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楼主:时空生活 时间:2019年09月16日 23:13:53 点击:0 回复:0
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It’s been about one year since John Chen, CEO of BlackBerry, took the top job at the struggling phonemaker. Since then, he has embarked on a campaign to bring the company back to its roots and spark new innovations and partnerships where he feels necessary—in short, to make BlackBerry relevant to business users again.程守宗入主深陷困境的黑莓(BlackBerry)已经一年了。自从执掌CEO大权以来,他努力试图让黑莓重新回归“根基”,并且开展了一些他觉得必要的创新与合作——总之,他要让企业用户重新正视黑莓的存在。To that end, this week in San Francisco Chen took the stage to make a number of announcements, including a recently-inked agreement with smartphone maker Samsung Electronics. According to the deal, both companies will sell each other’s mobile security products. (A true sign of the times: Chen joked with the audience about the fact his wife still uses a Samsung Galaxy phone.) The company also announced an updated BlackBerry Enterprise server, which will allow customers to more easily manage BlackBerries and devices made by other manufacturers.本着这一目的,程守宗上周末在旧金山登台宣布了几项重大事务,包括与三星电子集团(Samsung Electronics)刚刚签署的一项合作。根据这项协议,三星和黑莓均将开售对方的移动安全产品。(一个可信的迹象是,程守宗还当众开起玩笑称,他妻子现在仍然在用一款三星Galaxy手机。)另外黑莓还推出了升级版黑莓企业务器(BlackBerry Enterprise),从而使用户可以更加便捷地管理黑莓产品以及其他厂家的设备。Under Chen’s direction, BlackBerry’s losses are improving, but the company is still bleeding money and there is still plenty of cause for concern about its long-term prospects. Ahead of his announcements in San Francisco, Fortune caught up with Chen to hear more about his strategy—and Kim Kardashian.在程守宗的领导下,黑莓的亏损有所改善,但并没有彻底止血,而且仍然有不少隐忧笼罩着公司的长期前景。在他去旧金山之前,《财富》(Fortune)对程守宗进行了专访,听他畅谈自己的商业战略——以及名媛金#8226;卡戴珊。Fortune: What does returning to BlackBerry’s roots mean to you today?《财富》:“回到黑莓的根基”在今天对你来说意味着什么?Chen: The overall returning to the roots is much beyond the device. The Classic [an upcoming BlackBerry device that will bring back its traditional trackpad] is an important part but it’s not the only part. Very early in my career here I talked about re-pivoting back to the enterprise. It implies not only the devices but also the enterprise using our software and server as the backbone. When BlackBerry was doing well almost everyone was running on BlackBerry enterprise server. When we lost our focus we lost quite a bit of traction and accounts. But the reason I went back to the Classic is that a tremendous number of customers want it.程守宗:从总体上说,“回到黑莓的根基”指的远远不只是硬件设备。Classic手机是一个重要的部分,但并不是唯一的部分。(这部即将推出的设备将重新搭载黑莓经典的触控板。)我在刚来黑莓的时候就谈过重返企业市场,它指的不仅是设备,还包括那些将我们的软件和务器作为运营中枢的企业。当黑莓业绩良好的时候,几乎大家都在用黑莓企业务器。后来我们失去了发展重心,随之也失去了很多吸引力和用户。但我重新推出Classic手机的原因在于,大量用户想要它。In light of that “return to roots, ” how do you view innovation at BlackBerry? What role does it play today?从“回到根基”的角度,你怎样看待黑莓的创新?目前它扮演了怎样的角色?The guiding principle of our development teams is that everybody is focused on the following pillars: security, privacy, productivity, and collaboration. We focus on all of those. For example, on BBM [BlackBerry Messenger] we just released the timed message feature—people call it the “Snapchat feature.” We allow people to retract messages, not just to recall them. The whole design center is really focused on security, privacy, productivity and collaboration. We’re not trying to compete on everything.