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襄阳看男科去那医院襄阳宜城市人民医院是三甲吗襄州医院 报价 John D. Rockefeller built a vast fortune on oil. Now his heirs are abandoning fossil fuels.约翰·D·洛克菲勒(John D. Rockefeller)凭借石油积累了大量财富。现在,他的后代却正在抛弃化石燃料。The family whose legendary wealth flowed from Standard Oil is planning to announce on Monday that its 0 million philanthropic organization, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, is joining the divestment movement that began a couple years ago on college campuses.洛克菲勒家族具有传奇色的财富来自标准石油公Standard Oil),该家族计划于周一宣布,旗下拥.6亿美元(约合53亿元人民币)的慈善组织洛克菲勒兄弟基金会(Rockefeller Brothers Fund)将加入几年前开始于大学校园的撤资运动。The announcement, timed to precede Tuesday’s opening of the ed Nations climate change summit meeting in New York City, is part of a broader and accelerating initiative.声明的发布时间被定在周二联合国气候变化峰会在纽约开幕之前。这一举动是一项规模更大而且正在加速的运动的一部分。In recent years, 180 institutions including philanthropies, religious organizations, pension funds and local governments as well as hundreds of wealthy individual investors have pledged to sell assets tied to fossil fuel companies from their portfolios and to invest in cleaner alternatives. In all, the groups have pledged to divest assets worth more than billion from portfolios, and the individuals more than billion, according to Arabella Advisors, a firm that consults with philanthropists and investors to use their resources to achieve social goals.近年来,80家机构——包括慈善机构、宗教组织、养老基金和地方政府——以及数百名富裕的个人投资者承诺要出售他们持有的与化石燃料企业相关的资产,并对更加清洁的替代能源进行投资。艾瑞贝拉咨询公Arabella Advisors)表示,这些机构承诺要撤资的金额共计超00亿美元,个人投资者则承诺撤走超过10亿美元的投资。艾瑞贝拉为慈善基金和投资者提供咨询,以利用他们的资源来达成社会目标。The people who are selling shares of energy stocks are well aware that their actions are unlikely to have an immediate impact on the companies, given their enormous market capitalizations and cash flow.那些出售能源股票的人非常清楚,他们的行为不可能对这些公司产生直接影响,因为这些公司具有很高的市值和充裕的现金流。Even so, some say they are taking action to align their assets with their environmental principles. Others want to shame companies that they believe are recklessly contributing to a warming planet. Still others say that the fight to limit climate change will lead to new regulations and disruptive new technologies that will make these companies an increasingly risky investment.即便如此,有些公司和个人也表示,他们采取行动是为了使公司的资产配置,与他们的环境原则保持一致。其他人则希望,在他们看来肆无忌惮地加剧全球变暖的那些企业,会因此感到羞愧。还有人则表示,这场遏制气候变化的斗争,将促使官方制定一些新的监管规定,并催生一些打破常规的新科技,从而提高投资这些企业的风险。Ultimately, the activist investors say, their actions, like those of the anti-apartheid divestment fights of the 1980s, could help spur international debate, while the shift of investment funds to energy alternatives could lead to solutions to the carbon puzzle.这些激进投资者表示,0世纪80年代的反种族隔离撤资斗争一样,他们的行动最终将在国际社会上引起讨论,而投资基金向替代能源的转移,也有助于解决碳排放的难题。“This is a threshold moment,said Ellen Dorsey, executive director of the Wallace Global Fund, which has coordinated the effort to recruit foundations to the cause. “This movement has gone from a small activist band quickly into the mainstream.”“这是一个跨越性的时刻,”华莱士全球基金(Wallace Global Fund)的首席执行官埃伦·多尔Ellen Dorsey)说。号召其他基金会加入这项事业的行动就是由这家基金协调开展的。“这项运动很快就从一个小规模运动变成了主流。”Not everyone will divest completely or right away, Ms. Dorsey noted, and some are divesting just from specific sectors of the fossil fuel industry, such as coal.多尔西指出,并非每个人都会完全或立即撤资,有些只是从化石燃料行业的特定领域撤资,比如煤炭。“The key thing is that they are moving along toward a common destination,she said.她说,“关键在于,他们在朝一个共同的目的前进。”Among the individual investors joining in the announcement on Monday is Mark Ruffalo, the actor. The news conference will include a taped message from Bishop Desmond Tutu, who said that because climate change has a disproportionate impact on the poor, it is “the human rights challenge of our time.”周一发布声明的个人投资者中,包括演员马克·鲁法洛(Mark Ruffalo)。新闻发布会上将播放一段大主教德斯蒙德·图图(Desmond Tutu)的视频讯息。他表示,因为气候变化会给穷人带来相当大的影响,所以这是“我们这个时代所面临的人权挑战”。