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时间:2019年09月20日 05:39:37

In Dalian, a northern Chinese port city on the Yellow Sea, the hottest architectural trend is straight out of 19th-century Paris.在位于黄海之滨的中国北方港口城市大连,当前最流行的建筑风格直接脱胎于19世纪的巴黎。Dalian is going through a period romance with Western architecture, driving a Beaux-Arts boom in new residential buildings. Over the past few months, several American architecture firms known for their neoclassical designs have started construction on a variety of projects: from luxury apartments in mixed-use developments to expansive single-family villas. Their wealthy Chinese clients want homes in authentic-looking Beaux-Arts style: 19th-century and early 20th-century Paris-influenced design that features ornate details on large facades. They also are demanding interior designs that are sensitive to their own traditions.西方建筑风格目前在大连备受追捧,新建住宅项目掀起了一股学院派风格(Beaux-Arts)热潮。在过去几个月里,几家以新古典风格设计见长的美国建筑公司着手展开了一系列项目,其中既有综合开发项目内的豪华公寓,也有面积庞大的独栋别墅。富有的中国客户青睐造型地道的学院派风格:这种设计受19世纪和20世纪初巴黎的建筑风格影响,突出大立面上华丽的装饰细节。这些客户还要求室内设计顾及中国传统。Dalian, a city with a population of about 5.9 million, has a culturally blended past. Originally under the Qing dynasty, China#39;s last imperial rule, Dalian fell under British, Russian and Japanese rule at different times over the late 19th and early 20th centuries, resulting in a city comprised of a variety of buildings. Western classical architecture denotes sophistication for some Chinese home buyers, developers say.约有590万人口的大连过去曾是一个多元文化交融的城市。从19世纪末到20世纪初,原属清王朝(中国末代王朝)管辖的大连先后经历了英国、俄罗斯和日本的殖民统治,这一段历史赋予了大连风格各异的建筑。开发商表示,在一些中国购房者眼中,西方古典建筑意味着高雅。Local developers have sought out American architects as a way to guarantee authenticity. #39;There#39;s a lot of neoclassical in China, but it#39;s done by architects who just take an image and design from that,#39; says James Sun, vice president of Dalian Yifang Group, which is developing a villa community in Wolong Bay near Dalian. #39;It would be like asking an American or European to design a Chinese temple.#39;当地开发商通过聘用美国建筑师来确保建筑风格的纯正地道。大连一方集团(Dalian Yifang Group)副总裁孙舰表示:“中国新古典主义风格建筑很多,但它们都是建筑师照葫芦画瓢设计出来的。这就像叫美国人或欧洲人来设计中国寺庙一样。”一方集团目前正在大连附近的卧龙湾开发一个别墅区。Robert A.M. Stern Architects of New York, known for luxury buildings such as Manhattan#39;s 15 Central Park West, is designing Dalian AVIC International Square, a mixed-use development in neoclassical style. It will cover four city blocks with a total of 1,600 homes. The first phase, set to be completed this year, will include apartments with one, two and three bedrooms, from as small as 323 square feet to 1,830 square feet. Prices will range from 700,000 yuan, or 4,000, to 4 million yuan, or 2,000.以设计曼哈顿中央公园西15号(15 Central Park West)等豪华建筑而著称的纽约罗伯特#12539;斯特恩建筑师事务所(Robert A.M. Stern Architects)正在设计大连中航国际广场(Dalian AVIC International Square),这是一个新古典风格的综合开发项目。该项目将覆盖四个街区,共包括1,600套住宅。一期工程定于今年完工,将推出一卧、两卧和三卧公寓,面积从323平方英尺(约合30平方米)到1,830平方英尺(约合170平方米)不等,价格将在人民币70万元至400万元之间。Peter Pennoyer, a New York City-based architect, is creating duplexes and townhouses for the Xiao Yao (pronounced She-ow yow) Bay residential community of 900 homes. The complex, which also will offer a clubhouse and other amenities, is about 30 minutes outside of Dalian. The first phase--60 homes--will begin selling in May, with prices starting at about 2,000. Made of concrete with limestone and brick veneers, the three-level, 3,000-square-foot homes will include a garage, an entertainment room, maid#39;s quarters, living rooms, two kitchens and three bedrooms.