2019年09月22日 05:25:36|来源:国际在线|编辑:千龙爱问
China’s recent stock market turbulence and currency devaluation has attracted enormous attention from around the world—with a disproportionate amount focused on whether we are seeing the end ofChina’s growth story.中国近期的股市动荡及人民币贬值引起了全世界的极大关注,而这些关注过多地聚焦在中国的增长故事是否即将结束。True, many people lost a lot of money (though doubtless some also made a lot) and the reputation of the country’s economic managers has been badly damaged. The aftermath resulting from the meltdown will likely continue to be felt for at least several months, particularly by those private sector companies which have had to shelve plans to raise funds via initial public offerings.But unlike the global financial crisis of 2008, which resulted in a worldwide slowdown,China’s economic fundamentals are not shaky: its GDP growth is slowing, but a hard landing looks unlikely.的确,很多人都亏了不少钱(但可以肯定的是也有人赚了很多),而且中国经济管理者的声誉已严重受损。股市暴跌很可能会在至少数月内继续产生影响,尤其是对那些不得不搁置IPO融资计划的私营部门企业。但与导致全球经济放缓的2008年全球金融危机不同,中国经济的基本面仍然稳固:中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长正在放缓,但似乎不太可能出现硬着陆。Certainly this is what the government appears to believe.中国政府看来无疑相信这一点。Over the past few days, Premier Li Keqiang, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Minister of Finance Lou Jiwei have all acknowledged the global impact of China’s stock market crash and currency devaluation.近日,中国总理李克强、央行行长周小川以及财长楼继伟都承认,中国股市暴跌及人民币贬值造成了全球影响。But they also all stressed that China’s currency had now stabilised, suggesting we are highly unlikely to see any further major devaluation. And they also said they expected China’s growth to remain at around 7 per cent a year for the next half decade, and that during this period, the government would continue to implement structural reforms.但他们同时也都强调,人民币如今已经趋于稳定。这意味着人民币进一步大幅贬值的可能性非常小。他们还表示,预计未来5年中国经济年均增长将保持在7%左右,在此期间,中国政府将继续实施结构性改革。It is these reforms which really matter. If China can emerge by 2020 with its economy redirected towards consumption and services, and growth having averaged around 7 per cent along the way, its officials should have more than recovered their reputation for economic competency.真正重要的正是这些改革举措。如果中国到2020年能实现本国经济向消费和务驱动型转变、同时在此期间保持7%左右的年均增长,那中国官员何止将挽回自己在经济管理能力方面的声誉。What makes this 7 per cent figure credible is the fact that while some parts of the economy are clearly struggling — especially those sectors with huge over-capacity, such as steel, coal mining, aluminium and cement — a range of others remain hugely dynamic.使7%增速显得可信的事实是:虽然中国经济中的部分行业明显已经举步维艰(尤其那些产能严重过剩的行业,如钢铁、煤炭、铝和水泥),但其他众多行业仍保持巨大的活力。One example is smartphones, where an ever longer list of companies is continuously trying to muscle in on Xiaomi’s phenomenal success in displacing Apple and Samsung as China’s market leader.以智能手机为例——随着小米(Xiaomi)取代苹果(Apple)和三星(Samsung)成为中国市场领导者,其非凡的成功激励着越来越多的企业不断试图闯入这一行业拼杀。But Xiaomi’s rise has now been almost matched by another company, Huawei Technologies, which in the second quarter of this year nearly caught Xiaomi in terms of market share, with its 15.7 per cent share of shipments just a whisker behind Xiaomi’s 15.9 percent, according to market research firm Canalsys.但如今,小米的崛起几乎已被另一家公司——华为(Huawei Technologies)赶上。市场研究公司Canalsys的数据显示,今年第二季度,华为的市场份额已经接近赶上小米,其15.7%的发货量占比仅略低于小米的15.9%。