Just how transparent the various funds and institutions will be about the progress of their asset sales is uncertain.各个基金和机构投资者出售资产的进度会有多大的透明度尚不得而知。At the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, there is no equivocation but there is caution, said Stephen Heintz, its president. The fund has aly eliminated investments involved in coal and tar sands entirely while increasing its investment in alternate energy sources.洛克菲勒兄弟基金会总裁斯蒂芬·海因兹(Stephen Heintz)说,该基金会不是在含糊其辞,只是较为谨慎。基金会增加对替代能源的投资的同时,已完全撤出了涉及煤炭和沥青砂的投资。Unwinding other investments in a complex portfolio from the broader realm of fossil fuels will take longer. “We’re moving soberly, but with real commitment,he said.在该基金会持有的庞杂投资组合中,将其他资金从化石燃料领域撤出,需要花更长时间。“我们的行动很慎重,但却是诚心诚意的,”他说。Steven Rockefeller, a son of Nelson A. Rockefeller and a trustee of the fund, said that he foresees financial problems ahead for companies that have stockpiled more reserves than they can burn without contributing significantly to climate damage. “We see this as having both a moral and economic dimension,he said.纳尔逊·A·洛克菲勒(Nelson A. Rockefeller)之子、该基金的受托人之一史蒂文·洛克菲Steven Rockefeller)表示,他认为那些囤积的储量超出消耗量,并且没有给气候事业做出贡献的公司,将来会面临财务困境。“我们认为,这个问题既有道德影响,也有经济影响,”他说。Activism to divest from fossil fuel companies began on college campuses, but the record of success there has been mixed.呼吁从化石燃料企业撤资的行动始于大学校园,但那里的收获情况却成败参半。The university with the biggest endowment, Harvard, has declined to divest, despite pressure from many students and outside organizations.尽管受到了许多学生和外部组织的压力,但获得捐款最多的哈佛大学(Harvard)却拒绝撤资。Drew Gilpin Faust, Harvard’s president, has issued statements that she and her colleagues do not believe that divestment is “warranted or wise,and argued that the school’s .7 billion endowment “is a resource, not an instrument to impel social or political change.”哈佛大学校长德鲁·吉尔平·福斯Drew Gilpin Faust)发表声明称,自己和同事不认为撤资是“必要或明智的”,并称哈佛27亿美元捐款“是一笔资源,而不是用来推动社会或政治变革的工具”。Stanford recently announced it would divest its holdings in the coal industry; Yale University’s investment office asked its money managers to examine how its investments affect climate change and to look into avoiding companies that do not take sensible “steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.The announcement did not satisfy students pressing for divestment.斯坦福大Stanford)前不久宣布将放弃煤炭行业的股份;耶鲁大学(Yale University)的投资办公室要求自己的基金管理人员,研究其投资对气候变化的影响情况,并考虑不要对那些采取逃避态度、没有实施合理的“温室气体减排举措”的公司进行投资。该声明未能让迫切要求撤资的学生满意。Pitzer College, however, is one of a number of schools that have promised more extensive efforts to remove fossil fuels from their endowments. Donald P. Gould, a trustee and chair of the Pitzer investment committee and president of Gould Asset Management, said that everyone involved in the decision knew that the direct and immediate effect on the companies would be minimal.然而,有许多院校已经承诺会做出更广泛的努力,从其捐赠基金中剔除化石燃料企业,匹泽学Pitzer College)就是其中之一。匹泽学院投资委员会主席兼受托人、古尔德资产管理(Gould Asset Management)总裁唐纳德·P·古尔Donald P. Gould)表示,所有参与决策的人都知道,相关企业立即受到的直接影响是非常小的。“I don’t think that anyone who favors divestment is arguing that the institutionssale of the fossil fuel company stock is going to have much impact, if any, on either the stocks or the companies themselves,he said, since the market capitalizations of the companies is immense.“我认为,赞成撤资的人不会认为这些机构出售化石燃料公司股票的作法,会对股价或是公司本身造成很大影响。可能毫无影响,”他说,因为这些公司市值巨大。Even if the movement were to depress share prices, the energy companies, which make enormous profits from their products, do not need to go to capital markets to raise money, he noted. But in the long term, he said, “divestment seeks to work indirectly on these companies by changing the conversation about the climate.”他指出,即使这一运动会压低股价,从产品中获取巨额利润的相关能源公司,也不需要去资本市场筹集资金。但他表示,从长远看,“撤资行动的目的是,希望通过影响关于气候的讨论,来间接地影响这些公司。”