我们研发团队的指导方针是,大家都要专注以下四大柱:安全性、隐私性、效率和协作。我们同时关注这几点。比如我们刚刚在BBM【即黑莓通讯(BlackBerry Messenger)】上推出了定时消息功能,也有人叫它“阅后即焚”功能。我们允许人们收回发出的信息,而不是简单地撤销。整个设计中心非常关注安全性、隐私性、效率和协作。我们并不打算在所有层面都要竞争一下。Winning back developers is another aspect of returning to BlackBerry’s roots. How are you feeling about status with developer ecosystem?重新赢得开发者的信赖是“回到黑莓根基”的另一个方面,你怎样看黑莓开发者生态系统的现状?There are only a handful of apps, like Facebook, that we build native. We are relying on our relationship with Amazon for the others. Everything that appears on Amazon’s app store you can run on BB10 [the latest version of BlackBerry’s operating system]. In doing so we free up our enterprise developer community to focus on developer platforms. On that front the re-pivoting is only six to nine months old since I came in. We have some good traction but still a lot of work to be done.目前黑莓平台只有Facebook等少数应用是我们构建的原生应用。我们正在依靠与亚马逊(Amazon)的关系获得其它应用。亚马逊应用商店里的所有应用都可以在BB10(黑莓最新操作系统)上直接运行。这样我们就解放了企业开发者社区,让他们专注于开发者平台。自从我来黑莓后,我们的“寻根”路只走了6到9个月。我们有一些很吸引人的东西,但还有很多工作要做。 /201411/343918WARNING: Holding a cellphone against your ear or storing it in your pocket may be hazardous to your health.  警告:将手机贴在耳边或者塞在口袋里可能有害健康。  This paraphrases a warning that cellphone manufacturers include in the small printthat is often tossed aside when a new phone is purchased. Apple, for example, doesn't want iPhones to come closer to you than 1.5 centimeters; Research In Motion, BlackBerry's manufacturer, recommends 2.5 centimeters.  在消费者购置新机后,常对手机厂商印在不起眼位置的小字警告不以为然。例如,苹果公司提醒称iPhone手机距离人体至少要有1.5厘米,黑莓手机生产商RIM公司建议最小距离为2.5厘米。  If health issues arise from cellphone use, the implications are huge. Voice calls - Americans chat on cellphones 2.26 trillion minutes annually - generate 9 billion for the wireless carriers.  如果手机使用可导致健康问题,后果将很严重。美国每年手机通话的时长共计2.26万亿分钟,这些语音通话为无线运营商带来了1090亿美元的收入。  Devra Davis, an epidemiologist who has worked for the University of Pittsburgh, has published a book about cellphone radiation, "Disconnect." The book surveys scientific research and concludes the question is not settled.  匹兹堡大学的流行病学专家德芙拉 戴维斯出版了一本有关手机辐射的书《关机》。这本书对有关科学研究进行了调查,其结论是:这个问题还没有定论。  Brain cancer is a concern that Ms. Davis examines. Over all, there has not been an increase in its incidencesince cellphones arrived. But the average masks an increase in brain cancer in the 20-to-29 age group and a drop for the older population.  脑癌是戴维斯女士研究的辐射后果之一。总体而言,自手机出现以来,脑癌发病率并未上升。但这一平均率掩盖了如下事实:脑癌在20至29岁年龄群体中的发病率增加,而在老年人群中的发病率下降。 /201012/120117What do the men and women who govern us do all day? They sit in front of their screens and gawp at Twitter, Facebook, Gmail, YouTube, Amazon, eBay, Flickr and TripAdvisor. A list released last year of the websites most visited by British MPs reveals that what they get up to at work makes them no different to the rest of the population: they cyberloaf.那些为我们当家做主的男士和女士们整天在做什么?是他们整天呆坐在屏幕前,盯着推特(Twitter)、Facebook、Gmail、YouTube、亚马逊(Amazon)、eBay、Flickr、以及TripAdvisor等网站。就在去年,有人公布了一个英国议员最常去网站的清单。该清单披露了一个事实:这些英国议员上班时所做的事和其他人没什么两样——他们也在同样网上闲逛。Even the young bankers who work such long hours that their employers have started banning them from coming to the office for the entire weekend seem to do more loafing than lending. At a recent conference I heard the heads of HR at two top investment banks complaining that data from these bankers’ computers show that less than half of their time in the office was spent on work. A study from Kansas State University backs this up: the average US worker spends 60-80 per cent of their time online at work doing things that are quite unrelated to their jobs.