Huawei’s emergence as a consumer products company is a major achievement – not least because it is also continuing to more than hold its own as the world’s biggest maker of telecoms infrastructure equipment, including a 20 per cent share of the world’s mobile infrastructure market.华为作为消费品公司的崛起是一项重大成就——何况该公司还继续牢牢保持着自己全球最大电信基础设备制造商的地位(包括占有全球移动基础设备市场20%的份额)。China’s e-commerce industry also continues to advance at hyper-speed. Alibaba’s share price may have dropped to below its issue price, partly because its revenue growth dropped to 34 per cent year-on-year in the quarter to June, down from a 45 per cent last year.中国电子商务行业也继续保持着超高的发展速度。阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的股价或许已经跌破发行价,部分原因在于该公司在截至6月季度的同比收入增长从去年的45%下滑至34%。But that is happening because it is seeing greater competition at home, notably from JD.com, China’s second biggest e-commerce company, which saw its revenues rose 61 per cent to .4bn during its second quarter.但这主要是国内竞争加剧造成的,特别是来自京东(JD.com)的压力,后者是中国第二大电商企业,今年第二季度收入增长61%,达到74亿美元。Tencent is another company benefiting from Alibaba’s slide in market value. This week it displaced Alibaba as China’s biggest internet business by market capitalisation banking on its record quarterly profits stemming from the continued success of its online games – responsible for more than half its revenues – and the more than 1bn users of its two free messaging apps, smartphone-based WeChat and PC-based QQ.腾讯(Tencent)是另外一家从阿里巴巴市值下滑中获益的公司。在创纪录的季度利润的撑下,本周腾讯取代阿里巴巴成为中国市值最大的互联网公司。腾讯在线游戏的持续成功(对其营收的贡献超过一半),以及两款免费通讯应用——基于智能手机的微信(WeChat)和基于个人电脑的QQ——超过10亿的用户推动了其利润增长。In short, while the country’s economy may no longer be a rising tide floating all boats, it will continue to generate many opportunities — some of them could be of major significance.简言之,尽管中国经济或许不再是足以浮起所有船只的不断上涨的潮水,但它将继续创造很多机会——其中一些可能具有重要意义。As China makes the shift from being manufacturing – and investment-driven to seeing services and private consumption take over – a key factor driving these opportunities will be the sharp rise in affluent households. According to a study by Cornell University, China’s middle class population will double in size from its current 300m people by 2025.随着中国从制造业和投资驱动型经济向务业和个人消费主导型经济转变,一个促成这些机会的关键因素将是富裕家庭的迅速增多。据康奈尔大学(Cornell University)一项研究显示,到2025年,中国中产阶级人口数量将从目前的3亿增加一倍。This continued rise in private demand will encourage companies to chase growth – providing they are producing the goods and services these people want.私人需求的持续上升,将鼓励企业去追逐业务增长——前提是它们提供的商品和务是人们想要的。For this to be extended to the rest of the economy, the government needs to accelerate the implementation of its aly announced financial and industrial reforms. Doing so will lead to further deregulation, further encouragement of competition, and further greater demand for value-adding innovation and entrepreneurship.为了让这种情况扩展至经济中的其他部分,中国政府需要加快实施其已宣布的金融和工业改革。这将意味着进一步放松管制,进一步鼓励竞争,以及促进对增值性创新和创业的需求。On top of the internet and consumer electronics, other sectors where private firms look likely to drive major advances include medical equipment and other healthcare related businesses, energy and transport, including electric vehicles.除互联网和消费类电子产品外,民营企业可能取得巨大进步的行业包括医疗设备和其他与医疗保健相关的领域、能源以及交通(包括电动汽车)。