来 /201409/331766The Association of Southeast Asian Nations should be an economic powerhouse. Asean’s population of 625m is set to grow by 120m before 2030, adding to an abundant pool of labour that complements bounteous natural resources. Yet the 10-member region punches well below its weight: it accounts for 3 per cent of global gross domestic product but is home to 9 per cent of the world’s population. The underachievement derives in part from political and regulatory diversity that undermines regional competitiveness and inhibits inflows of investment into manufacturing and infrastructure.东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN,简称东盟)应成为一个强大的经济集团。东盟的6.25亿人口将030年之前增.2亿,不但可以扩大本就充裕的劳动力储备,而且该地区还拥有丰富的自然资源。然而,这个10国集团的表现并不尽如人意:东盟拥有世%的人口,却只占全球GDP%。这种不佳表现部分源于成员国在政治和监管方面的多样性,这削弱了区域的竞争力,抑制了对制造业和基础设施的投资。Thus the launch of the Asean Economic Community, due by the end of this year, represents a milestone. The AEC aims to accelerate integration and establish a single market and production base. Hopes for the potential on offer are accentuated by a slowdown that has depressed the region’s GDP growth rate to its lowest level since the 2008/09 financial crisis.因此,计划在今年底之前创立的东盟经济共同Asean Economic Community, AEC)具有里程碑意义。AEC旨在加快区域一体化,建立单一的市场和生产基地。对AEC能带来潜力的期待已因为经济放缓而变得更加迫切,该地区的GDP增速下降至2008/09年金融危机以来的最低水平。On paper, the AEC’s aspirations resemble the early days of the European Economic Community. A blueprint agreed in 2007 envisaged a single market and production base, which included measures to standardise trade tariffs and dismantle non-tariff barriers, plus a free flow of services and investment. It allowed for more liberal migrations of skilled labour and freer interchanges of capital.表面上看,AEC的目标类似于欧洲经济共同European Economic Community)成立之初的愿景。东007年通过的一项蓝图设想了单一的市场和生产基地,其中包括规范贸易关税、消除非关税壁垒的措施,以及务和投资的自由流动。它还允许熟练工人更自由地迁徙以及更自由的资本流通。Of these, only a generally free trade in goods has materialised. Trade in services remains hobbled by formal and informal barriers while free flows of capital and investment are far from realised. A more liberalised market for skilled labour is so far away that officials rarely bother to mention it. This paucity of progress is having an effect. Intra-Asian trade has declined over the past 18 months, having flatlined during the previous two years. Such a record detracts from expectations. Indeed, the main impediment to integration is to be found among Asean’s founding principles.这些目标中,只有商品基本自由贸易已经实现。务贸易仍受困于正式及非正式的壁垒,而资本和投资的自由流动还远未实现。对熟练工人而言,更自由的市场如此遥不可及,连官员们都很少愿意再去提及。这种缺乏进展的局面已经带来影响。在经过两年的零增长之后,过8个月,亚洲内部贸易已经出现下滑。这种表现降低了人们的期望值。实际上,东盟一体化的主要障碍存在于该组织的成立原则之中。Unlike the EU, which relies on intrusive powers to ensure policy alignment among its members, the body shows no willingness to jettison its cherished “Asean way a consensus approach to decision-making that discourages “interferencein the internal affairs of fellow members. Too often this results in a frustrating lack of traction.与依靠干预性权力确保成员间政策均等的欧EU)不同,东盟并不愿意放弃其珍视的“东盟方式Asean Way),而这种要求达成一致的决策方式阻碍了对成员国内部事务的“干预”。由此带来的结果通常是令人沮丧的前进动力不足。In addition, there is a debilitating lack of administrative capacity. The Asean secretariat, which is responsible for forwarding the group’s agendas, has a tiny budget (m in 2014) and a skeleton staff that lacks the power to enforce adherence to regional initiatives. Progress towards AEC, for example, is assessed retrospectively with a “scorecardapproach that avoids direct criticism of member states.此外,东盟还缺乏行政管理能力,这是有害的。负责推进组织议程的东盟秘书处的预算很少014年为1700万美元),秘书处的主要官员也没有让各国执行地区动议的权力。例如,用“计分卡”方式对推动AEC的进展进行回顾性评估,以避免直接批评成员国。These features, however, do not tell the whole story. In spite of Asean’s fuzzy focus on integration, other forces buffeting the region are imparting a more irresistible momentum towards reform. The region is a vital part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which ties Asean members into a programme of trade liberalisation with China, India, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. In addition, Asean states Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei are founding members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement with the US.