再看看另一个群体——年轻的家。这些家的工作时间如此之长,以至于他们的雇主已开始禁止他们在周末上班。然而即使对于他们来说,花在网上溜达的时间似乎也比花在借贷业务上的时间长。在最近的一次会议上,我曾听到两家顶级投资人力资源部门的主管抱怨说,从这些家的电脑中获得的数据表明,他们上班时只有不到一半的时间用于工作。堪萨斯州立大学(Kansas State University)的研究也持这一结论:美国员工平均有60%到80%的上班时间被用于在网上做与工作没什么关系的事。David Ryan Polgar, a US pundit and lawyer, has come up with a metaphor to describe our new affliction. He says we are getting mentally obese: we binge on junk information, with the result that our brains become so sluggish they are good for nothing except more bingeing.身为律师的美国专家戴维#8226;瑞恩#8226;波尔格(David Ryan Polgar)曾用一个比喻来形容我们所受的新式折磨。他表示,我们正患上一种心理肥胖症:对垃圾信息的疯狂摄入令我们的大脑变得如此迟钝,以至于除了继续摄入更多垃圾信息,其他什么事都做不了。The obvious answer is to go on a crash diet, reducing the amount of junk information we consume. Having tried – and failed – over the past couple of years to resist the temptation of Twitter through mere willpower, I’m in search of something stronger. Various ers and colleagues have pointed me towards the hundreds of apps that are supposed to help with the addiction, but until now I have resisted on the grounds that the answer to technology overload surely cannot be still more technology.对于这个问题,显而易见的是实行一次强力“节食计划”,减少我们对垃圾信息的消费量。过去几年,我曾试图只依靠意志力抵御推特的诱惑,结果没能成功。所以,我开始寻找更有效戒除网瘾的办法。读者和同事们向我推荐了几百种旨在帮人戒除网瘾的应用。不过,到目前为止我一直在抵制这些工具,因为我认为对于技术过载的问题,解决办法当然不能是依赖更多技术工具。Now recognising myself as mentally obese, I have decided to give them a go. The target is simple: to maximise work done in the office and minimise time spent looking at pictures on Twitter of people carrying dogs in baby slings. I don’t want to go cold turkey on cyberloafing, as tests have shown that in small quantities it perks you up. I just want to learn moderation.如今,在认识到我患上心理肥胖症之后,我决定试试这些工具。我的目标很简单:一方面尽可能提升我上班时的工作量;另一方面则是要把我在推特上观看无聊照片(比如某人用婴儿背带背小之类的照片)的时间压缩到最短。我并不想突然之间完全戒除上网闲逛的习惯,我只想学会有节制地上网。因为有测试表明,人只要上网逛一小会就能感觉精神饱满。To this end I started 2014 by downloading five apps: Workrave, Rescue Time, Nanny for Google Chrome, Focus Booster and Remember The Milk. The initial result was disappointing. The computer wouldn’t sync to my BlackBerry and I kept forgetting the login details for the different sites. Worse still, a whole new way of being unproductive opened up to me: I started obsessively checking my progress on the productivity apps.出于这个目标,2014年伊始我下载了五款应用:Workrave、Rescue Time、Nanny for Google Chrome、Focus Booster和Remember The Milk。初步实验结果令人失望。电脑无法与我的黑莓(BlackBerry)同步,我总是忘记不同网站的登陆信息。更糟糕的是,我又出现了一种全新的低效行为:我开始着魔似地查看那些增效应用,看自己取得了多大进步。Nanny for Google Chrome“Nanny for Google Chrome”The first one I tried was Nanny for Google Chrome – which does for information what the Atkins or the Dukan diet did for food, by outlawing or restricting certain websites. My own Bermuda triangle of productivity is Twitter, email and eBay, and so I told the app to allow me respectively 15, 30 and five minutes on each. Alas such limits were broken almost at once, causing a message to flash up that said in huge, shouty type: “Shouldn’t you be working? The site you are attempting to access has been blocked by Chrome Nanny.” My wrist thus slapped, I became at once a bolshie teenager. How dare my computer tell me what to do? After some searching, I found a button to disable it, which I clicked with glee. Twitter seemed more tempting than ever.