纽约建筑师彼得#12539;彭诺耶(Peter Pennoyer)正在为小窑湾一个有900套住宅的小区设计复式住宅和联排别墅。这个距大连约30分钟车程的小区还将配备会所和其他配套设施。一期项目(包括60套住宅)从5月份开始售房,起价约为782,000美元(约合人民币488万元)起。这些面积3,000平方英尺(约合279平方米)的三层混凝土住宅有石灰石和砖镶面,带一个车库和一间活动室、数间保姆房和起居室以及两个厨房和三个卧室。On a smaller scale, San Francisco-based architect Andrew Skurman is designing two, 15,000-square-foot homes, one in the Georgian style and one French Classical, each with stone cladding, five to six bedrooms and bathrooms, a wine cellar, an exercise room and an indoor pool. The homes, which haven#39;t been priced and will be sold upon completion, will be located in the St. America development of about a dozen custom homes that overlook Dalian#39;s rocky coastline.还有一些规模比较小的项目。旧金山建筑师安德鲁#12539;斯库尔曼(Andrew Skurman)正在设计两座面积15,000平方英尺(约合1,394平方米)的住宅,一座是乔治亚风格(Georgian),另一座为法式古典风格(French Classical),每座房子都带有石材覆层,有五到六个卧室和卫生间,一个酒窖,一间健身房和一个室内游泳池。这两座房子位于一个名为St. America的开发项目内,目前尚未定价,将在建成后出售。St. America有十几幢为客户量身打造的住宅,可俯瞰大连峭石嶙峋的海岸线风光。On the southwest edge of the city, Aric Lasher of HBRA Architects in Chicago, is designing a community called French 1710. The first phase will have 37 connected townhouses and four single-family homes, ranging from 4,800 square feet to 6,900 square feet. Two future phases are planned, for a total of 265 homes.芝加哥建筑事务所HBRA Architects的阿里克#12539;拉舍(Aric Lasher)正在大连西南边设计一个名为French 1710的小区。第一期工程将包括37幢联排别墅和四幢独栋别墅,面积在4,800平方英尺(约合446平方米)到6,900平方英尺(约合641平方米)之间。未来还有两期工程,总共计划建265套住宅。To make the designs more historically accurate, Mr. Lasher drew inspiration from historic 17th- and 18th-century French buildings, giving the homes for French 1710 carved stone details such as niches, balconies, and keystones, along with slate roofs. The first phase is set to be completed in 2015. Each will have an estimated sales price of 3,000 to .3 million.为使设计的历史细节更精确,拉舍从17世纪和18世纪的法国历史建筑中吸取灵感,在French 1710的住宅中运用了壁龛、阳台、拱心石和石板屋顶等石雕细节。一期工程定于2015年完工。估计每幢住宅售价在653,000美元(约合人民币407万元)至130万美元(约合人民币810万元)之间。Mr. Lasher says some early design sketches he saw from the client were #39;extremely unregulated and unintentionally eclectic#39;--a problem that had to be addressed, as they lacked the proper composition and proportion for authentic style.拉舍表示,他在客户那儿看到的一些设计初稿“毫无章法,而且无意中弄成了大杂烩”――这是个必须要解决的问题,因为它们的构图和比例不当,与正宗学院派风格不符。The luxury market in Dalian has been heating up, with growth of the local economy and urbanization driving demand. It now makes up about 30% of the residential market. On average, Dalian#39;s residential home prices climbed 8% in 2013 to 6 per square foot, according to DTZ, an international property consultancy. That figure is nearly double what it was in 2009.由于当地经济发展和城市化拉动了需求,大连的豪宅市场正在升温。豪华住宅目前在大连住宅市场中所占比例达到30%左右。跨国房地产咨询公司戴德梁行(DTZ)的数据显示,2013年大连住宅价格平均上涨了8%,达到每平方英尺176美元(约合每平方米人民币1,1820元),接近2009年的两倍。Also driving demand for high-end properties is the fact that about 30,400 of China#39;s millionaires live in Liaoning province, in which Dalian is a major city, according to the Hurun Research Institute, which tracks China#39;s wealthy individuals.追踪中国富有人群的研究机构胡润研究院(Hurun Research Institute)的数据显示,中国目前有约30,400名富豪居住在辽宁省(大连是辽宁省的一个主要城市),这也是推动大连高端房地产市场需求的一项因素。For luxury buyers, low-rise dwellings remind them of traditional neighborhoods where the modern middle class no longer wants to live. Beaux-Arts architecture is a good fit for larger buildings.低层住宅会让豪宅买家联想到传统社区(现代中产阶级已不想居住在这些社区)。而比较大的住宅很适合采用学院派建筑风格。