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Household wealth家庭财富The balance-sheet boom资产负债表的繁荣Household wealth, and debt, is forecast to swell in 2015预计2015年家庭财富和债务将膨胀WITH the excesses of Christmas nearly over, Britons are planning their budgets for the new year. Their decisions will be crucial for the economy. After paying down debts to repair their balance-sheets in the years after the financial crisis, consumers are spending again. Yet wealth, like wages, remains lower than in 2007. A recovery in riches is an essential component of official forecasts for further growth.随着圣诞节购物狂潮接近尾声,英国人开始进行新一年的规划预算。他们的决定对经济状况至关重要。金融危机之后几年,在偿还完资产负债表的债务后,消费者们又开始消费了。然而家庭财富和工资一样,仍然低于2007年。财富复苏是官方预测未来发展的一个必要因素。When the financial crisis hit, wealth immediately suffered (unlike real wages, which hardly budged in 2008 but have fallen every year since). Household net worth—ie, assets minus debts—plummeted by 12% in 2008, driven by a 13% fall in housing wealth, which makes up just under half of all household assets. The hole is not yet filled: adjusting for inflation, housing wealth—168,000 (1,000) per household—remains 13% below its pre-crisis peak. Financial wealth, which includes investments in stocks and shares, has fared slightly better, but is still down 4% on 2007.当金融危机袭来时,财富首当其冲遭受损害(不像实际的工资,2008年勉强回升但从那以后逐年下降)。家庭净值,也就是资产减去债务,在2008年骤然下降了12%,这是受了约占家庭资产一半的房屋财富下降13%的影响。这个窟窿至今还没有被填上:通货膨胀调整、家庭财富(每户168,000英镑(261,000)美元)保持在比危机前峰值低13%的水平。包括股票投资在内的金融财富稍有起色,但仍比2007年低7%。As a result, households reduced their debts from 2008. Savings jumped from around 7% of income pre-crisis to 11% by 2010. By 2013 the average household had 62,000 worth of debt, down 16% in real terms on 2007. Largely as a result of this frugality, household net worth, which averaged 320,000 in 2013, has recovered about half its losses from the crisis.其结果就是,自2008年以来,家庭减少了债务。危机前约占收入7%的储蓄在2010年达到了11%。2013年,每家约有62,000镑的债务,扣除物价因素比2007年降低了16%。在这种俭省的影响下,2013年平均为320,000英镑的家庭净值已挽回了危机中一半的损失。That suggests that balance-sheets are not fully patched up. Yet consumers have been spending more; since 2013 saving has hovered around its pre-crisis level. And forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Britains fiscal watchdog, see it falling further still, from 6.6% of income in 2014 to 5.4% in 2015 and then 4.8% by 2019.这表明资产负债表并没有完全被修补好。然而消费者已经开始增加出了,自2013年,储蓄就在危机前水平左右徘徊。英国财政监督部门预算责任办公室(OBR)预测,储蓄将会进一步下降,从2014年收入的6.6%下降到2015年的5.4%,然后到2019年的4.8%。Several factors lie behind the reversal. Better employment prospects mean workers are less in need of rainy-day funds. They might also expect wage growth and want to borrow against that future income. But the most significant factor is recent house-price growth, which boosts homeowners wealth without them needing to save. House prices are up 17.5% on average since 2012 (30% in London) and the OBR reckons a further rise of 7.4% is on the cards in 2015.这个逆转背后有几个因素。更好的就业前景意味着工人们没那么需要雨天基金了。他们也可以期望涨工资和预工资。但最重要的一个因素就是最近的房价增长,这使房主的财富增长,不需要存钱了。自2012年以来,房价平均上涨了17.5%(伦敦上涨了30%)。OBR预测2015年可能会进一步上涨7.4%。It was a housing boom that allowed the aggregate debt-to-income ratio to reach a record high of close to 170% before the crisis. The OBR now forecasts another balance-sheet boom, with debt surpassing its pre-crisis high in 2017 and reaching 184% of income by 2020.