我测试的第一个应用是Nanny for Google Chrome。对于信息的摄入来说,这个应用的做法就像阿特金斯减肥法(Atkins diet)和杜坎减肥法(Dukan diet)对人们摄取的食物所做得那样,它禁止或限制人们对特定网站的访问。对我来说,降低工作效率的三大敌人是推特、电子邮件和eBay,因此我把该应用设置为使用这三者的时间上限分别为15分钟、30分钟和5分钟。时间上限差不多要突破时,一条消息闪耀着蹦出来,用震耳欲聋的声音吼道:“还不工作么?您要上的网站已被Chrome Nanny封禁。”于是,我就像是挨了板子,一瞬间就变成了一个不听话的十几岁小孩。我的电脑怎么敢指使我该做什么?于是我找了半晌,总算找到一个能禁用该软件的按钮。接着,我欣然点击这个按钮。就这样,推特似乎又变得前所未有地吸引人。Workrave“Workrave”The next kind of information diet works by getting you off the screen altogether. Workrave is a bit like the 5:2 diet – which forces you to fast two days a week. It features a cute little lightbulb with a smiley face that warns: “Time for a micro-break”, followed by increasingly shrill and distracting warnings, culminating in the whole system freezing up so you have to take a break, like it or not. This is maddening, especially when it happens at the very moment you had finally stopped skiving and were getting down to some work.第二种信息节食方案的思路是让你干脆离开屏幕。Workrave的原理有点像5比2节食法(5:2 diet),它迫使你每周保两天的高效率工作。该应用的一大特性,是一个带有笑脸的可爱小灯泡,该灯泡会警告说:“休息一会吧”。接着,就是越来越刺耳、越来越扰乱人心的警告,直到将整个系统冻结。于是,不论你喜欢不喜欢,你都不得不休息一会。这种做法让人完全无法接受,而如果这种状况就出现在你刚刚停止闲逛,正要干点活儿的时候,就更加令人疯狂了。Remember The Milk“Remember The Milk”Having decided that apps which rely on stick were not my thing, I turned to those that use carrot. Remember The Milk is a glorified system of online lists, which invites you to write down everything you want to get done and set a deadline. When you have done them you tick them off, and send bragging tweets about how well you are doing.在确信“大棒”式应用不是我的菜之后,我开始试用“胡萝卜”式应用。Remember The Milk是网上各种推荐清单里备受推崇的一个系统,它会让你写下每件想做的事,并设置一个截止日期。每完成一件事就划掉一项,并发出一条夸耀自己成就的推特消息。Remember The Milk is a relatively sound concept, though not as sound as writing a list on a piece of paper – which requires no password or logging on, and the action of crossing something off a list with a pencil is much more satisfying than clicking a box on the computer. A list has the even bigger advantage that you cannot automatically shower your followers with junk tweets that say: “I completed 2,401 tasks with @rememberthemilk in 2013.”Remember The Milk的理念听上去比较合理,不过它的可行性不如一纸清单——往纸上写字不需要登录和输入密码,而且在纸上划掉一项比在电脑上点击方格能产生更大的满足感。比起该应用,纸制清单更大的优势在于,你不能自动刷屏、让粉丝们看到“2013年我用@rememberthemilk完成了2401项任务”之类垃圾推特消息。Rescue Time“Rescue Time”More promising is Rescue Time, which is the Weight Watchers of information diets. It is a data-gathering system with targets, which monitors everything you do on the computer and displays the results on a pretty dashboard. A “productivity pulse” records how hard you work at different times during the day, and how well you are doing compared with your targets and with previous days’ performance. Thus I discover that I am unproductive in the early afternoon – which I knew anyway – and that today I did better than yesterday, which I also knew aly. The app encourages you to spend too long poring over the data, which is not terribly productive. Also, the data show if I am emailing, but do not know whether I am doing productive emailing or gossiping with a friend.相比之下更有戏的应用是Rescue Time,该应用是慧俪轻体(Weight Watchers)节食计划的信息版。该应用是一个设立了目标的数据收集系统,它会监控你在电脑上做的所有事,并把结果显示在一个漂亮的面板上。在一个名为“效率脉搏(prudctivity pulse)”的项目下,记录着你在一天不同时段工作的努力程度,把它与你的目标以及你头一天的表现相比较,并记录下比较的结果。