As the stock market stabilizes, the IPO plans and other fund raising plans would most likely return. Capital markets will continue to find good companies to invest in and vice versa, good companies will tap into the capital market for new funding.随着股市逐渐企稳,IPO及其他融资计划将有望重启。资本市场将继续寻找优质公司进行投资,反过来优质公司也将利用资本市场进行新融资。So while China growth is slowing, the rise of Chinese business is far from ending. Rather, if there is a moral that should be drawn from the market turbulence of recent weeks it is that rather than looking only to the Chinese government to drive growth, the world should also be looking more towards the country’s private sector.因此,尽管中国经济增长正在放缓,但是中国企业的崛起远远没有画上句号。如果说从最近几周的市场动荡中能得出什么教训的话,那就是,世界应该更多把目光放在中国私营部门身上,而不是一味指望中国政府来推动增长。China’s growth will inevitably continue to experience some ups and downs, and some cycles will be more pronounced than others. The country has produced a body of entrepreneurs who are willing to take risks, often enormous. They and their businesses are hungry and fast moving. A slowdown will test their resilience – and could well send many to the wall. But others will emerge stronger and they will ultimately be the force that carries the country forward.中国的经济增长将不可避免地继续经历起起伏伏,一些周期性现象可能会比其他国家更加突出。中国已经培养了一批甘于冒险(常常是巨大风险)的企业家。他们及他们的企业满怀渴望、行动迅速。经济放缓将考验他们的适应能力——可能会使很多企业陷入绝境。但是,其他企业将变得更加强大,并将最终成为推动中国前进的力量。Edward Tse is CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, a global strategy consulting firm with roots in China, and is author of the recently released book China’s Disruptors: How Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Other Companies are Changing the Rules of Business本文作者为植根于中国的全球战略咨询公司高风咨询公司(Gao Feng Advisory Company)的首席执行官、近期出版的新书《中国的商业颠覆者:阿里巴巴、小米、腾讯等公司正在如何改变商业规则》(China’s Disruptors: How Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Other Companies are Changing the Rules of Business)的作者 /201509/399107

China’s surging demand for luxury furniture and a revived cultural tradition are not only taking a toll on the forests of its Southeast Asian neighbors but also fueling a deadly crime wave across the region, according to an environmental monitoring group.一家环境监测机构称,中国对豪华家具高涨的需求以及文化传统的复兴,不仅破坏了东南亚邻国的森林,还在整个地区引发了一波犯罪狂潮,甚至有人因此丧命。A new report by the London-based Environmental Investigation Agency says that illegal logging and corruption have contributed to the near extinction of Siamese rosewood (Dalbergia cochinchinensis), an increasingly rare tropical hardwood found in countries in the Mekong region, including Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.总部位于伦敦的环境调查署(Environmental Investigation Agency)最新发布的报告称,非法砍伐和腐败行为已成为交趾黄檀几近消亡的一个原因。这种热带硬木生长在湄公河流域国家,包括泰国、越南、老挝和柬埔寨,现在已越来越稀有。Laws in these countries ban either logging or exporting the timber, but Chinese demand for the richly hued wood, known in Chinese as lao hongmu, literally “old redwood,” is so high that it is driving illegal logging and smuggling across the region, the report says, based on investigations over the past decade.lt;BRgt;“From 2000-13, China imported a total of 3.5 million cubic meters of hongmu timber,” it says. “Nearly half of China’s hongmu imports since 2000 — amounting to 1,666,471 cubic meters valued at nearly .4 billion — came from the Mekong.”这份报告是根据过去10年的调查得出的。报告中称,这些国家的法律都禁止砍伐和出口这种木材,但中国对这种色浓艳的木材(在中国被称为“老红木”)需求如此之高,因而推动了整个地区的非法砍伐和走私活动。“从2000到2013年,中国共进口了350万立方米的红木木材。2000年以来,几乎一半的中国红木进口——1666471立方米,价值将近24亿美元(约合150亿元人民币)——来自湄公河流域。”