正是房屋市场的繁荣让整体上的债务收入比达到了历史新高,约是危机前的170%。OBR预测将有新一轮资产负债表繁荣,债务将在2017年超过危机前最高水平,在2020年达到收入的184%。This is troubling. If puffed-up house prices prove temporary—as in 2007—high debt could leave households vulnerable and harm the financial system. Housing is illiquid, meaning that in a crisis fire-sales can cause prices to fall rapidly. Even at current levels—146% of income—the Bank of England rightly frets about household debt, and in October limited the number of high-risk mortgages banks can issue (the market has cooled slightly since). The banks concern makes the OBRs forecast look either wrong or terrifying.这很棘手。如果和2007年一样膨胀的房价只是暂时的,高额债务可能让家庭财富不堪一击并损害到财政系统。住房是不动产,意味着在危机大甩卖中,房价可能骤跌。即使在现在水平——收入的146%,英国央行担忧家庭债务也无可厚非,在10月份,央行限制了能提供高风险抵押贷款的数(自那以后市场就稍微冷却了)。央行的担忧使得OBR的预测看起来要么错了,要么令人惊恐。In addition, saving is lower than the figures suggest, according to a recent working paper by John Ralfe, a pensions consultant, and Bernard Casey of Warwick University. The (recently revised) statistics fail to count pension payouts as running down savings. Adjust for this and the savings rate fell to -0.2% in 2013 and will become more sharply negative if the OBR forecast is borne out. So much for an end to Christmas excess.另外,根据养老金顾问约翰·拉尔夫和华威大学的伯纳德·卡西的一篇工作论文所说,实际储蓄比数据显示的要低。(最近修订的)数据没有将养老金出当作储蓄流失算进去。对此进行调整后,2013年的储蓄率下降到了-0.2%,如果OBR的预测成真,那这一负数将更大。这就是本次圣诞购物狂欢的大体状况。译者:王颖 校对:毛慧 译文属译生译世 /201501/352549

Germanys far left德国左派的胜利Thuringias November revolution图林根州的十一月革命It may become the first state run by the heirs of East Germanys communists图林根州也许会成为第一个由东德共产党继承者执政的联邦州Ramelow on the high road to power拉梅罗可谓平步青云NEXT weekend Germany celebrates the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Yet a few days before that, Die Linke (The Left), the party that descends from the communists who ran the old East Germany, may take charge of one of reunified Germanys 16 states (Thuringia) for the first time.下个周末,德国将庆祝柏林墙倒塌25周年。然而在几天前,源于前东德共产党的德国左翼党可能第一次执政图林根州—德国十六州之一。The mainstream parties treat The Left as pariahs in the federal Bundestag. The party jeers from the backbenches and fights internal vendettas. It hates capitalism and wants to scrap NATO. In debates over Ukraine many Leftists have blamed America more than Russias Vladimir Putin. Their parliamentary leader, Gregor Gysi, refuses to call the East German regime an “unjust state”.左党一直被主流政党视为德国联邦议院的贱民,因为其后座议员的地位以及党内斗争而受到其他政党的嘲笑。他们厌恶资本主义并打算让北约解体。在乌克兰之争中, 许多左派人士倾向于指责美国而不是俄罗斯。左党的议会领袖Gregor Gysi拒绝称东德政权是一个“不公正的国家”。In state and local governments in eastern Germany, however, The Left has become a home for many Ossis (Easterners), who tend to be apolitical and feel vaguely frustrated. They vote Left partly for reasons of “Ostalgie”. In Brandenburg The Left governs boringly as junior partner in a “red-red” coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD). But Thuringia presents a new opportunity. In its election in September the Christian Democrats (CDU), the party of Chancellor Angela Merkel, came first, with 33%. But The Left came a strong second with 28%. It could now eke out a tiny majority if it combined with the other two left-leaning parties: the SPD and the Greens.但是在东德的州政府和地方政府中,左党变成了Ossis (东德人)的大本营,东德人似乎不关心政治,茫然失落。他们以“东德情结”为由给左党投票。在勃兰登堡,左党以“红红”联盟中社会民主党人(SPD)的新合伙人身份进行沉闷无趣的统治管理。但是图林根提供了一个新的机遇。在9月份的选举中,以德国总理安吉拉·默克尔为领袖的基民盟(CDU),以33%的选票位列第一。左党来势汹汹,以28%的持率暂居第二。