就这样,我发现我在下午早些时候效率很低——不过这一点我已经知道了。我还了解到我今天比昨天表现好——这一点我同样已经知道了。这个应用会鼓励你花大量时间仔细审视统计数据,这不利于提高效率。此外,这些数据能显示出我是否在发送电子邮件,却无法判断我是在发送与工作有关的电子邮件,还是在与朋友闲聊。Focus Booster“Focus Booster”Having rejected four diets, I have at last found one that works for me. Focus Booster is beautifully simple and involves neither stick nor carrot.在拒绝了以上四种“节食计划”之后,我最终找到了一个适合我的应用。Focus Booster是一个非常简单的应用,它与大棒和胡萝卜都不沾边儿。It is a little timer that sits at the top of the screen and runs for 25 minutes, after which you can take a five minute break. You press start, and a line slowly advances across the screen reminding you that during that time you should be focusing. Even I can concentrate for 25 minutes, and for some reason I cannot explain I have not cheated once. Strange though it seems, my cyber skiving problem appears to be miraculously solved.这个应用会在屏幕顶端显示一个小计时器,它每走动25分钟之后,都你可以休息5分钟。当你点击开始按钮之后,屏幕上会缓慢飘过一句话,提醒你在这段时间内应该集中注意力。有了这个应用,连我这样的人都能在25分钟里集中注意力,而且出于某种无法解释的理由,我一次也没有作弊过。尽管该应用看起来似乎有点奇怪,我上网闲逛的问题确实奇迹般地得到了解决。However, it is early days, and miracle diets tend not to work for long; in time I may slip backwards and start gaining mental flab again. Mr Polgar warns that curing mental obesity is tougher than physical obesity because you cannot tell how you are doing by looking in the mirror.不过,现在还只是开头,那种神效节食计划往往都不能长久有效。随着时间的推移,我可能会重蹈覆辙,再次出现心理“赘肉”。波尔格警告说,治疗心理肥胖症比治疗生理肥胖症更难,因为你无法通过照镜子判断自己做得如何。Yet he says technology will soon make this easier. Various wearable products – including a headband called Melon – are about to come to market that measure brain waves and display the data on your screen, telling you when your brain has got so torpid from excessive YouTubing that action is needed.但他表示,不久以后,技术进步将令这一过程变得更容易。多种即将上市的可穿戴产品(其中包括一种名为Melon的头部饰带)能测量人的脑电波,并在屏幕上显示相关数据。当你因为看多了YoutTube网站视频而头脑迟钝时,这些产品会提醒你需要采取行动了。Possibly that will make a difference. Yet I suspect a better answer lies not with technology but with people.也许这类设备能起到明显效果。不过,我怀疑这个问题更好的不在于技术,而在于人。A highly efficient young acquaintance tells me that neither apps nor alarms on her phone are powerful enough to make her stop work at 6.30pm.一位和我相熟的高效率年轻人告诉我,不论是手机上的应用还是闹钟,都不足以让她在下午6点半停下手头工作。The only thing that succeeds is a call from the woman she uses as her occasional personal assistant. It does not matter that she has paid the woman to phone her; it is the sound of a human voice that makes the difference.唯一能做到这一点的,是偶尔当她私人助理的一位女士给她打来的电话。这位女士给她打电话是因为收了她的钱,不过这一点并不重要。真正起作用的,是这样真人发出的声音。Equally, when I told a friend that Focus Booster was changing my life, she looked unmoved. With a boss who was forever looking over her shoulder, the need for an app to keep her mentally fit was zero.同样,当我告诉一位朋友Focus Booster正在改变我的生活时,她对此无动于衷。这位朋友成天在老板眼皮底下活动,她完全没必要借助某款应用来维持良好的心理状态。 /201403/280866Many years ago it became obvious to some of us that online retail would continue to grow at a much faster pace than brick and mortar stores. This appeared to be less obvious to traditional retailers until more recently. In 2001, I suggested to some colleagues that Wal-Mart WMT 0.29% should acquire Amazon to gain an edge in online retail (Amazon stock was about a share at the time). This idea was scoffed at. I bought Amazon AMZN 0.07% stock but, clearly, didn’t maximize my execution as I sold it within 18 months for 3 times the return (it’s now 7). I’m guessing there were also some prescient investment bankers who received a similar response after suggesting that Wal-Mart buy Amazon. Who knows what the world would be like today had that occurred, as Amazon could easily have been derailed under Wal-Mart management.