Surveys in recent years found just up to 100,000 of the trees remaining in Thailand and very few in the neighboring countries.近几年的调查发现,目前在泰国最多还有10万棵交趾黄檀,在邻国则几乎绝迹。The depleted forests are difficult to restore. They take “50 to 100 years before they are producing timber,” Jago Wadley, a senior forest campaigner with the Environmental Investigation Agency, said in an interview.砍伐殆尽的森林很难恢复。需要“50到100年才能产出木材”,环境调查署的高级森林项目负责人杰戈·沃德利(Jago Wadley)在接受采访时说。Beyond the biological toll, there is a human one, when illegal loggers encounter enforcement officers, the agency found.该机构发现,受到威胁的不光是树木,还有人命,比如当非法砍伐者遭遇执法人员时。“The tools of the trade are chainsaws, guns and even rocket-propelled grenade launchers,” the report said. “Since 2009, dozens of forest rangers have been killed” in Thailand in shootouts with loggers from remote villages or Cambodia, it continued. Forty-five Cambodian loggers were “reportedly shot dead by Thai forces in 2012 alone.”“这个行当使用的工具是链锯、,甚至火箭筒,”报告写道。在泰国,“自2009年以来,有数十名护林员遇害”,原因是在森林中遭遇盗伐者时发生战。那些盗伐者来自偏远的农村或柬埔寨。据报道有45名柬埔寨盗伐者“被泰国军队射杀,而这只是2012年一年的数字。”As part of their work monitoring the trade, the agency’s undercover investigators met with traders who paid villagers from impoverished communities in cash or in methamphetamines to harvest the trees, and eventually sold the timber to dealers in China, often bribing government officials along the way, said Faith Doherty, a forest campaign team leader for the agency.作为监管工作的一部分,环境调查署的卧底调查人员见到了一些商人,他们以现金或毒品作为报酬,让贫穷村落的村民砍伐这些木材,并最终把木材卖给中国的交易商,在此过程中常常要贿赂政府官员,该组织森林保护项目负责人费斯·多尔蒂(Faith Doherty)说。“Sometimes it can take us two to three years before we start to see a real picture emerging and who the actual actors are behind it,” Ms. Doherty said in an interview.多尔蒂在接受采访时说,“有时我们要花费两三年的时间,才能弄明白真实的状况和背后的参与者。”Trade data from the Chinese authorities and ed Nations Comtrade, a ed Nations-run trade database, was also used to piece together how remote forests in the Mekong area are being cut down to meet the “unprecedented” demand in China, Ms. Doherty said.多尔蒂说,为了探究湄公河流域遥远森林中的树木遭到砍伐,最终满足中国“前所未有”的需求的整个过程,也使用了中国政府和联合国(ed Nations)贸易统计数据库Comtrade的贸易数据。Rosewood has been highly prized for fine furniture in China since at least the Ming dynasty, about 600 years ago. But consumption did not reach the unsustainable levels noted in the agency’s report until recently, as the economic boom since the 1980s unleashed an appetite for luxury goods long suppressed under Mao Zedong.至少从大约600年前的明代开始,红木家具在中国就已经备受推崇。但直到最近,红木的消费才达到了报告中所指出的那种不可持续的水平。对豪华商品的需求在毛泽东时代曾长期受到压抑,到上世纪80年代以来的经济繁荣中才爆发起来。“In the past 30 years, China went through twice as much of Asia’s Siamese rosewood resource as it did” over the five centuries of “the Ming and Qing dynasties combined,” said Yu Hongyan, a collector of rosewood furniture and timber living in Beijing. “Unfortunately, China’s history of furniture-making is essentially a history of forest depletion.”“中国过去30年用掉的”亚洲红木资源,“是明清两朝加起来的两倍,”现居北京的红木家具和木材收藏家于鸿雁说。“中国家具史大致也是一部采伐史。”The surge in consumption has sent prices skyrocketing. In 2011, investigators found a rosewood bed in Shanghai retailing for million. Prices for fine rosewood furniture quadrupled in China in 2013, according to the Chinese Redwood Committee, an industry association. And it predicts a “steady rise in prices” in 2014, a forecast that so far appears on track.