然而,这些特征并不代表全部。尽管东盟自身对一体化态度模糊,冲击该地区的其他势力正带来一种更不可抗拒的改革动力。东盟是“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)的重要成员,该协定使东盟成员国加入了一项与中国、印度、韩囀?日本、澳大利亚及新西兰的贸易自由化计划中。此外,马来西亚、新加坡、越南及文莱四个东盟国家还是与美国达成的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership,简称TPP)的创始成员囀?It is likely that, even if Asean continues to fight shy of defining its destiny, the promises that members make beyond the region will drive inexorable progress towards integration. Therefore it makes sense to beef up its secretariat’s powers and take a more intrusive approach towards implementing the AEC.即使东盟依然怯于掌握自己的命运,很有可能的是,其成员国在区域之外所做的承诺将不可避免地推动东盟一体化取得进步。因此,有必要强化东盟秘书处的权力,并采取一种更具干预性的方式来落实AEC。来 /201512/413497襄阳市铁路医院哪个医生好

襄阳妇幼保健院看妇科好不好襄樊市同和医院在线咨询 Something is changing in the west’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. You can it in the newspapers. You can hear it from politicians. And you can see it in shifts in policy.西方与沙特阿拉伯的关系正在发生某种变化。这一点可以从报纸上读出来;从政治家们口中听出来;从政策转变中看出来。Hostile articles about the Saudis are now standard fare in the western press. On Sunday, the main editorial in The Observer denounced the UK’s relationship with Saudi Arabia as an “unedifying alliance that imperils our security Two days earlier, the B ran an article highlighting an “unprecedented wave of executionsin Saudi Arabia. A couple of months ago, Thomas Friedman, arguably the most influential columnist in the US, labelled the terrorist group, Isis, the “ideological offspringof Saudi Arabia.对沙特怀有敌意的文章如今已成为西方媒体的标配。上周日,《观察家报The Observer)的主社论公开指责英国与沙特的关系是一种“危及英国安全的不光联盟”。不久前,英国广播公B)刊发的一篇文章浓墨重地报道了沙特国内一波“前所未有的死刑潮”。几个月前,堪称美国最具影响力专栏作家的托马斯弗里德曼(Thomas Friedman),将恐怖组织“伊斯兰国ISIS)称为沙特的“意识形态产物”。Politicians are taking up similar themes. Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s vice-chancellor, has accused Saudi Arabia of funding Islamist extremism in the west and added: “We have to make it clear to the Saudis that the time of looking away is over.In the UK, Lord Ashdown, a former leader of the Liberal Democrats, has called for an investigation into the “funding of jihadismin Britain and pointed at Saudi Arabia.政治家们也开始拿类似的主题说事。德国副总理西格马尔加布里尔(Sigmar Gabriel)指责沙特为在西方活动的伊斯兰极端主义分子提供资金,并补充称:“我们必须让沙特明白,睁一只眼闭一只眼的日子已经结束。”英国自由民主党(Liberal Democrats)前党魁阿什当勋Lord Ashdown)呼吁英国对“资助圣战组织”的行为展开调查,矛头直指沙特。The sudden increase in concern about Saudi Arabia is driven, in large part, by the rise of Isis. Western policymakers know that the battle with jihadism is as much about ideology as guns. When they look for a source of the Isis worldview, they increasingly trace it back to the Wahhabi philosophy promoted by the Saudi religious establishment.对沙特突然激增的担忧很大程度上是由ISIS的崛起带来的。西方政策制定者明白,在打击“圣战主义”方面,诉诸意识形态与诉诸武力同等重要。在寻找ISIS世界观的根源时,他们越来越多地追溯到了沙特宗教机构所倡导的瓦哈比主义(Wahhabi)。Saudi influence in the west has also been weakened by other developments. The “shale revolutionin the US has made the west less dependent on Saudi oil. Meanwhile, the turmoil in the Middle East has shone a harsh light on Saudi foreign policy , with particular criticism aimed at the high level of civilian casualties caused by Saudi military intervention in Yemen, and Riyadh’s role in crushing an uprising in Bahrain in 2011.沙特在西方的影响力也遭到了其他事态的削弱。美国的“页岩革命”使西方国家减少了对沙特石油的依赖。与此同时,中东地区的动荡也使沙特的外交政策招致批评,尤其是针对沙特军事干预也门造成大量平民伤亡、以011年沙特在镇压巴林国内起义中扮演的角色。For the moment, however, all this criticism has led only to modest adjustments in western policy. For the Saudis themselves, the most alarming change has been President Barack Obama’s determination to secure a nuclear deal with Iran, facing down fierce opposition from Saudi Arabia. Beyond the Iran deal, however, there have been only small, symbolic gestures, such as Britain’s decision, driven by human-rights concerns, to pull out of the bidding for a contract to provide training for prisons in Saudi Arabia.