如果左党可以和其他两个左倾政党:社民党和绿党联合的话,就能以微小的优势成为多数党。To many on Germanys centre-left such a “red-red-green” alliance is the holy grail at the federal level to replace governments led by Mrs Merkel. In Thuringia (as in the rest of Germany) the CDU rules in coalition with the SPD. The SPD has paid dearly there, winning a meagre 12% of the vote in September. So the states Social Democrats want to try joining with The Left and the Greens instead. Thuringias 4,300 SPD members are expected to say yes to the idea on November 4th. The Left could lead its first-ever state government by December.对于那些持中左派“红红绿”联盟的人来说,以默克尔为首的政府下台真是一件在联邦层次大快人心的事情。图林根州(德国其他州也一样)由基民盟和社民党联合执政。社民党在图林根州付出了高昂的代价,却仅仅在9月的选举中获得了微薄的12%的选票。所以该州的社民党转而联合左党和绿党。图林根州中4300社民党人想在11月4号对这个想法表示持。如果这样,左党可能在12月份首次执政联邦州。Its premier would be Bodo Ramelow. A western transplant in Thuringia, he personally brings no baggage from East German times. And although he was a firebrand unionist once, he counts as a moderate by The Lefts standards. Thuringians fret less about him than about the stability of a government that would have only a one-seat majority.左党的领袖将会是拉梅罗。受图林根西德文化的影响,拉梅罗个人行事并不受前东德色的影响。尽管他曾经是极具煽动性的工会主义者,但按左党标准看来却是一个温和派。相比于拉梅罗,图林根州人更担心一席多数政府的稳定问题。The overarching question is whether a red-red-green government in Thuringia could foreshadow a similar experiment in the Bundestag (albeit with an SPD chancellor). It would be much harder to do in national politics, where foreign and security policy cleaves a wide gulf between the two red parties. And yet the SPD is in a terrible bind. Increasingly, it merely holds the stirrups for others to mount: Mrs Merkel in Berlin, now Mr Ramelow in Erfurt. The SPDs thirst for national power may yet force it to turn to The Left in the Bundestag.现在首要的问题在于出现在图林根的红红绿政府是否同样会出现在联邦议会中(尽管现在由社民党执政)。这种情况在国家政治中更难实现,因为这两个红色政党在外交和安全政策上存在巨大的鸿沟。但社民党处于可怕的窘境中。它逐渐让其他政党顺势上位:柏林的基民盟,现在埃尔福特的左党。社民党党对国家权力的极度渴望可能会迫使他转向联邦议院的左党。 译者:胡雅琳 校对:王颖 译文属译生译世 /201506/380157

But that pales into insignificance when compared to the daily vertical migration of these microscopic animals called zooplankton.但是当和每天在珊瑚礁墙上垂直活动的浮游生物相比它显得又是那么微不足道。At sunset,all of these tiny creatures swim upwards,and, under cover of darkness,they graze on floating algae close to the surface.日落之时所有这些微小的生物都向上游,在黑暗的掩护下,它们去吃靠近水面的海藻。Many of them are fish larvae.它们中有很多是鱼类的幼虫。In fact, almost every fish species on the Great Barrier Reef starts life in the plankton.事实上大堡礁上的几乎每种鱼的生命都是从浮游生物开始的。There are billions upon billions of them making the roundtrip, the greatest daily migration on Earth.每天都有数十亿只浮游生物进行着这场双程旅行,这是地球上最伟大的动物迁徙。They all travel an extraordinary distance,size for size, it would be like me running a marathon twice a day.它们都要游非常远的距离,如果按比例算的话就像我每天跑两次马拉松一样。Thats if theyre not caught on the way up.但是前提是它们在路上没有被捕食。On the reef wall, at about 150 metres deep,are huge sea fans.在珊瑚墙上,大约150深处是巨大的柳珊瑚。They look like plants, but theyre colonies of animals,whose branching arms capture the rising plankton.它们看起来像植物,但是实际上是动物的栖息地,它们的枝叉都被上浮的浮游生物占领了。Hidden amongst the branches is a pygmy seahorse.躲藏在树枝之间的是一只小海马。Its a tiny fish that also feeds on plankton.它们是一种以浮游动物为食的鱼类。At little more than a centimetre long, fully grown,its one of the worlds smallest fish.它们长成也不超过一厘米长,它是世界上最小的鱼之一。 译文属201511/411490


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