The local appetite for Beaux-Arts architecture #39;may be even exaggerated because they were starved of it#39; in the Cultural Revolution and to the end of the 20th century, says Paul Whalen, one of the architects of Robert A.M. Stern#39;s project.罗伯特#12539;斯特恩项目的建筑师之一保罗#12539;惠伦(Paul Whalen)表示,在文化大革命期间和20世纪末,大连的学院派建筑难得一见,“这可能放大了当地人对这种建筑的偏好”。The lack of land in Dalian, as in most of China, is also an issue. Even pricey homes are often in high-density areas, proving challenging for design.和中国大部分地区一样,大连也面临土地稀缺问题。即使是价格高昂的住宅通常也是建在人口高密度区域,从而为建筑设计带来了挑战。Cultural differences add to the challenges. Many Chinese prefer living rooms and master bedrooms to face south because they are considered the most important rooms and should get the best sun during the winter. Bedroom windows have to be strategically placed, as Chinese buyers who adhere to the feng shui sense of balance don#39;t like beds to either face or be placed against windows. Also, the end of each hallway must have a focal point for, say, a piece of artwork or a fountain.文化的差异令挑战进一步加剧。许多中国人喜欢让起居室和主卧朝南,因为中国人认为它们是最重要的居室,冬季应该有最好的光照。卧室窗户的位置很有讲究,因为讲风水的中国买家不喜欢床对着窗户或者紧靠窗户。此外,每个门厅的尽头必须要有一个放艺术品或设置喷泉的焦点位置。All of the architects had to design two kitchens for each home: a Western kitchen with sleek countertops and stovetops for light cooking and entertaining, and a #39;hot#39; or Chinese kitchen, for deep-frying and butchering meat.所有建筑师都必须为住宅设计两个厨房:一个是带有光滑台面和灶面的西式厨房,可供烹制清淡的菜肴和待客,另外还有一间“热菜”厨房,也就是中式厨房,用于煎炸烹炒和斩切肉类。In most of the projects, local architects take over once the initial designs are completed because structural and mechanical building standards vary. Some plans can be mis or details can be literally lost in translation. #39;We work through an interpreter,#39; Mr. Skurman of San Francisco says, #39;so I never have had a real conversation with the principal of the development company.#39;多数项目都是最初的设计一完成就由本地建筑师接手,因为中国的建筑结构和机械标准与西方不同。一些方案可能会被误读,细节也会在翻译中遗漏。旧金山的建筑师斯库尔曼说:“我们是通过一名口译来做项目的,我从来没有和开发公司的负责人真正交谈过。”Still, the Dalian projects are an architect#39;s dream: Budgets are malleable and developers want the best in materials. The local developers also are open to suggestions and see their projects as an investment in bringing the country into the 21st century. Their goals, Mr. Pennoyer says, go beyond #39;simply building and turning a profit.#39;不过,大连的项目仍然是建筑师的梦想之选:预算可以扩大,开发商想用最好的材料。当地开发商也乐于听取建议,并将他们的项目视为引领中国走进21世纪的投资。彭诺耶说,“在建房和赚钱”之外,他们还有更高远的目标。 /201405/300381

The winter vacation is coming, but what should be a pleasant trip home for students can be a challenging journey - they need to buy plane, coach or train tickets during chunyun period, the 40-day travel rush around Spring Festival.尽管寒假近在眼前,但对于学生来说,本应舒舒的返乡途却并非一帆风顺。他们需要在长达40天的春运期间买到回家的飞机票、汽车票或火车票。In order to make the journey easier, 21st Century has compiled the following tips and advice on how to book tickets.为了让你轻松踏上返乡路,《二十一世纪英文报》特别收集了一些订票技巧和建议。Train tickets火车票According to China Railway, more than 257.8 million passengers are expected to travel by rail during this year’s chunyun. Most of them are college students on their winter vacation and migrant workers returning home for the Chinese New Year celebrations. But students have a huge advantage in this competition to get home because they can book train tickets long before workers do.铁道部称今年春运期间乘客将超2.578亿人次,“春运大军”中大多数都是放寒假的大学生以及回家过年的外来农民工。不过学生在这场订票大战中占有绝对优势,因为他们可以比务工人员提前订票。