然而,目前来看,所有这些批评仅仅使西方轻微调整了对沙特的政策。对沙特人自己而言,最令人担忧的变化是,美国总统巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)不顾沙特的激烈反对,坚决要与伊朗达成核协议。但除了伊核协议之外,其他的都只是一些小的、象征性姿态,例如,英国出于人权方面的担忧,决定退出为沙特监狱提供培训的合同竞标。Western critics of Saudi Arabia want to see the gloves come off. They accuse the governments of the UK and the US of being in thrall to Saudi money. Lord Ashdown has pointed to the influence of “rich Gulf individualsin British politics. Saudi Arabia also remains a crucial market for western arms manufacturers. Over the past 18 months the US has approved the sale of more than bn of weaponry to Saudi Arabia.批评沙特的西方人士希望看到西方对沙特动真格的。他们指责英美两国的政府受制于沙特的金元。阿什当勋爵曾指责“富裕的海湾人物”对英国政界施加了影响。此外,沙特仍是西方军火制造商的重要市场。过8个月,美国已批准向沙特出售价值40亿美元的武器装备。There are also solid reasons, that have little to do with money, for continued western co-operation with Saudi Arabia. The past five years have demonstrated that when bad governments fall in the Middle East, they are often replaced by something far worse. The most powerful internal critics of the Saudi monarchy are not liberals but hardline Islamists. The fear that Saudi Arabia could become yet another failed state haunts the west. One senior UK diplomat warns: “Get rid of the House of Saud and you will be screaming for them to come back within six months.”西方继续与沙特合作,也有与金钱无关的其他充分理由。过去五年的经验明,中东国家的坏政府倒台后,取代他们的人通常更加糟糕。沙特国内批评王室最猛烈的不是自由派,而是强硬的伊斯兰主义者。对于沙特可能变成又一个失败国家的担忧困扰着西方。一位英国高级外交官警告称:“如果推翻沙特王室,不出6个月你就会哭喊着要他们回来。”Saudi Arabia’s relationship with jihadism is also complex. It is true that Islamists in Saudi Arabia have provided ideological and sometimes financial support for jihadis around the world. But it is also true that the Saudi royal family itself has been targeted by both Isis and al-Qaeda. At the same time, intelligence provided by the Saudis has been critical in thwarting some terrorist plots in the west. As one western counter-terrorism official puts it: “The Saudis are sometimes both the source of the problem and the best antidote to it.”沙特与“圣战主义”的关系也同样复杂。没错,沙特境内的伊斯兰主义者为世界各地的圣战分子提供了意识形态和(不时的)资金持。但沙特王室自身一直是ISIS和基地组al-Qaeda)袭击的目标,这也是事实。同时,沙特提供的情报,对挫败一些针对西方的恐怖袭击阴谋一直起着至关重要的作用。正如一位西方反恐官员所说:“沙特有时既是问题的根源也是问题的解药。”Some western strategists daydream about ditching the Saudi alliance in favour of a rapprochement with Iran. If international politics were a chess game, this might look like a clever gambit.一些西方战略人士幻想着宁愿抛弃与沙特的联盟,与伊朗修好。如果国际政治是一盘象棋,这或许看起来像一步妙棋。来 /201512/416541襄樊包皮那里做手术好

襄阳到哪家医院看男科好 A group of men sit in a Kamaz truck one of those big Russian 4x4s that regularly wins the Dakar rally speeding down a highway. Some of them sense that they are going the wrong way fast but nobody dares do anything.一群人坐着一辆卡玛斯卡车(Kamaz,俄罗斯的一种大型四轮驱动卡车,经常在达喀尔拉力赛(Dakar Rally)上夺冠),在一条高速公路上急驶。车上有些人感到他们正朝着错误的方向疾驰,但谁也不敢有所动作。This graphic scenario is how the head of an oligarch-backed investment group close to the Kremlin describes the predicament in which Russia’s political and economic leadership finds itself.一家接近克里姆林宫的、寡头背景的投资集团的主管称,上述这幅图景符合俄政治与经济领导层对自身目前所处困境的看法。Since a Malaysia Airlines flight was downed in eastern Ukraine on July 17, killing all 298 people on board, things have gone very wrong, very fast for President Vladimir Putin of Russia. The belief in most western countries that a band of pro-Russian rebels shot the Boeing 777 down with a missile provided by Russia has transformed frustration at Moscow’s support for the insurgents into fury. Western media headlines are labelling the Russian leader a murderer and a pariah, and European governments are discussing new sanctions which, if implemented, could wreck the country’s economy.77日,一架马来西亚航Malaysia Airlines)客机在乌克兰东部被击落,机上298人全部遇难。对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)来说,自那时起,形势就朝着非常错误的方向急速发展。大多数西方国家相信,乌克兰的一小撮亲俄叛军使用俄方提供的导弹击落了那架波音777 (Boeing 777)客机。这种看法使得俄持乌克兰叛军引发的失望转变成了愤怒。