消费量的激增使价格一路飙升。2011年,调查人员发现,上海一张红木床的零售价高达100万美元。行业协会中国红木委的数据显示,高级红木家具的价格在2013上涨了三倍。该机构预测,红木家具的价格2014年将稳中有升,这一预测迄今为止似乎已经得到实。Cultural tradition is not the sole driver of the bullish rosewood market. Speculation is also playing a role. Newly rich Chinese need a safe place to park their fortunes, Mr. Yu said. “The housing market and the stock market have not been strong,” he said. “People now invest in rosewood as an alternative to stocks.”文化传统并非驱动红木市场火爆行情的唯一因素,投机行为也起到了一定作用。中国的新贵需要一个安全的地方来储存财富,于鸿雁表示。“这几年房市股市不怎么好,因此红木木材和家具开始作为一种理财产品出现,”他说。“人们炒作红木就像炒股票一样。”Siamese rosewood had been listed as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature since 1998. Then, last year, the species was listed as “endangered” on Appendix II to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species, or Cites, banning all timber exports without a Cites permit.从1998年起,国际自然保护联盟(International Union for Conservation of Nature)就把交趾黄檀列为“脆弱”物种。去年,《濒危野生动植物种国际贸易公约》(Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species,简称Cites)在附录二中将其列为“濒危”物种,如果没有Cites的许可,禁止所有交趾黄檀木材的出口。However, the Cites ban only covers logs, sawed timber and veneers, a loophole in its enforcement that the Environmental Investigation Agency has urged Cites parties to close.不过,Cites的禁令只涵盖原木、锯好的木材和木板,环境调查署已经敦促Cites的各缔约方弥补这个漏洞。“The traders now can crudely process the timber in the source country and then export it as furniture, circumventing the ban,” Mr. Yu said.于鸿雁说,“商人可以在产地粗加工,然后作为家具半成品进口,这样就避开了Cites的禁令。”Addressing the demand side of the trade, the agency’s report calls on China to halt imports of all rosewood from the Mekong region until the source countries produce evidence that any future exports will not threaten their Siamese rosewood populations and therefore are sustainable.为了应对木材贸易的需求,该机构的报告呼吁中国暂停所有从湄公河区域进口红木的活动,直到来源国家拿出据,明未来的出口不会威胁到该国交趾黄檀的数量,因而是可持续的。 /201405/299859

As gyrations in China’s stock market captivated the world’s attention in recent months, less eye-catching but ultimately more important changes were under way in the country’s Rmb133tn (tn) market for bank deposits.最近几个月,中国股市的大幅震荡引起了全球的关注。然而,在中国133万亿元人民币(合21万亿美元)的存款市场,却在发生一些不那么吸引眼球、但本质上更加重要的变化。Chinese lenders sold certificates of deposit to the public at unregulated interest rates for the first time in the second quarter, the central bank has revealed, marking a milestone in the government’s push to let market forces set the price of money.中国央行透露,今年第二季度,中国多家首次以不受监管的利率面向公众发行大额存单。在中国政府展开的让市场力量成为资金成本决定因素的努力中,此举有着里程碑式的意义。Eliminating government control over interest rates is seen as a crucial step in shifting China’s growth model away from state-directed investment and forcing banks to allocate funds more efficiently.要使中国的增长模式摆脱对政府主导的投资的依赖、并迫使更有效地配置资金,取消政府对利率的控制被视为关键的一步。The longstanding cap on bank deposit rates has ensured a plentiful supply of low-cost capital for state factories and public infrastructure projects but has also led to wasteful investment and spiralling debt.长期以来对存款利率施加的上限,确保了国有工厂及公共基建项目能够获得充裕的廉价资金供应。然而,这也催生了大量无效投资和不断攀升的债务。Cheap deposit funding has also discouraged banks from seeking out smaller borrowers willing to pay higher interest rates, since lenders earn fat margins even on conservative loans. Now, as China seeks growth based on efficiency gains rather than the construction of more new factories, roads and houses, it wants banks to lend more to companies that generate higher returns.