Plane tickets飞机票Apart from the train, students can also go home by air. There are some cheap flight tickets available for them. China Southern Airlines, for example, offers a special discount for full-time students. As long as they register online and provide a valid student card, they can buy flight tickets that are up to 55 percent cheaper than the original price. Since discount flight tickets can be as cheap as train tickets, the airline company recommends students book at least 20 days before the travel date.除了火车,学生还可以选择乘飞机回家。如今各大航空公司也纷纷推出相对便宜的学生票。例如中国南方航空就为全日制学生提供了特惠折扣。只需在网上注册一下,出示有效学生便可以买到最高4.5折的机票。因为这些打折机票和火车票一样便宜,所以航空公司建议学生至少应提前20天订票。Tips on booking订票小窍门1. Book tickets for a trip that’s longer than the one you are actually on.1.“曲线救国”:如果你是中短途的旅客,可以尝试购买途经你家乡的长途车票。2. Divide your trip into two parts. For example, if tickets between Hohhot and Yinchuan are sold out, book tickets from Hohhot to Wuyuan and then from Wuyuan to Yinchuan.2. 分段购票。举个例子,如果呼和浩特到银川的车票已售完,那么你就可以先买从呼和浩特到婺源的票,再订一张从婺源到银川的车票。3. Book a connection ticket if non-stop tickets are not available. To get a student discount, tell the staff that they are joint trip tickets.3. 如果直达列车票售罄了,那就改买联程车票吧。告诉售票员,你是分段购买的全程票,这样才能享受到学生优惠。4. Seize the last opportunity. There may be some leftover or returned tickets available a few days before the departure date. Check online at 12 pm (noon), 1 pm, and from 6-8 pm.4. “最后一搏”。在发车前几天可能还会有余票或是退票。中午12点、下午1点以及晚上6—8点这三个时段,记得上网查询余票信息。 /201401/272158

In his farewell speech capping a historic trip to Kenya and Ethiopia, U.S. President Barack Obama hailed Africa#39;s extraordinary progress, while noting that such progress can only be sustained through continued development and democracy for all.美国总统奥巴马在结束非洲之行前的告别讲话中赞扬非洲取得的非凡成就,但他同时指出,只有通过继续发展和让所有的人享有民主,这种进展才能够持续下去。While not naming China, Mr. Obama emphasized what sets the ed States apart in its investment in Africa. “Economic relationships cannot simply be about other countries building infrastructure with foreign labor or extracting Africa’s natural resources. Real economic partnerships have to be a good deal for Africa—they have to create jobs and capacity for Africans. That’s the kind of partnership America offers,” he said.奥巴马没有点名中国,但强调了美国与其他投资非洲国家之间的不同。他说,经济关系不仅仅是其他国家用外国工人在非洲修建基础设施或开采非洲的自然资源。真正的经济伙伴应当对非洲有利,为非洲人创造就业机会和能力。这就是美国给予的伙伴关系。The White House announced the ed States intends to provide at least million in assistance related to countering violent extremism in East Africa.白宫宣布,美国准备提供至少4千万美元,用于与东非反恐相关的援助项目。Obama told reporters Monday Ethiopia has played a vital role in fighting the Somali militant group Al-Shabab.奥巴马星期一对记者说,埃塞俄比亚在打击索马里激进组织青年党的斗争中发挥了重要作用。 /201508/389946

A Chinese mother has become a walking dictionary by memorising the English-Chinese Dictionary from cowt to cover, reported the People#39;s Daily.一名中国妈妈成了活字典,她记住了整部英汉词典,《人民日报》报道。Li Yanzhi, 51, from Xi#39;an, Shaanxi Province, is able to explain the meaning of every single word in the 2 ,458-page book, which consists of 220,000 entries.今年51岁的李艳志来自西安,她能说出字典里每个单词的意思,总共2458页,包含了22万个词条。Ms Li, who divorced more than 20 years ago,undertook the mission in order to receive more translating work.李女士20多年前离婚,她背诵单词的目的是为了获得更多的翻译工作。This helps her support her 26-year-old son who suffers from autism and is not able to take care of himself.这样她才足以持自己26岁患有孤独症的没有自理能力的儿子。Ms Li is a lecturer in Financial English at Xian Transport University#39;s Economic and Banking School.李是西安交通大学经济与金融学院金融英语专业的一名老师。Since August 2013, she has been ing the dictionary six hours every day from 3am.