西方媒体头条为普京贴上了杀人犯和社会弃儿的标签。欧洲国家政府正在讨论新的对俄制裁,倘若这些新制裁得以实施,可能会摧毁俄罗斯的经济。This dramatic turn of events is leading some observers to warn that Mr Putin, long viewed as a master tactician, has overplayed his hand this time. “Everyone just sits and watches the crazy things our government is doing,says Roman Lokhov, chief executive of global markets and investment banking at S, the largest independent broker on the Moscow Stock Exchange.事态的戏剧性变化促使一些观察人士告诫普京说,他这次玩得有些太大了。长期以来,普京一直被视为一位战术大师。“每个人都只是坐在那里,看着我们的政府在搞那些疯狂的事情,”S全球市场与投行业务的首席执行官罗#8226;洛霍Roman Lokhov)表示。S是莫斯科交所(Moscow Stock Exchange)最大的独立经纪商。During his 14 years in power as both president and prime minister, Mr Putin has often gambled big and mostly won. He went to war with Georgia in 2008 but less than a year later the action was all but forgotten as the US decided to “resetthe bilateral relationship. He muscled Russia back into its global power position with his involvement in the Syria crisis. With a mixture of economic incentives and threats, he worked tirelessly to strengthen Russia’s influence over former Soviet republics an endeavour that has hit a bump only now with Ukraine.普京在作为总统和总理掌权4年里经常展开豪赌,而且基本上都赌赢了008年,他发动了与格鲁吉亚的战争,但过了还不到一年,那次行动就几乎已被国际社会忘掉,美国也决定“重置”美俄双边关系。通过介入叙利亚危机,普京帮助俄罗斯强行重新跻身全球大国之列。他综合运用经济激励和威胁,不知疲倦地致力于强化俄对前苏联加盟共和国的影响力——这一努力只是最近才碰了钉子,这个钉子就是乌克兰。This year, Mr Putin appeared to have accomplished the biggest feat of all with the annexation of Crimea. Although a wave of western sanctions put further strain on Russia’s slowing economy, there is little likelihood of Moscow being forced to give the territory back to Ukraine. Mr Putin upped the ante by declaring Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine part of a wider “Russian worldthat Moscow was prepared to defend, regardless of national borders.今年,随着俄罗斯吞并克里米亚,普京似乎完成了一项最大的壮举。尽管西方的一波制裁让正在放缓的俄罗斯经济承受了更大的压力,但俄被迫把克里米亚交还给乌克兰的可能性微乎其微。普京还加大了赌注,称乌克兰东部讲俄语的人群是更广泛的“俄罗斯世界Russian world)的一部分,俄政府准备保护这一世界,不管其具体属于哪国。At home, this has been hugely successful. On the back of euphoria that Mr Putin has restored Russian pride and power, his popularity ratings have soared to close to a record 90 per cent, according to state-run VTsIOM and independent Levada, Russia’s biggest pollsters.这样做法在俄国内取得了巨大的成功。官方的全俄民意研究中心(VTsIOM)以及独立的勒瓦达中心(Levada)的数据显示,在普京恢复俄罗斯自豪感与影响力带来的狂喜的撑下,他的持率大幅上升,逼近90%这一最高纪录。The sentiment has allowed Mr Putin to divide and crush what remains of a shortlived rebellion by Moscow’s middle class against his increasingly autocratic rule in late 2011 and early 2012.这种民意使得普京能够分化并扫清一次短命反抗的残余影响—010年末012年初,莫斯科中产阶级曾站出来反抗普京专制色日渐浓厚的统治。Pavel Surikov, a German-educated interior designer who says he took part in the anti-Putin marches back then, no longer speaks to two former friends because they criticised Mr Putin’s Ukraine policy. “Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart, the US has been encroaching on Russia’s sphere of influence, and Ukraine is no exception,he says. He rejects western media reports about the downing of MH17 as lies and propaganda and accuses the west of ignoring the plight of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine. “I know Putin has done a lot of bad things, but he is right on this one,says Mr Surikov. “We are strong. And we will stand together no matter what they do to us.”帕维尔#8226;苏里科夫(Pavel Surikov)是一名在德国受过教育的室内设计师,他说自己当时参加过反普京的游行。但他现在不再理睬以前的两位朋友了,因为他们批评普京的乌克兰政策。他说:“自苏联解体以来,美国一直在蚕食俄罗斯的势力范围,在乌克兰也不例外。”他不相信西方媒体关于马航MH17航班被击落的报道,认为那是谎言和宣传攻势,并指责西方罔顾乌克兰东部讲俄语人群的困境。“我清楚普京做了很多坏事,但这件事他做对了,”苏里科夫说,“我们很强大。无论他们怎么对付我们,我们都将团结在一起。”But such beliefs might soon be put to a tough test, which observers believe could be Mr Putin’s undoing. They argue that economic decline could quickly deflate the nationalist euphoria fed by a relentless state media campaign. “You have to keep raising incomes,says the Russian investment group executive. “There’s not a lot of historic precedent for containing an isolated system except North Korea. You can’t do it, not today.”