廉价的存款资金,还导致不愿费力寻找那些愿付较高利率的中小借款者,因为即使是保守的贷款也能给带来丰厚的利润。如今,在中国试图通过提高效率而不是建设更多新工厂、公路和住房实现增长之际,中国政府希望向能产生更高回报的企业多放贷。“Promoting CDs substantively achieves partial interest-rate marketisation and is necessary preparation for full liberalisation of deposit rates,” said Li Kelin, economist at Minsheng Securities in Shanghai.上海民生券(Minsheng Securities)经济学家李奇霖表示:“推广大额存单在实质上实现了利率的部分市场化,是对全面放开存款利率管制的必要准备。”The deposit-rate ceiling is the one remaining interest rate still set by government fiat, after the People’s Bank of China removed the floor on bank lending rates in 2013. Bond and money-market interest rates aly float freely.2013年中国央行取消贷款利率下限后,存款利率上限就成了仅剩的一个仍由政府指令设定的利率。目前,中国债券利率和货币市场利率已经能够自由浮动。Market-based interest rates are also a key criterion that the International Monetary Fund will use to decide whether it will endorse the renminbi as an official reserve currency later this year. Zhou Xiaochuan, PBoC governor, said in March that the deposit-rate cap could be lifted by the end of 2015.今年晚些时候国际货币基金组织(IMF)决定是否授予人民币“官方储备货币”身份时,市场化的利率也是一项关键评判指标。3月份,中国央行行长周小川表示,存款利率限制或将在今年底前取消。Chinese lenders issued Rmb682bn in certificates of deposit to companies and individuals in June and July, the PBoC said in its quarterly monetary policy report published on Friday. “In the course of interest-rate marketisation, many countries have used large-denomination certificates of deposit as an important method for pushing ahead with reform,” the central bank said.中国央行在上周五发布的季度货币政策报告中表示,今年6月和7月,中国各向企业和个人发行了6820亿元人民币大额存单。中国央行表示:“从国际经验看,不少国家在存款利率市场化的过程中,都曾以发行大额存单作为推进改革的重要手段。”Chinese certificates of deposit currently require a minimum investment of Rmb30,000 for individuals and Rmb10m for companies. The high threshold is designed to limit their mass-market appeal, thus avoiding an abrupt rise in banks’ funding costs as customers switch from regulated to unregulated deposits. But analysts expect these thresholds will gradually be lowered.目前,中国的大额存单要求,个人投资者认购起点金额不低于30万元人民币,机构投资者认购起点金额不低于1000万元人民币。这一高门槛旨在限制它们对大众市场的吸引力,避免因投资者从受监管的存款转向不受监管的存款而导致资金成本飙升。不过,分析师预计这些门槛会逐渐降低。The central bank has cut benchmark interest rates four times since November to boost the slowing economy. But it has also granted banks increased freedom to set actual deposit rates above the benchmark. Deposit rates are now allowed to float as much as 50 per cent above the benchmark, up from only 10 per cent before November last year.自去年11月以来,为提振放缓的经济,中国央行已四次下调基准利率。但它同时也赋予更大的自由度来将实际存款利率设定在基准利率之上。目前,存款利率允许比基准利率上浮至多50%,而去年11月前至多只能上浮10%。In practice, the PBoC has informally instructed large banks not to raise deposit rates by the legal limit, in order to prevent them from passing higher funding costs on to borrowers amid a slowing economy.在实际操作中,中国央行非正式地指示大型不要把存款利率提高至法定上限处。此举的目的是在经济放缓之际,防止这些将更高的资金成本转嫁给借款方。Bank certificates of deposit were sold in recent months at 40 per cent above the benchmark — still below the legal limit for normal deposits but above the rate big banks are actually offering for normal deposits.最近几个月发售的大额存单,利率比基准利率高40%。这一利率仍低于一般存款的法定上限,但高于大型一般存款的实际存款利率。 /201508/392140

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