自2013年8月份以来,她每天从凌晨3点钟开始阅读字典6个小时。Within 19 days, she finished the memorisation for the first time.在19天内,他第一次背熟了这本字典。According to People#39;s Daily, to succeed in the College English Test Band 6, which most university students in China are required to pass, the candidates need to understand 6,000 words.根据《人民日报》的报道,在大多数中国大学生都被要求通过的英语6级考试中,要想通过考试,就得记住6000个单词。In comparison, Ms Li#39;s vocabulary is extraordinary.相比之下,李女士的词汇量惊人。To help her memorising, Ms Li borrowed 465 English language magazines from the university library.为了帮助自己记忆,李女士从大学图书馆里借来了465本英语杂志。#39;My biggest dream is to enter The Brain to challenge myself, said Ms Li. The Brain is a popular reality TV show in China which uses a series of games, such as memorisation, to test the contestants#39; brainpower.;我最大的梦想是参加《最强大脑》挑战自己,;她说。《最强大脑》是中国的一款电视真人秀,使用一系列的游戏比如记忆来测试选手的智力。Ms Li said that son is autistic and cannot look after himself. Since her divorce more than 20 years ago, she and her son have been reliant on each other.她说儿子患有孤独症,无法照顾自己,自20多年前离婚以来,母子相依为命。As a single mother, Ms Li had to lock her son in the house whenever she went out for work. She said when she returned the house was always a complete mess.作为单亲妈妈,不管她什么时候出去工作都得把儿子锁在房子里。她说当她回到家里时,家里总是一团糟。But she said she never gave up.但是她说她从来就没有放弃过。#39;If I can fly I will fly, if I cant fly I will run, if I cannot run I will crawl,#39; she said.#39;No matter what you must move forward.#39;“如果我能飞,我就飞,如果我不能飞,我就跑。如果不能跑,我就爬,”她说。“无论发生什么,你都得向前进。”In order to improve their lives, Ms Li does translation work as a freelancer on top of her regular teaching. Through this,she has earned enough to buy herself a new apartment.为了提高生活水平,她除了教书外还做点翻译的兼职。现在她已经有钱购买一套新公寓了。Apart from English, Ms Li has learned to speak more than 10 different languages, including French, Russian, German,Japanese and Polish.除了英语,她还学会讲10多种不同的语言,包括法语,俄语,德语,日语和波兰语。She hopes that by memorising the 220,000 words from the dictionary, she can encourage students to learn English and increase their vocabulary.她希望通过记住这22万个单词可以激励学生们学习英语并提高词汇量。#39;Lecturer Li really is a living English-Chinese Dictionary,#39; says Zhang Xinjie, one of her students.她的一名学生说:;李老师真的是一部活的英汉词典。; /201503/363920

What should western politicians be most worried about: growth, inequality, the environment, education? To judge from today’s discourse, the answer seems to be none of the above. Instead, in the past month, both Barack Obama, US president, and David Cameron, UK prime minister, have made big speeches on immigration. At the weekend Swiss voters rejected a proposal virtually to end the flow of incomers to their country. But anti-immigration parties have made strong gains in a variety of other European nations, including Sweden and Italy, in the past year.西方政界人士最应该担忧的是什么?增长、不平等、环境还是教育?从当前流行话题来判断,似乎不在其中。相反,一个多月来,美国总统巴拉克#8226;奥巴马(Barack Obama)和英国首相戴维#8226;卡梅伦(David Cameron)都就移民问题发表了重要讲话。日前,瑞士选民否决了一项几乎不再接纳新移民的提案。但在过去一年中,反移民政党在其他多个欧洲国家——包括瑞典和意大利——取得了重大进展。Immigration is now clearly at the very centre of political debate in the west. But, in the past couple of weeks, the European and US debates have branched off in different directions.眼下,移民问题显然是西方政治辩论的核心。但在过去几周内,欧洲和美国在这一问题上的辩论走向出现了分化。Two weeks ago Mr Obama announced plans to shield millions of illegal immigrants from potential deportation. For all the bitter divisions his proposals stirred up, the likelihood is that they will ultimately help to push the American debate in a more liberal direction.