但这些信念可能很快就会面临严峻考验。观察人士认为,这次考验可能成为普京的滑铁卢。他们辩称,官方媒体无休止宣传催生的民族主义狂喜,可能很快就将被经济衰退所冲淡。“你得保住收入的增长势头,”上述那名俄罗斯投资集团的高管说,“除了朝鲜以外,历史上并没有多少先例告诉你如何掌控一套闭关锁国的体制。你做不到这一点,现在这个时代做不到。”Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister and one of Mr Putin’s most trusted economic advisers, warned the president this week against going further down the path of hostility with the west, which he said was hurting business.普京最信任的经济顾问之一、俄罗斯前财长阿列克#8226;库德Alexei Kudrin)最近告诫普京称,不要在对抗西方的道路上越走越远。他说,那样会伤害俄罗斯的商业利益。Igor Yurgens, a former Kremlin adviser close to Dmitry Medvedev, the prime minister, says there is a chance to repair things if Mr Putin acts now. “We can reset our relationship with the west. We will never be the same as Poland or the Czech Republic, but we could return to pragmatism and find reasonable terms with the west, as we have done before.”与俄罗斯总理德米特里#8226;梅德韦杰Dmitry Medvedev)关系密切的前克里姆林宫顾问伊格尔#8226;尤尔根斯(Igor Yurgens)说,如果普京现在采取行动,还有机会补救。“我们可以重置与西方的关系。我们绝不会变成波兰或捷克那样,但我们可以重回实用主义,与西方谈妥合理的条件,就像我们以前所做的那样。”Mr Putin does not like the choice with which he is confronted. When he addressed the nation on the downing of MH17 in a message recorded in the early hours of Monday, he stepped nervously from one foot to the other, his face sweaty and rigid, his eyes blinking heavily and an eyebrow twitching.普京不喜欢摆在他面前的选择。在最近录制的一段视频中,普京就MH17航班被击落一事向全国发表讲话。视频画面显示,他紧张地不停切换站立撑脚,脸上冒汗,神情僵硬,频繁眨眼,眉毛颤动。The threat is that he could lose the solid economic ground that has underpinned his hold on power for so long. Economists and executives believe that the latest US sanctions, which partly bar some Russian banks and energy companies from US capital markets, will hurt Russia’s economy. While broader punitive measures from the EU could throw it off the rails.他面临的威胁在于,可能会失去长期以来撑他掌权的坚实经济基础。经济学家和高管们认为,美国最近推出的制裁措施——在一定程度上禁止某些俄罗斯和能源企业进入美国资本市场——将对俄经济构成伤害。而欧EU)更全面的惩罚性措施,可能会使俄经济脱轨。A total of 1bn in foreign debt owed by Russian banks and companies comes due over the next 12 months, according to the central bank. “Given the relatively strong fundamentals of Russian corporates, we believe that the external funding requirements are manageable, but would be at risk if sanctions continue to increase in degree and in duration,Jacob Nell, chief Russia economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note this week.俄央行数据显示,俄罗斯和企业有总计1610亿美元的外债将在未2个月内到期。“考虑到俄罗斯企业相对强劲的基本面,我们认为当前的外部融资需求是可控的,但如果制裁程度继续加大、制裁时间继续延长,外部融资需求将面临风险,”根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席俄罗斯经济学家雅各布#8226;内尔(Jacob Nell)上周在一份研究报告中表示。VTB24, the retail arm of Russia’s second-largest lender, cut back new loans to small businesses dramatically “the first indicator of a general worsening of the situation with the economy Mikhail Zadornov, the state bank’s chairman, said on Wednesday. In the first half of the year, VTB24 gave out just 68.7bn roubles worth of new loans to small businesses, a drop of more than 20 per cent compared with the previous year.俄罗斯第二大的零售部门VTB24大幅削减了对小企业的新增贷款,这家国有的董事长米哈伊#8226;扎多尔诺Mikhail Zadornov)上周三表示,“这是经济状况整体恶化的首个迹象”。今年上半年,VTB24仅向小企业新发放了价87亿卢布的贷款,同比减少0%。Economists say the growing squeeze will lead to a further decline in aly anaemic investment. They also fear the rising pressures on the budget could lead to a smothering of consumer spending and exports which have kept the economy afloat so far. “The GDP growth forecasts range between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent for this year, but with these problems on the horizon, we could well be headed into negative territory,says the representative of an international economic organisation in Moscow.经济学家表示,日益严重的资金吃紧将导致原本已经不足的投资进一步减少。他们还担心,不断上升的预算压力可能会抑制消费出和出口,而这两者迄今为止维系了俄经济的正常运行。“今年国内生产总GDP)预期增长0.5%%,但随着这些问题的浮现,增长很可能变成负数,”一家国际经济机构驻莫斯科的代表表示 . .