma Mr Sharon had the courage to confront in 2005 is the same one that Mr Netanyahu keep on running away from.2005年沙龙有勇气去直面困境,但内塔尼亚胡却一直在逃避这种困境。If Israelis to remain a democracy, it cannot indefinitely occupy theWest Bankwhile also denying the Palestinians full political rights in a Greater Israel.如果以色列依然要以民主国家的形式存在,它就不能一直占着约旦河西岸,同时又否认巴勒斯坦人在大以色列中具有完全政治权利。Yet a Palestinian majority—and the demography is heading that way—would mean the end ofIsraelas a predominantly Jewish state.然而,如果巴勒斯坦人成为多数—在人口分布上也正逐渐如此—就意味着以色列不再是一个犹太人为主的国家。If Israel wants to remain both Jewish and a democracy, the only workable alternative is to give the Palestinians a state of their own, thereby accepting that Israel must vacate most of that hallowed land on the West Bank. Giving upGazawas the first step.如果以色列既要保持犹太性质,又要实行民主,唯一可行的方案是给巴勒斯坦人一个自己的国家,因此也就需要以色列清空多数约旦河西岸被视为神圣的土地。放弃加沙是第一步。What Mr Sharon would have done, nobody knows for certain.没人能确切知道,如果沙龙仍在,他会怎么做。Ehud Olmert, who succeeded Mr Sharon at the head of the party he founded, came tantalisingly close to clinching a deal on theWest Bank.接替沙龙成为其所创党派首脑的埃胡德·奥尔默特几乎就促成了关于约旦河西岸的协议。Looking at other comparably bloodstained conflicts, the most durable peace deals tend to be reached by seasoned warriors rather than doe-eyed pacifists.参照其它流血冲突,最持久的和平协议多由经验丰富的战士促成,而不是由天真的和平主义者。Can Bibi match Arik?内塔尼亚胡能及沙龙否?Mr Netanyahu, an artful populist serving his third stint as prime minister, is neither warrior nor pacifist.内塔尼亚胡是精明的民粹派,现在是其第三任总理任期,他既非战士,也不是和平主义者。In theory, he has accepted that only a proper Palestinian state will secureIsraels future, but he has failed to show the enthusiasm and flexibility needed to achieve it.理论上,他接受只有建立正常的巴勒斯坦国才能保以色列的未来安全这样的观点,但是他没有实现这一目标所需的热情和灵活性。The settlements keep expanding.定居点的范围还在扩大。Even now, withAmericas secretary of state, John Kerry, as mediator, the Likud party led by Mr Netanyahu has yet officially to accept the idea of a two-state solution.即使是现在,在美国国务卿约翰·克里的斡旋下,内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团也没有正式结束双国家方案。And he has other excuses.内塔尼亚胡还有其他理由。Like Mr Sharon, he is boxed in by powerful extremists in his ruling coalition; the head of one of his main partner-parties is dead against it.跟沙龙一样,他在执政联盟内有来自强势的极端主义者的压力,他其中一个主要合作政党的首脑就坚决反对两国方案。The Palestinians are weak and divided.巴勒斯坦人处弱势,而且四分五裂。Israel, in comparison with its turbulent Arab neighbours, is prosperous, stable and—in the short run, anyway—secure.以色列,与其动乱不息的阿拉伯邻居相比,则显得繁荣稳定,而且,至少是在短期,安全。So why should Mr Netanyahu bother to give in to those tiresome Palestinians—and risk being tossed out of office by an angry alliance driven by the West Bank settlers?所以,为什么内塔尼亚胡得向那些烦人的巴勒斯坦人让步?约旦河西岸定居者推波助澜之下,自己则有被怒气冲冲的盟友们赶下台的风险。The answer is that doing anything else is merely playing for time.就是,做其他任何事都只是拖延时间。The moment to strike a deal is when you possess most of the cards.促成协议的最佳时机是你手上牌最多的时候。Mr Sharon understood that. He forced his way down a path towards peace, even if it meant losing old comrades and picking up new ones on the way.沙龙就懂这一点。他强势推进通往和平的道路,即使这意味着这失去同志的持,以及要在途中争取新同志。If Mr Netanyahu wants to be mourned in the same way, he should dwell on that.如果内塔尼亚胡想被以同样的方式铭记,他就应该以此为鉴。 201401/274242

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