不久前,奥巴马宣布了将使数百万非法移民免于被驱逐的计划。尽管他提议采取的措施激起了很大争议,最终却可能有助于推动美国移民辩论朝着自由主义的方向演变。In Europe, by contrast, the rise of populist anti-immigration parties, such as Britain’s UK Independence party and France’s National Front, is still driving the debate to the right.相比之下,英国独立党(UKIP)和法国国民阵线(National Front)等欧洲民粹主义反移民政党的崛起正将移民辩论推向更右倾的方向。Mr Cameron announced plans to restrict welfare benefits for legal migrants from the rest of the EU and to force those who fail to find a job to leave the country. Across the Channel, meanwhile, Nicolas Sarkozy, the former (and possibly future) president of France, has called for the repeal of the Schengen rules that have dismantled frontier controls within the EU.卡梅伦最近宣布的计划将限制来自欧盟其他国家的合法移民的福利,并强制那些没有找到工作的移民离境。与此同时,在英吉利海峡的另一边,法国前总统(或许以后还会再度担任总统)尼古拉#8226;萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)呼吁废止在欧盟境内取消边境管控的申根协定。Despite the differences in rhetoric, the immigration numbers across the rich world are strikingly similar. Estimates by the OECD of the foreign-born population in its member states in 2011 was 11-13 per cent for the US, the UK, Germany and France. Switzerland, with a foreign-born population of 27.3 per cent, is a real outlier – which might account for the special vehemence of the debate there.尽管论调不同,发达国家的移民数据却惊人地相似。据经合组织(OECD)估测,2011年在其成员国中,美国、英国、德国和法国的外国出生人口比例均在11%到13%之间。而瑞士的这一比例达27.3%,是发达国家中真正的异数,或许这也解释了为何瑞士的移民辩论格外激烈。Rich countries are clearly a magnet for migrants from poorer nations and the pull is growing stronger. According to the OECD, the flow of global migration doubled between 2000 and 2010, compared to the preceding decade.对来自较贫穷国家的移民来说,富裕国家显然就像一块磁石,而且吸引力还在不断增强。根据经合组织的数据,2000年到2010年间,全球移民的流动规模比上个十年翻了一番。Globalisation has made both travel and communication much easier. The comparative wealth of western Europe or North America is broadcast across the world. Established immigrant communities in developed nations can help newcomers and provide legal routes into the country. And, where there is no legal route, there are always people- smugglers and the black economy.全球化使旅行和通讯更加便利。西欧和北美的相对富裕在世界各地可谓家喻户晓。发达国家成熟的移民社区能帮助新来的移民,并提供进入该国的合法途径。而且,就算没有合法途径,也总会有蛇头和黑市经济。Immigrants often do jobs that locals are unwilling or unable to perform. But they are also routinely blamed for holding down wages and for putting pressure on public services and housing. With levels of inequality rising in the west, it is not hard for populist politicians to argue that limousine liberals are benefiting from cheap, immigrant labour– while evading the social consequences.移民常常从事本地人不愿或不能从事的工作。但人们也时常指责移民拉低了薪资水平,增大了公共务和住房的压力。随着西方的不平等程度持续上升,民粹主义政治人士也就可以很方便地宣称,坐豪车的自由派人士从廉价的移民劳动力中获益——同时还能不引起社会后果。So far, so similar. But the US and European approaches are diverging. Mr Obama has taken on the anti-immigration lobby, casting them as un-American and inhumane. In Britain and the rest of Europe, however, many governments are still promising to “crack down” on immigration, in some form or another – even if political leaders such as Mr Cameron refrain from challenging the EU’s commitment to free movement of labour.到这里,美国和欧洲的情况还很相似。但美欧的策略正在出现差异。奥巴马与反移民游说团体展开了较量,称他们是反美国精神和不人道的。而在英国和欧洲其他地方,许多政府还许诺以某种形式“打击”移民,尽管卡梅伦等政治领袖仍避免挑战欧盟关于劳动力自由流动的承诺。The difference partly reflects the fact that Mr Obama is a centre-left politician and Mr Cameron is a conservative. The US Democrats also see an electoral advantage in luring the Republicans into taking a hard line on immigration, which will alienate Hispanic voters.