多年前,一些有识之士就确信,电商的增长速度将比实体店快得多。在传统零售商看来,这一点并没有那么显而易见——直至最近。2001年,我曾对一些同事表示,沃尔玛公司(Wal-Mart)应该收购亚马逊公司(Amazon),以获得在线零售的优势(当时亚马逊的股价约为5美元)。但这个提法却遭到了嘲笑。我当时买了亚马逊的股票,但很显然并没有赚到最大回报,因为不到18个月我就以3倍价格卖掉了(现在股价是317美元)。我想,当时有些富有预见的投资家在提出沃尔玛应该收购亚马逊这样的建议后,也受到了类似嘲讽。如果当时这个建议成真,就不知道今天的世界会是什么模样,因为沃尔玛治下的亚马逊是很容易脱轨的。Now, traditional retailers are under extraordinary pressure as online has matured and is expected to exceed 0 billion in U.S. sales in 2014. As online retail has claimed a larger and larger share of the overall retail business, it has sucked the air out of brick and mortar stores, and offline growth has come to a virtual standstill. With this emergence, many traditional players have finally seen the light. Wal-Mart has announced it will be increasing its online investments by a substantial amount in an effort to try to close the gap against Amazon. There has been much press about the acceleration in Wal-Mart’s online sales, and as a result, there are some who will mistakenly look at the relative growth numbers of Amazon vs. Wal-Mart’s online store and start to believe Wal-Mart is closing the gap. This could not be further from the truth as it is deceptive to compare larger numbers to smaller ones.而如今,羽翼丰满的电商正在让传统零售商承受巨大压力。2014年,美国的在线零售额有望超过3000亿美元。随着电商在零售业所占的份额越来越大,它已抢走了实体店的人气,线下增长实际上已停滞不前。在这种情势下,很多传统零售商终于有点开窍了。沃尔玛日前宣布该公司将大幅增加在线投资,以努力缩小与亚马逊的差距。有不少媒体报道称,沃尔玛的在线销售额正在快速增长。结果,有些人就会误读亚马逊与沃尔玛网店的相对增速,并开始相信沃尔玛正在缩小差距。但这实际上与事实相去甚远,因为单纯将大数字与较小数字相比是有一定欺骗性的。One reason to believe that Wal-Mart is catching up is because in the current fiscal year, the retailer is expected to grow online sales by 30% while is Amazon “only” expected to post a 20% gain, according to consensus Wall Street estimates. There are four problems with focusing on this number:相信沃尔玛正迎头赶上的一大理由是,据华尔街的一致估算,沃尔玛本财年网店销售额预计增长30%,而亚马逊则“仅”增长20%。光看这一数字存在如下四大问题:1. A portion of Wal-Mart’s growth is deceptive because it partly consists of shifting sales away from its physical stores to its online store.1.沃尔玛的增长额中有一部分颇具欺骗性,因为它部分是由其实体店转移到网店的销售额构成的。2. Wal-Mart’s growth comes off of a much smaller number. In the chart below we look at the actual dollar growth of Amazon and Wal-Mart last year. While Wal-Mart is expected to increase online sales by a very respectable billion, Amazon’s gain of .5 billion is nearly 5 times Wal-Mart’s dollar gain, and the gain alone will exceed Wal-Mart’s total online sales.2.沃尔玛的增速基于一个小得多的数字。下图显示的是亚马逊和沃尔玛去年销售收入的实际增长额。尽管沃尔玛有望增长30亿美元(这已令人肃然起敬了),但亚马逊145亿美元的增长额是沃尔玛的近5倍,仅这一数字就远超沃尔玛的整体在线销售额。3. The shift of overall retail toward online from physical stores has pressured Wal-Mart’s growth in its brick and mortar operations. Last year, Wal-Mart’s overall US revenue growth, including online sales, was 1.6% with same store sales actually declining slightly.3.零售业整体从实体店向网上转移对沃尔玛实体店的经营构成了极大压力。去年沃尔玛在美国的总销售额增长率是1.6%,而同店销售额实际上是有所下降的。