……The kneejerk reaction of conservatives on Mr Putin’s team is to close ranks further and clam up. This week, government officials discussed resuming production of the Ilyushin 114, a small passenger aircraft, which ended two years ago. “It is a good time to make our own instead of getting a foreign one,tweeted Dmitry Rogozin, the nationalist deputy prime minister who is in charge of the military-industrial complex.普京班子里保守派的本能反应是进一步提升凝聚力和闭关锁囀?上周,俄政府官员讨论了恢复小型客机伊尔-114 (Ilyushin 114)的生产,该机型已于两年前停产。“这是我们自主生产、停止向外国购买飞机的好机会,”持民族主义立场、主管军工联合体的俄副总理德米特里#8226;罗戈Dmitry Rogozin)在Twitter上表示。Mr Nell predicts that under such economic pressures, the Russian government will loosen its budget discipline, suspend its currency liberalisation plans and turn towards a more static, protectionist economic policy.内尔预测称,在这样的经济压力下,俄政府将放松预算纪律,暂停汇率自由化计划,转向更为静态、保护主义的经济政策。Three people with knowledge of economic policy discussions said conservatives in favour of isolationist policies were gaining the upper hand amid accusations by western governments against Mr Putin and the threat of further sanctions. “It has become a lot easier to argue along the lines of, ‘let’s close the doors, we can do just fine without themsaid one.三名了解经济政策讨论的人士称,在西方政府指责普京并威胁实施进一步制裁的背景下,倾向于孤立主义政策的保守派正占据上风。其中一人表示:“现在提出‘关上大门,没有他们我们做得也不错’这样的观点,要远比以前更容易得到认同。”Russian business, although very careful not to comment on politics, is terrified at that prospect. Many of the country’s large groups could be forced by more sanctions and an inward turn by Russia to sell overseas assets, reduce investment and rely mostly on government contracts. Smaller companies could be hit hardest in any credit crunch because they lack the political connections to soften the blow.俄罗斯企业虽然非常小心地不去谈论政治,但仍对这种前景感到恐惧。在更多制裁和俄罗斯变得更加锁国的影响下,俄罗斯许多大企业可能会被迫出售海外资产、削减投资,主要依赖政府合同过活。万一发生信贷紧缩,最受影响的可能是中小企业,因为它们缺乏能够缓解冲击的政治人脉。Some western analysts argue, however, that Washington could be mistaken in its calculation that raising the pressure on Mr Putin will make him change course.然而,一些西方分析人士辩称,华盛顿方面的盘算可能是错误的,加大对普京施压可能并不会使他改弦易辙。“Sanctions will be costly to Russia; there is no disputing that#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;But if the motivation is defence of vital national interests and survival, Russia like any state will resort to import substitution and even more radical sorts of interventions to defend itself, no matter what the cost,Clifford Gaddy and Barry Ickes wrote in a paper for the Brookings Institution in May. “History tells us that Russians can endure enormous hardship. Coping and survival are part of Russian history and the Russian national identity.”“制裁将给俄罗斯带来沉重代价,这是毋庸置疑的……但如果动机是捍卫国家关键利益和谋求生存,那么俄罗斯将像任何国家一样,不惜代价地寻求用国货来替代进口货,甚至采取更为激进的干预措施来保护自己。”克利福#8226;加迪(Clifford Gaddy)和巴#8226;伊克Barry Ickes)今年5月在为布鲁金斯学Brookings Institution)撰写的论文中写道,“历史告诉我们,俄罗斯人能够忍受巨大的苦难。应对艰难和谋求生存是俄罗斯历史和俄罗斯民族认同的一部分。”So far, Mr Putin is not showing his hand. At a national security council meeting this week, he said Russia was not facing a direct threat to its sovereignty right now a remark widely interpreted as a signal that he does not want to step up the tension in eastern Ukraine.迄今为止,普京还没有展露意图。在上周的一次国家安全委员会会议上,他称俄罗斯主权目前还未受到直接威胁,该言论被普遍解读为他无意升级乌克兰东部的紧张局势。But that will hardly be enough. With pro-Russian rebels having shot down two more Ukrainian military aircraft since the MH17 crash and no sign that Russian support has stopped, Mr Putin remains on a confrontation course.但这远远不够。MH17航班坠机后,乌克兰亲俄叛军又击落两架乌克兰军机,而且没有迹象显示俄停止了对这些叛军的持,所以说,普京仍然在走对抗的道路。And he alone will decide whether there is a way out. Nobody in Mr Putin’s inner circle has the clout to challenge him, says the Russian executive. “Have you ever tried to jump in front of a speeding Kamaz truck?”至于是否存在出路,则完全取决于普京一人。上述那名俄罗斯高管表示,普京的小圈子里没有任何人有实力对他构成挑战。“你试过跳出来挡在疾驰的卡玛斯卡车前吗?”来 /201407/316266襄阳襄城人民医院是正规的襄阳妇幼保健院中医院看效果怎么样



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