这种差异部分源于奥巴马是中左翼的政治人士,而卡梅伦是保守主义者。美国民主党人也发现,诱使共和党人在移民问题上采取强硬态度,会让他们疏远西班牙裔选民,在选举上对民主党有利。In Europe the political calculations point in the opposite direction. Mr Cameron fears losing support to Ukip, which has made opposition to mass immigration its central theme. Other centre-right politicians in the EU, such as Mr Sarkozy, also seem most concerned about the threat from the far right.在欧洲,政治考量则指向了相反的方向。卡梅伦担心选民会转而持以反对大量移民为中心议题的英国独立党。欧盟其他中右翼的政治人士,如萨科齐,似乎也极担忧来自极右翼政治势力的威胁。Behind the politics, however, there is also an emerging difference in philosophy. Mr Cameron, Mr Sarkozy and politicians to their right still stress the language of “control”. Their argument is that voters are unhappy about high levels of immigration and that it is their duty to respond.然而,在政治的背后,美欧之间的理念差异也开始浮现。卡梅伦、萨科齐和比他们更偏右的政治人士依然强调“控制”这种措辞。他们的论点是,既然选民对大量移民不满,他们就有责任做出回应。Mr Obama, though, is taking an approach that sounds more fatalistic. He says he will strengthen border controls but adds that “tracking down, rounding up and deporting millions of people isn’t realistic”.奥巴马采取的策略听起来更顺其自然一些。他表示将加强边境管控,但他也说“追查、围堵和驱逐数百万人是不现实的。”Implicit in the Obama argument is the idea that, in the era of globalisation, rich nations are just going to have to get used to the notion that they will continue to be a magnet for migrants from poorer parts of the world. The alternative is to start turning your country into a fortress or a police state.奥巴马的论点中隐含的意思是,在全球化时代,对来自世界更贫穷地方的移民来说,富国将继续保持磁石一般的吸引力,而富国只能去适应这一点。否则就会把国家变成一个堡垒或者极权国家。There are several reasons why the Obama argument might work in the US. As the president pointed out, America was built by immigrants. It is also a continent-sized country that has plenty of space. And it has an established two-party system that makes it harder for single-issue, anti-immigration parties to gain ground.奥巴马的论点可能在美国行得通有几点原因。正如他指出的,美国是移民建立起来的国家,幅员辽阔,地方很大。而且,两党制在美国建立已久,这使单一议题的反移民政党更难在美国取得进展。But none of those conditions prevail on the other side of the Atlantic. As a result, the populist right is likely to make the running in Europe’s immigration debate for some years to come.而大西洋彼岸的国家都不具备这些条件。因此,在接下来的许多年里,民粹主义右翼势力可能还将主导欧洲的移民辩论。 /201412/347318

The announcement of China’s gross domestic product figures this week hinted at the unwinding of the greatest growth narrative in history. From 1980 to 2009, China expanded by an average of 10.1 per cent annually, transforming the world’s most populous country into its second-largest economy. Now though – Chinese officials said as they announced the slowest quarterly GDP growth rate since the global financial crisis – we should prepare ourselves for a “new normal” of slower expansion. This anodyne expression, however, camouflages an unsettling reality: there is nothing normal about the vast pit of debt from which China must struggle to emerge.中国本周发布的国内生产总值(GDP)数据,暗示着历史上最伟大的增长故事正在走向结局。从1980年到2009年,中国经济以年均10.1%的速度增长,让全球人口最众多的国家成长为全球第二大经济体。现在,中国官员在宣布自全球金融危机以来最低的GDP季度增长数据时表示,要对较低增长的“新常态”做好准备。然而,如此淡定平和的表述掩盖了一个令人不安的现实:中国现在的债务大坑绝不应该成为常态,它必须奋力从中跳出来。Total Chinese debt has virtually doubled since the financial crisis to around 240 per cent of GDP, according to Fitch, the credit rating agency. This means that debt service charges, assuming an average interest rate of 7 per cent, are set to reach about 17 per cent of this year’s prospective GDP, or .7tn. To put this number into perspective, it is likely that Chinese debtors – including its government, agencies, companies and individuals – will end up paying an interest bill that is not far off the size of India’s GDP last year (.87tn) and considerably larger than the economies of South Korea (.3tn), Mexico (.26tn) and Indonesia (0bn).