4. Amazon sales are recognized on a net basis. Since an increasing proportion of the sales are net dollars (at very high margins) received for selling other merchants products, the amount of sales that it controls far exceeds its reported revenue. They also report what amount of their services revenue is from the combination of Amazon Web Services credit card and advertising. If we assume that the remainder is their share of third-party merchant revenue (also known as Amazon Marketplace) (which is reported on a net basis) then we are able to calculate gross third-party merchant revenue by year. The conversion of that revenue to products sold by third-party merchants is a matter of projecting what Amazon’s average referral fee is for the marketplace. If we assume that Amazon receives 15%, on average, of total marketplace sales then we are able to calculate the total of all product revenue generated by Amazon. In 2013, this would be 5 billion rather than the billion reported by them as total revenue. And this total would be up 28% rather than the reported growth of 22% for the company.4.亚马逊的销售额是按照净值确认的。由于这些销售额中日益增长的部分为销售其他商家产品获得的净收入(利润极高),因此该公司实际掌控的销售额远超其所报收入。亚马逊还披露了该公司从亚马逊网络务(Amazon Web Services)信用卡和广告中获取的务收入。如果我们假定剩余销售额是亚马逊从第三方商家——也被称为亚马逊市场(Amazon Marketplace)——收入中获得的分成(也是按净值确认),那就可以计算出第三方商家每年的总收入。将这部分收入换算为第三方商家销售的商品,就可算出亚马逊从这个市场中所获的平均推介费。假定亚马逊收取的平均推介费为该市场总销售额的15%,那就可以算出亚马逊催生的所有产品销售总收入。2013年,这个数字就是1250亿美元,而不是该公司自己报告的740亿美元总收入。这一总数还意味着公司的销售额增长率是28%,而不是公司报称的22%。Amazon has been secretive about its third-party retailer business but does report the breakout of total services revenue from direct product revenue.亚马逊一直对其第三方零售业务讳莫如深,但却报告称,从直接产品收入中获取的总务收入大幅增长。Given the fact that Amazon is adding sales (in dollars) at 5 times the rate of Wal-Mart online, the question is whether it has enough inherent advantages to continue to significantly outpace Wal-Mart. The answer is yes. The obvious reasons include: a superior online brand, a multiple of customers that are regulars, more knowledge of how to use data, etc .. While these are not easy to replicate, if at all, an even more important issue is whether Wal-Mart’s distribution network could rival Amazon’s?既然亚马逊销售额(以美元计)增长速度是沃尔玛电商的五倍,问题就在于它是否有足够的内在优势继续大幅领先沃尔玛。是毫无疑问的。显而易见的理由有:卓越的电商品牌,大量的回头客,更精通数据应用,等等。尽管这些因素都很难复制,但更重要的问题是,沃尔玛的销售网络是否能胜过亚马逊的呢?Amazon currently has 125 active warehouses that serve end-customers around the world while Wal-Mart only has a handful. This may seem surprising for the world’s largest retailer but keep in mind that a distribution center for resupplying stores with inventory is a completely different animal than a warehouse for shipping directly to end customers. Recently, Wal-Mart has announced plans to build a 1.2 million square-foot warehouse in Indiana dedicated to e-commerce. Wal-Mart currently uses its 4,200 existing retail stores as a nexus for shipping to end customers. Approximately 20% of online orders are now shipped from a store. This strategy is likely much less efficient and could prove quite costly relative to Amazon warehouse that have been optimized solely for online orders.目前亚马逊有125个在用库房为全球终端用户务,而沃尔玛却只有不多的几个。这似乎有点让人吃惊,因为沃尔玛毕竟是全球最大的零售商。但要知道,为实体店补充存货所用的分销中心,和直接运往终端用户所用的库房是完全不同的两种东西。最近沃尔玛宣布,该公司计划在印第安纳州修建120万平方英尺,专供电子商务使用的库房。沃尔玛目前将其现有的4200家零售店作为向终端用户发货的枢纽。约有20%的在线订单是从这些店发货的。相对亚马逊的库房而言,这种战略的效率可能要低得多,而且成本可能要高得多。I’ve chosen to compare Amazon to Walmart, the retailer with the greatest capacity to compete with them. Others will be even harder pressed to hold off online retailers.本文我选了亚马逊与沃尔玛进行对比,沃尔玛毕竟是最有实力和电商竞争的零售商。其他零售商当然更难抵御电商的攻势。 /201410/338834

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