信用评级机构惠誉(Fitch)的数据显示,中国债务总额自全球金融危机以来几乎翻了一番,占到GDP的240%左右。这意味着,中国需要偿还的债务利息(假设平均利率为7%)将达到今年预计GDP的17%左右,即1.7万亿美元。也就是说,中国的债务人——包括政府、机构、公司和个人——最终偿还的债务利息很可能接近印度去年的GDP总值(1.87万亿美元),远远超过韩国(1.3万亿美元)、墨西哥(1.26万亿美元)和印尼(8700亿美元)等国的经济产值。More germane to China, though, is the drag that such debts exert on domestic dynamism. The burden of debt service – measured as a proportion of GDP – remained well below the country’s growth rate during the blistering period of Chinese “catch-up” growth from 1980 until 2009. Now, however, it stands at more than double the 7.3 per cent growth rate that the economy recorded in the third quarter. The implication of this is obvious: Chinese companies and individuals are increasingly preoccupied with repaying loans and correspondingly less inclined to invest or spend. In fact, the interest repayment burden has burgeoned so quickly that it now matches the .7tn that private companies invested in factories and equipment in the first nine months. It is also considerably more than the total invested so far this year on constructing and buying real estate.更重要的是,如此沉重的债务会削弱国内经济活力。从1980年到2009年“追赶性”增长期间,中国债务利息负担占GDP的比例远低于中国经济增速。然而,现在该比例是中国第三季度GDP增长率(7.3%)的两倍多。这样高的比例意味着:中国企业和个人越来越忙于应付偿还贷款,相应地就越来越不愿投资或出。实际上,利息负担迅速增长,现在已相当于私营企业今年前9个月在厂房和设备上的投资总额,也远远超过了今年迄今房地产建设和购买总金额。Debt fatigue is pernicious for an economy sustained by credit-fuelled investment. As GDP slows from 7.7 per cent last year while investment levels remain at 48 per cent of GDP, it is clear that China is deriving successively less “bang for its investment buck”. Herein lies the reason that Beijing appears less than likely to launch a round of debt-funded stimulus to bolster its sagging growth rate. Such a reprisal of its response to the financial crisis in 2009 would merely exacerbate the credit fatigue that is hobbling its dynamism.对一个依靠信贷驱动型投资维持的经济来说,“债务疲劳症” (Debt Fatigue)是有害的。GDP增长从去年的7.7%进一步放缓,同时投资水平依然占到GDP的48%,说明投资对经济增长的贡献在持续下降。正因为此,北京方面不太可能推出一轮由举债持的刺激方案来提升低迷的增长率。2009年那种对金融危机报复性的回应只会加剧信贷疲劳症,侵蚀经济活力。The problem for Beijing, though, is that the alternative to another round of stimulus is also strewn with pitfalls. Fitch estimates that if efforts to reduce an oversupply of real estate brought the number of vacant properties back to 2008 levels from its current level of about 28 per cent, it would haul GDP growth back to around 4 per cent – in line with most people’s definition of a “hard landing”.然而,北京面临的问题在于,不出台新一轮刺激同样困难重重。惠誉估计,如果北京方面着力解决房地产过度供应问题,使住房空置率从当前的28%回落到2008年的水平,那么GDP增长可能降至4%左右的水平——这已符合大多数人对“硬着陆”的定义。Thus it will require no small measure of nerve on Beijing’s part to navigate between an unsustainable credit splurge and a collapse in domestic demand that would hammer resource-exporting economies the world over. Nevertheless, the course that China has set toward reform, complemented by a squeeze on credit and overcapacity, is the only practical option. The alternative would be to continue feeding China’s unsustainable debt addiction. Just do not expect the “new normal” to be free from drama.因此,北京方面将需要具备不小的魄力,在不可持续的放贷热潮和国内需求崩溃之间寻找出路。如果中国国内需求崩溃,将会打击世界各地的资源出口国。然而,对中国来说,制定改革路线,再辅以紧缩信贷和削减过度产能,是目前唯一现实的选择。否则中国就会在不可持续的举债刺激的道路上越走越远。别以为“新常态”就会安安稳稳的。 /201410/337788


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